Wednesday, September 20, 2023

NFL Week 3 Picks

As posted at ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em site (straight picks, no spreads, etc., and I've created a group for those who would like to play along with me):

  • San Francisco 49ers beat New York Giants
  • Tennessee Titans beat Cleveland Browns*
  • Detroit Lions beat Atlanta Falcons
  • New Orleans Saints beat Green Bay Packers
  • Miami Dolphins beat Denver Broncos
  • Minnesota Vikings beat Los Angeles Chargers
  • New York Jets beat New England Patriots*
  • Washington Commanders beat Buffalo Bills*
  • Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans
  • Baltimore Ravens beat Indianapolis Colts
  • Seattle Seahawks beat Carolina Panthers
  • Kansas City Chiefs beat Chicago Bears
  • Dallas Cowboys beat Arizona Cardinals
  • Pittsburgh Steelers beat Las Vegas Raiders
  • Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Los Angeles Rams beat Cincinnati Bengals*

Asterisks indicate "upset" picks -- that is, my pick disagreed with the majority of players as of the time I made it (if I have time, I may swing back to see if that's changed, and change asterisks accordingly -- but any changes to the picks as listed will be prior to kickoff and noted in an update here).

Once again, I've picked four "upsets." The pick most likely to change at this point is the Rams vs. the Bengals. Burrow's injury is clearly a huge problem for the Bengals, and as others have said, he and the team would probably be best off if he sat a couple of weeks out to let it fully heal instead of continuing to aggravate it while trying to play through it. If he decides to do that, I'll have a look at his backup quarterback's reputation and possibly reverse myself.

For various reasons, I am bullish on the Commanders and Titans, not very impressed with the Bills so far this year, and think the Patriots are on a downhill slide at the moment.

Wordle 823 Hint

Hint: A kind of trap, or a kind of drum.


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First Letter: S

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Unlike Some, I'm Not Outraged ...

... that Elon Musk claims he's going to transition X (formerly known as Twitter) to a "paying customers only" platform.

I do think the whole idea is incredibly stupid. Just like I thought him buying the platform in the first place was dumb (and wrote about that at the time).

Supposedly it's about making it harder for bots to infest the platform, but I suspect the cost of building better bot detectors/terminators would be far less than the ad revenue losses from yet another reduction in active user base.

But that's his call to make. Any parting of the ways will be, so far as I'm concerned, amicable. If I don't generate enough ad revenue for him to be happy to have me there, and if I'm not willing to pay out of pocket to be there, no biggie.

NFL Week 2 Outcomes

My picks (posted here), with "Tom was right" picks in green and "Tom was wrong" picks in red:

  • Philadelphia Eagles beat Minnesota Vikings
  • Green Bay Packers beat Atlanta Falcons
  • Buffalo Bills beat Las Vegas Raiders
  • Cincinnati Bengals beat Baltimore Ravens
  • Detroit Lions beat Seattle Seahawks
  • Tennessee Titans beat Los Angeles Chargers*
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Chicago Bears
  • Kansas City Chiefs beat Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Houston Texans beat Indianapolis Colts*
  • San Francisco 49ers beat Los Angeles Rams
  • New York Giants beat Arizona Cardinals
  • Dallas Cowboys beat New York Jets
  • Washington Commanders beat Denver Broncos*
  • Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots
  • New Orleans Saints beat Carolina Panthers
  • Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cleveland Browns*

I'd say 12-4 is pretty good. And of the four "upsets" I predicted (defined as going against the majority picks as of the time I made them), I got three right!

I'm doing my picks at ESPN's PigSkin Pick'Em. I'm in the 98.5 percentile for accuracy there and rank 14,47th with an overall record of 22-10. I've set up a group that you can join if you'd like to see how your predictions stack up against mine (and those of other people who join the group).

Wordle 822 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle could mean "near," "shut," or "conclude."


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First Letter: C

Monday, September 18, 2023

It's Been Real, It's Been Fun, It's Even Been Real Fun ... But I'm Done

My term on the Gainesville-Alachua County Bicycle/Pedestrian Advisory Board expires at the end of October.

The next scheduled meeting of the BPAB is in November.

The practice is that unless I've let them know I'm resigning, I'm considered a member until they name a replacement or I ask to be, and am, reappointed

Which means that if I just stop showing up without resigning, they could have a quorum problem.

