Wordle 1220 Hint

Hint: With one you can eat soup. Find two and you've got yourself a musical instrument. 

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1219 Hint

Hint: As propositions go, today's Wordle is risky and unpredictable.

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First Letter: D

I Guess I Kind of Phoned It In ... Maybe?

Today's Garrison Center column pretty much just summarizes the things I've been telling y'all here at the blog about who I think will win the presidential election and why.

One reason for that is described in the column itself: Presidential elections suck all the air out of the news cycle room and leave me not with writer's block so much as writer's burnout. It just doesn't feel like anyone's going to want to read about anything else.

A second reason is that having finally given in to the temptation to go pure nuts and bolts election predictor, I really can't do that again in this cycle. I pulled that trigger, and now that chamber is empty, which means I'll have to do the harder work of finding other stuff to address. It's like intentionally running the motorcycle out of gas so that I'll have to do more walking as I keep saying I'd like to do.

A third reason is that Thursday's column ran late (into Friday), and I really wanted to get "caught up" as soon as I woke up this morning, instead of pushing today's column to Sunday and spending all next week feeling "behind."

And a fourth reason, which only occurred to me about the time I hit "publish," is that hey, most readers of Garrison Center material are not readers of this blog ... so it's new to them, and they may find it interesting.

Anyway, I hope that column works for everyone.

Wordle 1218 Hint

Hint: Think "optic" or "dietary."

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First Letter: F

My First Sub-50-Degree Ride on the Italica Bulldog 150

It was fairly short -- a mile and a half each way from my home to the nearest lab for a blood draw (I have a regular doctor appointment next week). Unfortunately, they had no orders for lab work in their system, so I have an inquiry in to the doctor and will presumably have to make that little run again.

The bike doesn't seem to especially dislike lower temperatures, although I did give the engine a couple of minutes to warm up after a slightly rough/coughing start.

The Fonzie jacket did its job quite well. When it gets actually cold I'll probably wear a long-sleeve shirt instead of a t-shirt under it, and a neck gaiter, less for having a warmer neck and more to reduce the flow of cold air into my helmet through the bottom.

Further down, I did wish, a little, that I'd layered instead of just wearing jeans. But it wasn't terrible or anything. If I'm riding in the 30s or 20s I'll probably just wear the ol' union suit for top and bottom insulation.

I have a $5 pair of "handlebar gloves" (they mount on the motorcycle itself) coming from Temu for cold-weather riding, but I will probably get some warmer regular gloves too.

Wordle 1217 Hint

Hint: The action component of being frugal or ungenerous. Also, a variety of sandpiper.

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First Letter: S

And Here We Go With the Damn Writer's Block Again

It's not a general writer's block. It's a politics-specific writer's block.

Absent some kind of completely unpredictable, non-campaign-generated "October Surprise," the 2024 election cycle is effectively over.

More than 7 million Americans have already voted.

The major party candidates are in "try to get my own voters out and don't fuck up in public" mode, not "try to change minds" mode. Even Harris's interview with "unfriendly" Fox News was just an exercise in "keep looking nominally sane and not too cowardly" to maybe move a handful of votes from "I'm pretending to be undecided but kinda favor Harris" to "OK, I'm actually filling out my ballot for Harris now."

And yet, that mess is pretty much all America's going to be talked about for another couple of weeks.

I'm not going to skip a Garrison Center column (that's for when I'm sick or there's a hurricane or whatever), but it may be late tonight or early tomorrow before something really clicks for me.

NFL Week 7 Picks

NFL Week 7 starts Thursday night with the Broncos going up against the Saints. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Denver Broncos beat New Orleans Saints*
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat New England Patriots
• Atlanta Falcons beat Seattle Seahawks
• Buffalo Bills beat Tennessee Titans
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns
• Green Bay Packers beat Houston Texans*
• Miami Dolphins beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Minnesota Vikings beat  Detroit Lions*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat New York Giants
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Washington Commanders beat Carolina Panthers
• Kansas City Chiefs beat San Francisco 49ers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat New York Jets
• Baltimore Ravens beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Arizona Cardinals

Wordle 1216 Hint

Hint: Trouble with today's Wordle? Try splitting it into two equal parts.

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First Letter: H

Wordle 1215 Hint

Hint: Consider today's Wordle hint a gift, not a loan.

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First Letter: G

Election 2024: OK, Here's Something That Could Affect the Outcome

For each presidential election since 2012, I have:

1. Issued a state-by-state prediction of outcomes; and
2. Stood by that prediction instead of changing it at the last minute.

I usually try to do that fairly early (this year I did it on September 21).

And, without exception in the three elections I've predicted for, I've been correct as to the overall winner and as to the winner in (exactly, all three times) 48 of 50 states.

My prediction this year, in aggregate, is 319 electoral votes for Kamala Harris, 219 electoral votes for Donald Trump.

Will this be the year I fail to correctly predict the outcome in 47 or fewer states and/or the overall winner?

Well, it's possible. And here's a new data point that might contribute to that.

Presidential elections that are even a little bit close always boil down to turnout -- the candidate/campaign that's better at getting its voters to the polls wins.

And until recently, Trump's campaign was sucking at that, having handed off its Get Out The Vote operation to an amateurish outfit with little experience.

But now Elon Musk's America PAC is spending big money ($87 million as of October 9) on good old-fashioned (although very tech-assisted) door-knocking/direct mail GOTV work in swing states.

And they seem to be doing it right. Canvassers, the Post reports, "were told to focus their remaining time on getting confirmed Trump supporters to vote early, instead of spending precious time trying to change the minds of undecided or Harris voters."

I said before that Harris is in the driver's seat and that there's nothing Trump himself can do to change that -- unless she publicly shits the bed, she's got the edge on "number of supporters." Every time he runs his yap, he loses a few more, and that's going to remain true.

But if Musk can get Trump's vote out better than the Democrats can get Harris's vote out, it could still go the other way.

NFL Week 6 Results

My Week 6 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat  Chicago Bears*
• Green Bay Packers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans
• Houston Texans beat New England Patriots
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Cleveland Browns
• Washington Commanders beat Baltimore Ravens*
• Denver Broncos beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Detroit Lions beat Dallas Cowboys
• Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers
• New York Giants beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• New York Jets beat Buffalo Bills*

Nine right, five wrong. For the season, I am 58 right, 34 wrong and rank in the 92nd percentile among players of ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

Wordle 1214 Hint

 Hint: A tool for removing a sample from, or the center of, something.

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First Letter: C

So Yeah, The Blogging is A Little Bit Slower at the Moment

But I'm well on track to make my 650 posts for the year, and I expect I'll get back on it shortly.

What's going on? Well, the usual pre-election malaise. As mentioned in a response in this month's AMA thread (which inspired this riff on the subject), I find the height of election season annoying/dissatisfying. 

It feels like these civic rituals suck all the interesting air out of the communal room. In October of even-numbered years, writing starts to feel like ... work ... in a negative way. By this point in an election year, I usually feel like I've said all I have to say about the election and I usually feel like nobody wants to talk about anything else.

Today, I met reader GregL for a soft drink and some conversation. We talked quite a bit about the election, but that's fine, it's not exhausting in the way writing about the election is. And it may help with the writing -- he asked me a couple of questions that might become column topics and/or blog posts because they're not the kind of questions you get from reading the punditry.

Rolling out to meet GregL was a nice excuse to do my favorite thing (lately), which is climb on the motorcycle and put a few miles on it. Getting up toward 700 miles on the Italica Bulldog 150, and I'm starting to become fairly confident (hopefully not over-confident). Nice ride there. Not so much home (I hit evening rush hour traffic and didn't get to stretch the thing out to its 55-57 mph top speed until I was near home).

Nice day overall, and when I got home I caught up with work not much later than I usually do anyway. But of course I've got a column to write tomorrow. If anyone has any topic suggestions that 1) are in the news cycle, 2) not about the elections for office (referendums might do), and 3) of likely interest to the mainstream newspaper reading public, put them in comments!

Wordle 1213 Hint

Hint: The whole scale, as in:

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First Letter: G

Wordle 1212 Hint

Hint: Solving today's Wordle is all about position -- you're gonna have to get low.

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First Letter: P

Wordle 1211 Hint

Hint: To pull an answer out of today's Wordle, try dish soap mixed with hydrogen peroxide and baking soda.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1210 Hint

Hint: Windy, with sudden intermittent escalations.

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First Letter: G

I'm Told That We Did Have a Pretty Good Blow Last Night ...