So I sent my resignation note (effective October 31) in the other day.

I enjoyed the experience. As for how much good I accomplished, I can't say.

It's an "advisory board," which means that all we do is recommend things to the Gainesville City Commission and the Alachua County Commission.

What we usually recommend is heavily based on the staff recommendations of the Gainesville Urbanized Area Metropolitan Transportation Planning Organization, which is a body responsible for turning federal funding into actual things -- roads, road improvements, sidewalk, bike trails, etc.

I am pleased to report that the board doesn't always just look at the staff recommendation and rubber-stamp it. We're more likely to amend the staff recommendation than just pass it outright. "That item calls for a stoplight. A traffic circle makes more sense." Or "this pedestrian crosswalk proposal covers every intersection except one in that area, that one should be included too." That kind of thing. But the board does actually look at the staff recommendations, question them, and sometimes decide they're deficient.

There was a fairly recent debate on which my decision could plausibly be described as "from the left."

The debate involved the staff recommendation on an item for the 2050 (yes, you read that right) transportation plan, which basically came down to "widen Archer Road out in the county west of Gainesville."

The rationale: Suburban sprawl is continuing to move in that direction, lots of the people living in that sprawl commute to and from Gainesville on a daily basis, and it's going to take fatter pipes to accommodate all ever-increasing that auto traffic.

My position was that we (the board making the recommendation) shouldn't just take increased auto traffic as some kind of automatic never-ending phenomenon. While I didn't get into every point below, I did get through some of them, and at one point I was told by another board member that we need to be "realistic" about future traffic needs. He didn't say I was being utopian, but it was strongly implied. 

My points (I can't remember which ones I got to in the debate):

  • We keep hearing about low fertility rates and eventual population decline. It's not obvious that, 27 years from now, there will be as many people needing to get from Point A to Point B as there now. And it's not just population decline ...
  •  Home delivery of goods -- Amazon, Instacarts, etc. -- has exploded over the last decade. Which means that instead of eight cars/pickups/SUVs going to the grocery store and back or whatever, there are often two vans delivering to all eight households.
  • Self-driving cars aren't quite "here" yet in a big way, but they're coming. It's very possible that future developments, especially of the "senior friendly" variety, will offer, as part of their package, sharing of X number of self-driving cars per Y households, but at least notionally conditioned on carpooling to the major area employer (University of Florida) so that you have four people in one car instead of four people in four cars.
  • Fewer people are driving for "entertainment." It's streamed directly to their households now.
  • While the "15-minute city" idea is controversial, over the last decade and more I've seen developers building small equivalents -- developments with mixed house/apartment/condo options and a "main street" with a small grocery store, perhaps a doctor/dentist/pharmacy office or two, a couple of restaurants/pubs.There's one fairly near my home that's neither in my price range nor really my cup of tea (I'd prefer to live WAY out in the country, far enough from neighbors to never see them unless it was intentional), like that. But if I was retired and did live in a place like that, I might well go "to town" once a month or so instead of several times a week.
  • Part of the plan involved a dedicated lane for the local government transit service's buses. While I'm against government-provided mass transit, if it's going to be there, why encourage people to not use it by making the road fat enough that they can drive the Hummer or Escalade into town instead without undue delays?
  • Developers expecting the gummint to just build more and fatter roads to make their developments more attractive to commuters is an externality. Instead of federal funding, why aren't the developers being hit up to cover the costs of wide roads built expressly for their customers' convenience?

 

One of the main arguments against my position, other than the "you're not being realistic" bit, is kind of particular to coastal areas: When there's a hurricane coming, the roads get full of cars trying to GTFO (residents fleeing) or GTFI (utility workers, emergency services, etc.). And Archer Road is a sort of main artery connecting much of the rural Gulf Coast to Interstate Highway 75. That does make sense.

I guess I may have come off as a little bit hippy dippy doo there, but I think I'm right -- even if not on anything else, on contesting the assumption that everything 27 years from now will look just like it looks now, only bigger and busier.

Wordle 821 Hint

Hint: "Hot dog!" said the congressman. "I don't have to pay for postage!"


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First Letter: F

Sunday, September 17, 2023

Wordle 820 Hint

Hint: Julie Andrews heard this sound circa 1965.


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First Letter: M

Saturday, September 16, 2023

(Some) Modern Christians vs. Christ

(Some) Modern Christians:

20230916_140009
 

Christ (according to Matthew 6:5-6):

And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward. But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly.

Wordle 819 Hint

 

Hint: Cherubim are just one kind of today's Wordle.


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First Letter: A

Friday, September 15, 2023

Wordle 818 Hint

Hint: You may find the process of solving today's Wordle strenuous.


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First Letter: E

Thursday, September 14, 2023

Dishonest Persuasion Technique: Lie, Then Admit You Lied, Hoping No One Will Notice You Lied

Far from the only example, but this one at The New Republic just kind of jumped out at me this morning.

The lie:

Many are unaware of the subminimum wage that allows a tipped employee to be paid as little as $2.13 per hour.

Then, in the very next paragraph, the admission of the lie:

[E]mployers are not required to pay minimum wages as long as customers make up the difference.

It's not that they're "allowed ... to be paid as little as $2.13 per hour." It's that they may be paid part of what they earn directly by the customer instead of with the employer as a middleman. The total must come to at least the legally mandated minimum wage. If tips don't get the employee there, the employer has to make up the difference.

I happen to have opinions on tipping, but I'm not going to go into them here. The point of the post is to point out how its opponents tell a blatant lie, then later on slip in an admission that they lied, hoping that readers are too stupid to make the connection.

Wordle 817 Hint

Hint: This "silk" is artificial, spun from plant fibers by humans rather than produced by caterpillars.


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First Letter: R

Wednesday, September 13, 2023

NFL Week 2 Picks

As posted at ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em site (straight picks, no spreads, etc., and I've created a group for those who would like to play along with me):

  • Philadelphia Eagles beat Minnesota Vikings
  • Green Bay Packers beat Atlanta Falcons
  • Buffalo Bills beat Las Vegas Raiders
  • Cincinnati Bengals beat Baltimore Ravens
  • Detroit Lions beat Seattle Seahawks
  • Tennessee Titans beat Los Angeles Chargers*
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Chicago Bears
  • Kansas City Chiefs beat Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Houston Texans beat Indianapolis Colts*
  • San Francisco 49ers beat Los Angeles Rams
  • New York Giants beat Arizona Cardinals
  • Dallas Cowboys beat New York Jets
  • Washington Commanders beat Denver Broncos*
  • Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots
  • New Orleans Saints beat Carolina Panthers
  • Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cleveland Browns*

Asterisks indicate "upset" picks -- that is, my pick disagreed with the majority of players as of the time I made it (I may swing back to see if there are any changes to that status).

It's a little early in the season to be drawing too many conclusions, of course, but I'm hoping to improve on my 10-6 Week 1 performance.


Wordle 816 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle embodies transparency.


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First Letter: C

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Two Free Email Subscriptions for Readers of eBooks

As I move away from Gmail and to Proton Mail (that is an affiliate link, and thanks to one of you for getting me nearly three months worth of my upgrade with your upgrade!), one process I'm going through is carefully looking at all of my email newsletter subscriptions and deciding which ones to move over and which ones to ditch. Two I'm keeping:

  • BookBub (that is a referral link, but I don't know what if anything I receive if you subscribe)
  • Bookperk (not an affiliate link)

They're both "free," they're both daily, and they both feature links to free or on sale ebooks at Amazon and elsewhere.

The most common price point seems to be $1.99, and I often find stuff I either didn't know I wanted (recent example: Salman Rushdie's Victory City), but knew I wanted and wasn't willing to pay an outrageous price for (recent example: Quentin Tarantino's Cinema Speculation).

I've complained enough on this blog about outrageous ebook prices; now you know where I find good deals.

NFL Week 1 Outcomes

My picks (posted here), with "Tom was right" picks in green and "Tom was wrong" picks in red:

  • Kansas City Chiefs beat Detroit Lions
  • Carolina Panthers beat Atlanta Falcons*
  • Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns
  • Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis Colts
  • Minnesota Vikings beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • New Orleans Saints beat Tennessee Titans
  • San Francisco 49ers beat Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Washington Commanders beat Arizona Cardinals
  • Baltimore Ravens beat Houston Texans
  • Green Bay Packers beat Chicago Bears*
  • Las Vegas Raiders beat Denver Broncos*
  • Philadelphia Eagles beat New England Patriots
  • Miami Dolphins beat Los Angeles Chargers*
  • Seattle Seahawks beat Los Angeles Rams
  • Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
  • Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets

So, 10-6 for Week 1. Not terrible, I guess. I predicted four upsets (that is, my picks disagreed with the majorities -- indicated by asterisks above) and three of them happened.