... and that the lights flickered but never went full off. I guess I slept through it. When I fell out, there were gusts of maybe 20 mph or so. Woke up early this morning, got RRND out, waited for more storm, but nothing showed. No damage around the house that I've noticed.

Good.

I've been through enough hurricanes now that I'd have to think pretty hard to remember them all, and only one (Irma) has really been especially bad here at the house, for which I'm grateful.

I'd rather be all prepped up and have a storm not really show than the other way around.

You Had One Job, Netflix

I was happy to pay for Netflix. I wasn't always happy with what was or wasn't available, but it was a reasonably good deal. Been with them for more than 20 years, since back in the DVD by mail era.

Then, a few weeks ago, I got what sounded like good news: I was being automatically switched to an ad-supported plan, at a lower price! I don't mind ads.

Except: Now half the stuff I decide I want to watch isn't available unless I switch to a non-ad-supported plan at a price quite a bit higher than what I was paying before the ad-supported thing came out.

And: After producing what I personally found to be their most interesting series in a long time (KAOS), they've announced they're canceling it after one season.

My household probably spends more money than it should on streaming (although not nearly as much as we used to pay for cable), and Netflix used to be on the very bottom of my "if I decide to cancel a service it will be this one" list.

Now it's at or near the top.

Wordle 1209 Hint

Hint: It's how you turn wood into a statue or a turkey into Thanksgiving dinner servings.

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First Letter: C

NFL Week 6 Picks

Note: I've made my picks and am writing this post on Tuesday afternoon, for later posting. The appearance of this post will not necessarily mean that I've weathered Hurricane Milton and have power and Internet again.

NFL Week 6 starts Thursday night with the 49ers versus the Seahawks. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat  Chicago Bears*
• Green Bay Packers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans
• Houston Texans beat New England Patriots
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Cleveland Browns
• Washington Commanders beat Baltimore Ravens*
• Denver Broncos beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Detroit Lions beat Dallas Cowboys
• Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers
• New York Giants beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• New York Jets beat Buffalo Bills*

This will make two weeks without a Chiefs game for me -- Monday Night Football was on ESPN, to which I do not subscribe, and they've got a bye this week. So if there has to be a hurricane knocking out my ability to watch football, I guess this is the best week for it.

It's hard to be unhappy with the Chiefs' performance so far this season. They're 5-0 and one of two undefeated teams in the NFL this season (the other is the Minnesota Vikings). And some new guys are definitely stepping things up to keep getting wins despite the absence of several key veterans due to injuries.

Wordle 1208 Hint

Hint: Heather may have two, but Christina's was dearest.

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First Letter: M

Final Prep

On one hand, I just have a gut feeling that Milton is going to be worse than Helene.

On the other hand, usually when I get such feelings, the ensuing storm turns out to be (at least in my locale) a nothingburger.

But anyway, I decided to take an extra "may have several days without Internet and electricity" step. In addition to making sure all of my electronic devices are fully charged, I also made sure I had the Kindle reader app installed on all of them (except for, you know, the Kindle), and that I had several books (the Delphi version of the complete works of Nietzsche, Dante's Divine Comedy, and a couple of easier-reading novels) actually downloaded to said devices. If I'm just going to be lounging around awaiting power/Internet, I might as well improve my mind some.

This week's NFL picks are made, and scheduled for posting tomorrow whether I'm online or not.

The motorcycle "garage" has been folded up and stored, and the motorcycle will go into a real (neighbor's) garage later this evening. 

Tomorrow's edition of RRND is as ready as it's possible to be more than 12 hours ahead of publication, with a notice at the site that it may be "web-only" for the next few days.

A few more household items (filling bathtubs with water to flush toilets with, etc.) to deal with, but I'm essentially as ready as it's possible to be.

See y'all on the flip side. Be safe.

NFL Week 5 Results

My Week 5 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Minnesota Vikings beat New York Jets
• Chicago Bears beat Carolina Panthers
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots*
• Washington Commanders beat Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Houston Texans beat Buffalo Bills*
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Denver Broncos
• San Francisco 49ers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Green Bay Packers beat Los Angeles Rams
• Seattle Seahawks beat New York Giants
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Dallas Cowboys*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat New Orleans Saints

Ten right, four wrong. For the season, I am 49 right, 29 wrong and rank in the 98.8th percentile among players of ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

With a hurricane coming in tonight or tomorrow, I may or may not get my Week 6 picks up before Thursday Night Football kicks off, but I will have verifiably made those picks at the ESPN site (that's on my agenda for today).