Since FiveThirtyEight seems to have dropped its annual NFL Forecasting Game, I'm doing my picks at ESPN's PigSkin Pick'Em. So far I'm in the 93rd percentile for accuracy there and ranked 57,493rd, although I don't see an easy way to figure out how many players there are altogether. I've set up a group that you can join if you'd like to see how your predictions stack up against mine (and those of other people who join the group).

Wordle 815 Hint

Hint: This kind of blender does have wires, but it's not electric.


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First Letter: W

Monday, September 11, 2023

If You're Charging a "Rehoming Fee" of Several Hundred Dollars Each for Your Puppies ...

... you're not charging a "rehoming fee," you're just selling your puppies.

Which is fine, but why pretend otherwise?

Yet Another Non-Existent Problem

According to a CBS News / YouGov poll, 77% of American voters think there should be "maximum age limits for elected officials."

But there already are "maximum age limits for elected officials."

They're called "elections."

Think someone's too old to hold office? Don't vote for him or her. "Problem" solved.

The framers of the US Constitution obviously didn't think age was a problem -- they set the minimum age to hold the presidency at only one year less than the average lifespan circa 1790.

Wordle 814 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle was from its back pages -- it's younger than that now.


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First Letter: O

Sunday, September 10, 2023

An Affiliate Link and Recommendation

From an email I received this morning:

Dear Proton community member,

Your privacy is better protected when your contacts use Proton too.

So we’re offering up to $90 in credits when you refer your friends to Proton Mail.

If you create a free Proton Mail account through my affiliate link, you get a free month of their "Mail Plus" paid upgrade.

If you decide to continue with that paid plan (or choose one of their other paid plans), I get some credit toward my paid plan.

I've mentioned/recommended Proton Mail before. One thing I may not have mentioned is that in addition to offering strong encryption, etc., they're located in Switzerland, which has very strong privacy laws. They're not going to hand your data over to the FBI just because they're asked to. The matter will go to court (a Swiss court, not a US court) first.

Power Lines at Sunrise

powerlines

Wordle 813 Hint

Hint: I'm saying this first. If you say it again with attribution, you're doing today's Wordle.


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First Letter: Q

Friday, September 08, 2023

An Explanation of How/Why the Lions Beat the Chiefs Last Night

They scored more points.

Yes, it's really that simple.

I always "bet on" the Chiefs to win, and I thought they probably would last night, but the outcome is not shocking or bizarre. They just got out-played.

After a terrible start last year, the Lions improved dramatically toward the end of the season, and they used their draft picks and other acquisition techniques wisely in between seasons.

When I was a kid, the inevitable Thanksgiving dinner after-joke was "so, who are we going to watch beat the Lions tonight?"

Not anymore. They've got a head coach (Dan Campbell) whose total focus is building a winning team and he's doing exactly that. He's also willing to take big risks, as with the fake punt early in the game from inside the Lions' own 20-yard line. Goff is a first-rate quarterback and the Lions have been busy acquiring players whose strengths match his own (and a great defensive line).

Yes, the Chiefs had Travis Kelce out with a knee injury and Chris Jones pouting from the stands because he's unhappy with contract negotiations. That did hurt them, but the Chiefs were up against a worthy opponent either way.

I was pleasantly surprised by the officiating. I recall a missed (in my view) pass interference call, but I don't remember which team was affected how. There was also a case where, last year, "roughing the quarterback" would have been called, and wasn't. In this case, the "victim" was Mahomes, and he was pissed that there was no flag on the play, but the contact was clearly unintentional and I think the decision not to call a foul was correct. Hopefully they're going to get a little less inclined to yell "roughing the passer" every time a drop of another player's sweat lands on his cleats.

My Favorite Daily Walking Route ...

... and not only because, while walking it, I occasionally run into an attractive lady who also seems to choose it for regular walks.



From my house to what's usually the far end of the route (a "t" intersection with a dirt/sand road -- I do occasionally turn left or right and make it into a long walk) is about 2,400 steps, so walking it knocks out nearly half my daily 11,000 step quota. 

There's no place on the basic route (as far as the "t") that's more than maybe 2,000 feet from a busy hard surface road, but after the first hundred feet or so the road noise becomes muffled/distant enough that it really feels like being waaaaayyyy out in the country. I've walked it maybe 100 times and have encountered a vehicle, IIRC, twice.

Wordle 811 Hint

Hint: Wake up, little Wordler, wake up.


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First Letter: R

Thursday, September 07, 2023

The Down Sides of Careless Fantasy Football Schedule Keeping ...

... can be serious indeed.

I'm glad the guy is okay. But personally, I've started buying wings from out when a situation calls for wings. Yes, they're expensive, but when I look at the price of the raw ones and think about the work involved, they don't seem that expensive. And you can often find a sale.

I personally prefer the "naked" wings from Hooters, but it's been years since I had them (I can't imagine what Tamara has against Hooters) and Publix sells a "naked" wing that's not a buffalo wing -- it has some kind of dry rub on it -- that I like too.

Note to self: See if Tamara will stop at Hooters and get naked wings before the game tonight.

NFL Week 1 Picks

It's that time of year! So far as I can tell, FiveThirtyEight isn't running their NFL Forecasting Game this year. In fact, they seem to have stopped covering sports entirely several months ago.

So, I've signed up with ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" (standard option, no spreads, etc.) for this season. I've also created a group for anyone who wants to match their picks with mine and see who does best.

My Week 1 Picks:

  • Kansas City Chiefs beat Detroit Lions
  • Carolina Panthers beat Atlanta Falcons*
  • Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns
  • Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis Colts
  • Minnesota Vikings beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • New Orleans Saints beat Tennessee Titans
  • San Francisco 49ers beat Pittsburgh Steelers
  • Washington Commanders beat Arizona Cardinals
  • Baltimore Ravens beat Houston Texans
  • Green Bay Packers beat Chicago Bears*
  • Las Vegas Raiders beat Denver Broncos*
  • Philadelphia Eagles beat New England Patriots
  • Miami Dolphins beat Los Angeles Chargers*
  • Seattle Seahawks beat Los Angeles Rams
  • Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
  • Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets
I suppose ESPN has a model, but I don't see picks for it on my Pick'em screen. What I do see is the percentage of people making picks who have picked each team to win. Asterisks above indicate where I disagree with the majority (said majority being the majority as of the time I made my picks). Any changes to my picks will be made prior to game time and mentioned in an update to this post.

The Chiefs-Lions kickoff is at 8:20pm Eastern tonight. I don't buy a lot of NFL merch because it's so pricy, but I did find a sub-$15 deal on a Chiefs light-up beanie, so I expect to top off my red shirt and red shorts with that when I sit down to watch tonight on Peacock.

Wordle 810 Hint

Hint: You could do today's Wordle in a house or on the past.


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First Letter: D

Wednesday, September 06, 2023

Wordle 809 Hint

Hint: In the biblical book of Matthew, the wicked do this with their teeth while wailing in the furnace of fire.


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First Letter: G

Monday, September 04, 2023

Wordle 807 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle is so exciting that I find it dizzying/disorienting.


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First Letter: G

Sunday, September 03, 2023

Sometimes a Break is Just the Thing

For whatever reason, by Garrison Center columns have felt kind of stale and perfunctory lately. I don't know if that's how they read to others, but I've just not been wildly satisfied with them.

Fortunately, this is a holiday weekend, so no Saturday column. And my fellow Garrison columnist, Joel Schlosberg, has one in the can for Tuesday.

Which means I get a whole week away from worrying about writing 400-500 word op-eds. I expect to get back into the swing on Thursday with some of the verve that's been missing.

Wordle 806 Hint

Hint: If you haven't gotten to today's Wordle yet, don't sweat it. The puzzle isn't going anywhere and anticipates your arrival.


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First Letter: A

Saturday, September 02, 2023

Wordle 805 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle may bring you to tears. It's a bulb, but not the kind that lights up a room.


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First Letter: O

Friday, September 01, 2023

A Thing I've Never Done That I'd Like Opinions On

I've still never tried Airbnb.

I've had friends and relatives tell me it's great (and I've visited some of them at the places they've rented and been favorably impressed).

But I've never pulled the trigger on it myself for several reasons (one of them is that Tamara has the ability to get very attractive hotel rates).

One of these days, I'd like to take a vacation. A real one. As in:

  • A full week (or more) rather than 3-4 days, and
  • Entirely for family time / recreation, rather than for funerals or political stuff or whatever.

That sounds like a better use case for Airbnb.

Most of the time when I travel, a hotel makes the most sense because it's just a place to crash in between a whirlwind of stuff I have to do. Might as well let someone else cook my breakfast, etc.

But with a full week and no schedule to keep, a nice little house with a nice little patio/firepit -- as well as a full kitchen and laundry facilities one need not hover over -- sounds like the better plan. Especially if we're talking a beach vacation. Hit the beach when we feel like it. Wander into town when the spirit moves. Otherwise, kick back to watch some sunsets and so forth, maybe with some steaks on the grill or whatever.

What's your experience with Airbnb or similar outfits been like? Have you received what you paid for, and was the price right? Any horror stories?

Wordle 804 Hint

Hint: As frontiers go, today's Wordle is final.


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First Letter: S

Thanks For Asking! -- 09/01/23

I'm actually drafting this post on August 28, because Hurricane Idalia is likely to pass over my house on August 29 or 30 and I don't know if I'll have power or Internet access on September 1, when it's scheduled to publish.

I am, however, optimistic that I will survive and eventually make it back to answer anything -- yes, anything -- you care to ask in the comment thread below this post. So ask away.



Thursday, August 31, 2023

Wordle 803 Hint

Hint: At a wedding, she does.


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First Letter: B

Wednesday, August 30, 2023

The Best Kind of Letdown

Well, the lights flickered a couple of times. But that was the worst of Hurricane Idalia for my neck of the woods.

I was up at oh dark thirty, about the time the winds really became noticeable, figuring I'd get as much work as possible done before we lost power. I finally went and took a nap around noon.

The storm track seems to have "wobbled" just a hair more north-northeast  than northeast. I know (from watching live video) that Cedar Key, 50 miles west of me, got hellacious storm surge, but around here all I saw were some very small tree branches blown down.

I declare myself duly grateful to any notional intelligent power or powers behind the workings of nature.

Wordle 802 Hint

Hint: Video's great, but it's better when accompanied by this.


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First Letter: A

Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Looks Like We're In For A Dark and Stormy Night

Catch y'all on the other side ASAP.



Wordle 801 Hint

Hint: You might find this included as an ingredient in an Italian-style salad, or see it used to describe a film like The Italian Job.


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First Letter: C

Monday, August 28, 2023

I Don't Enjoy Hurricane Prep Very Much

But I guess it's better than getting e.g. a wheelbarrow through the front window.

Got some cases of bottled water and a few other "might need" food items arriving via Instacart shortly, and Tamara and I will go out tonight for some rope/bungee cords/tarps, etc. I've got convenient containers of water freezing in the freezer, for use in coolers if (let's be honest, when) the power goes out.

Tomorrow morning I'll be covering, tying down, tarping, etc. anything in the yard that seems like it could plausibly be lifted and sent flying by high winds.

As of the last I saw, the most likely future is:

  • The storm makes landfall as a Category 3 hurricane about 50 miles west of me on Wednesday morning; then
  • Rapidly loses energy, passing over me as a Category 1.

But I wouldn't count on the latter. For all I know, it may pick up enough energy from the warm Gulf water to land as a Cat 4 and still be a Cat 4 or 3 when it hits me. Or it could take a left turn and head right at Pensacola or even New Orleans. We'll be making decisions tonight as to whether to evacuate, and if so to where, or whether to ride it out here at home. Since we have animals, bugging out is a real pain in the ass. Our daughter and her boyfriend usually go to a friend's house, which is supposedly as close to stormproof as humanly possible, when we have incoming. Our church is usually open as a shelter, but it's usually also not on the expected direct path, and most of the people who shelter there are usually from out of town.

Speaking of which, I hear that our pastor got a lovely birthday present -- a getaway weekend in Cedar Key. This weekend. Cedar Key is pretty much dead center of the likely landing spot, so she'll be rescheduling. There probably won't be much working in that town for a month or so if it goes where they say it's going at the strength they say it's going to arrive at.

To me, one of the worst parts of hurricanes is that usually I'm without electricity for several days ... but the outage somehow never seems to affect my next power bill by anything like the percentage of the month it comprises.

OK, I'm gonna go see if I can find a little cheese to go with this whine.

Not Really a Reason For Me, But YMMV

I'm a huge Linux fan, and have been for 20 years. Any time a friend or loved one complains about their Windows machine, I tell them to switch to f*cking Linux, even if it's just ChromeOS (yes, that runs on a Linux kernel).

But this explainer on why Linux is cooler than your OS doesn't really do much for me: If your Linux box freezes, you can go to another computer, remote into your Linux desktop with Secure Shell, and kill whatever process is causing the problem.

I do command line stuff when it's needed, but that seems like an unnccessarily difficult way of handling the situation when just force re-booting (even with this guy's described hardware difficulties) gets the job done.

And I can't remember the last time I had to force reboot. I'm sure it wasn't THAT long ago, probably when I was doing battle with a bad installation, but it's extremely infrequent.

Unlike some Linux bros, I prefer the GUI to the command line, and I've enjoyed watching Linux get as good as, then better than, Windows and MacOS on that front.

And yes, I know that some of you are enslaved to proprietary software that's made for Windows or MacOS, that either won't run in a virtual machine in Linux or that you don't want to mess with running on a virtual machine in Linux. But if you don't resemble that remark, not switching to Linux is just being unnecessarily hard on yourself.

News About a Mentor Who Didn't Know He Was One

Dan Sanchez is ill, in about the worst way one can imagine. I don't know him personally, and don't recall ever corresponding directly with him, but I've admired his writing (at Antiwar.com, the Foundation for Economic Education, etc.) for many years. He's among those I consider my unknowing mentors in that skill.

He's got a really good attitude about it all, and he and his family will surely appreciate such support as you are willing and able to send.

Wordle 800 Hint

Hint: Some people do this with words, others with musical notes.


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First Letter: W

Sunday, August 27, 2023

And Yet Another COVID Update

OK, this morning, I still feel weak, but I don't feel tired. I don't know if that's due to spending something like 36 hours out of 48 in bed, or if the Vitamin D is finally kicking in, or what.

What I do know is that previously, each day I've felt better I've decided to go back to walking 11,000 steps in a day. After which I felt worse the next day. So I'm going to take it easy for at least another day or two.

I may get a weekend column out after all, unless the brain fog descends again.

File under "if it weren't for bad luck ...": Now that I finally seem to be getting over the COVID, there's apparently an incoming hurricane. Oh, joy.

Another Good Piece on Oliver Anthony ...

... and not just because it mentions my piece on Oliver Anthony -- from David Yearsley in CounterPunch. Money line:

Anthony claims that he’s just “an idiot with a guitar.” He’s not. His music unleashes that most dangerous of all forces: authenticity.

It does bring up something I've been wanting to mention, and to mention in the same vein as that quote above:

This week the English singer-songwriter and activist Billy Bragg generously provided his own song in answer to the anger of Anthony’s “Rich Men.” Bragg took Anthony to task for directing his resentment at unfortunate folks rather than the billionaires of his song’s title.

I just don't see how Billy Bragg gets to lecture Oliver Anthony on "working class" values.

Billy Bragg sings about the working class, but his main connection to it seems to be that he did some odd jobs while trying to make it as a musician.

Oliver Anthony is the working class -- and "the unfortunate folk" Bragg speaks of. He got his skull fractured while working in a factory. Hard to get more authentically "working class" or "unfortunate" than that.

Far from "resenting" the "unfortunate folks," Anthony seems to regard them as victims of domination/manipulation by those "rich men north of Richmond." He's really on the same "class struggle" page as Bragg. But he recognizes a tragic agency on the part of those people, his people, instead of just using them as props.

Wordle 799 Hint

Hint: Some people like theirs with quiet.


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First Letter: P

Saturday, August 26, 2023

Wordle 798 Hint

Hint: The Mormon Tabernacle has a famous one.


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First Letter: C

Friday, August 25, 2023

Still Not Liking the whole COVID-19 Thing

I haven't tested again, because there's not really any need to. It's not like I go out a lot or anything.

Tamara didn't test positive until several days after me, and as of this morning was still testing positive (she has to work from home until she has a negative test).

Nine days after testing positive, every time I think I've "turned the corner" I start feeling like hell again. One day I'll make my goal of 11,000 steps, the next I feel like I got run over by a truck by the time I've walked maybe 3,000.

Today, I decided to see if I can rest my way through this thing. Spent pretty much all day in bed, and am planning to head back that way shortly. And if I still feel completely worn out in the morning, I'll probably do a bunch of napping tomorrow  as well.


Update, Saturday evening:  I'm now about 36 hours into a "do the absolute minimum I need to do, go back to bed" thing. I doubt I've rested this much in 30 years. Still feeling tired and hazy, though. And tomorrow I really have to get back to regular work.

New HTTP Status Code Proposal

For addition to the HTTP standard:

215 -- As reported by Donald J. Trump, treat with extreme skepticism

In booking information, he "pre-reported" his height as 6'3" (one inch taller than when he was booked in Manhattan in April) and weight 215 pounds (25 pounds lighter than in April).

I'm four inches shorter than he claims to be, and when I weighed a few days ago I came in at 225 (one of the negative consequences of quitting smoking). He's visibly fatter than me by quite a bit.

There's no weigh in hell that tub of lard ways 215 pounds. 255, maybe.

But then, we knew he'd lie, didn't we? Because that's what he does.

I wonder if that "self-reporting" form is attested to under penalty of perjury?

Wordle 797 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle is very large and full of water.


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First Letter: O

Thursday, August 24, 2023

Wordle 796 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle is both verbose and, for lack of a couple of Ls, not of this world.


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First Letter: W

Wednesday, August 23, 2023

For Your Convenience: First 2024 GOP Presidential Nomination Debate

If the embed below works correctly, you should be able to watch Rumble's livestream of the first GOP debate right here (live coverage begins at 7:30pm EDT) ... 

 

If I bother to stay up for it, I will live-blog either in the form of updates to this post or comments below it.

Unless There's a Last-Minute Change, I was Wrong

And when I'm wrong, I like to admit it ASAP instead of being like some people who continually explain why they weren't REALLY wrong, just misunderstood.

On August 13, I predicted that Donald Trump would participate in the first GOP presidential primary debate (while explaining why he shouldn't do so).

As of this moment (the morning of debate day), Trump says he won't be there.

I suppose he could be lying and planning to show up and surprise everyone. You just never know what that guy's gonna do. But I'm provisionally admitting error.

Trump not showing up is probably bad for Ron DeSantis. I bet this piece from this morning's Daily Beast is in front of the other participants' debate prep teams even as we speak.

And I really do wish that Kevin D. Williamson was going to be the moderator.

So, should I bother to watch this thing? Live-blog it? I'm disinclined to do either, but might be persuaded.

Wordle 795 Hint

Hint: If you've got the nerve to not swerve, solving today's Wordle is just a matter of energy and enthusiasm.


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First Letter: V

Tuesday, August 22, 2023

Over the COVID?

I don't think I'm quite over it. I still feel fairly bedraggled. But today should be my second day in a row of getting back to walking 11,000+ steps, it's been several days since I spiked a fever, the congestion seems to be clearing up, etc.

I've had worse experiences with e.g. influenza. Thankfully, my senses of taste and smell seem unaffected. For some reason, those are the reported symptoms I find most frightening.

Doing It Anyway, Might as Well Get the Asterisk

As of this morning's puzzle, I've made the switch to playing Wordle in "hard mode" as opposed to "regular mode."

What's the difference? In "hard mode," if you guess a letter and its position correctly, you must use that letter, in that position, in subsequent guesses.

So, say that your first guess is "TORSE" (that's my everyday starter word), and you find that "E" is indeed the correct letter for the final position (it's shown in green).

After that, every guess must end with "E." You can't go with "PLAID" or "CLANK."

Why am I changing to "hard mode?" Because really, that's how I generally play anyway.

Some people like to throw out guesses not including letters they've already discovered, for the sake of maximizing their NEW letter discoveries.

But I think I've only done that once or twice across nearly 800 daily puzzles.

And if you do it the "hard" way, you get a little asterisk next to your winning result (for example, today, instead of "Wordle 794 4/6," I got "Wordle 794 4/6*). Yay, prize!

Wordle 794 Hint

Hint: Scary and Posh are both this kind of girl.


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First Letter: S

Monday, August 21, 2023

Wordle 793 Hint

Hint: Five historically memorable ones are Utah, Omaha, Gold, Juno, and Sword.


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First Letter: B

Sunday, August 20, 2023

Wordle 792 Hint

Hint: This tribe, which it turned out could indeed kick it, was discovered living in Queens in the 1980s.


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First Letter: Q