Wordle 1207 Hint

Hint: Smoke it if you got it.

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First Letter: J

Well, That Escalated Quickly

Milton went from a Category 1 to a Category 5 in a day.

The most likely storm track still has it passing well south of my house, with "tropical storm" rather than "hurricane" winds likely. But it still looks like it might be a worse time than Helene, even if it doesn't take a slight turn.

Fortunately, a lot of the storm prep I did for Helene hasn't been undone (tying things down, etc.), and I'm already making sure charging power banks are full, etc. Tomorrow I'll do the "fill bathtub, make sure containers are full of water" routine.

Anyway, my best guess is the power/Internet will go out here on Tuesday evening or early Wednesday, hopefully back by Monday.

One Reason I Would Never Vote for Kamala Harris

There are lots of reasons, of course.

But watching Classified: The War on Backpage.com on CiVL today (those are not affiliate links, and registration is required, but it's free) really drove home to me that Harris is basically a more empowered Michelle Carter. She was part of a campaign to hound an innocent man until he killed himself.

Unlike Carter, who used persuasion, Harris used the resources of government to do achieve her ends. 

Unlike Carter, therefore, she belongs in prison (if anyone does, that is -- I'd personally be happier with a large enough civil judgment that she was reduced to, say, sacking groceries for income and living in a weekly-rent motel for the rest of her life).

One place she definitely doesn't belong is the White House (yes, I know, nobody belongs there, but her even less than most).

Wordle 1206 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle is a grind -- try some yeast to get a rise out of it.

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First Letter: F

It's Starting to Look Like a Tom Cruise Autumn

Initially, Hurricane Helene looked like it was coming right at us ("us" meaning my family -- we live a few miles west of Gainesville, Florida). It ended up shifting just enough west that we didn't take the brunt of the storm, and my household in particular was, other than lacking electricity and Internet for 36 hours and cell service for a somewhat shorter period, was mostly untouched.

Now here comes Hurricane Milton. The current storm track has it passing just enough south of us that, once again, we'll be on the edge and maybe not take the worst hit. In fact, last time I noticed, my county (Alachua), isn't even included in the governor's "state of emergency" declaration.

But even the slightest northward shift from the storm's projected path could change that. So, starting late Tuesday or early Wednesday, you may not hear from me for a few days.

In more cheerful news, a motorcycle update:

I rode the Italica Bulldog 150 out to High Springs and back yesterday, having coffee and conversation with reader GregL and a new libertarian friend, LeonA, at the midpoint. It was a great time.

I had tentatively planned on then riding further out, to GregL's place, perhaps for some backgammon and whatnot, but the weather had me worried. I was definitely not going to spend the night, as higher winds are in the forecast for today and I still find wind problematic on a two-wheel vehicle. I came back home mid-to-late afternoon. Ran into a little rain (not a problem) and a little wind (not a problem), and only had one close call. At a particular intersection where there had obviously been heavy rain not long before, a little bit of standing water made me cautious, and rightly so -- during the turn, I got a little rear tire skid, but managed to keep the bike upright.

I also got to travel a little bit of semi-local territory I'd never been over before (I came back by an alternate route that took me over the road between High Springs and Alachua, then skirted Alachua using county roads before hitting the road back into Gainesville, which I had been over before on the 50cc scooter).

As for performance, I have to say that the Brando/Fonzie jacket was a great purchase. As long as the bike was moving with it partially unzipped, I was reasonably cool. I just needed to get it off if I was stopping for more than a minute or three and dismounting. When I got home, the only parts of me that weren't wet were the parts covered by the jacket and by my helmet.

According to Microsoft CoPilot's AI chatbot, the most fuel-efficient RPM rate for a GY6 150cc engine is between 5,000 and 6,000. Based on my experience, I believe that. Between home and High Springs, I ran the bike at, mostly, 50-55 miles per hour, which meant 7-8k RPM. When I got there, I fueled up, and Fuelly tells me that the mileage for the 42 miles between the previous fuel-up and that one was only 59.19 miles per gallon. Almost all of the miles between fuel-ups were "highway"/higher-speed miles rather than town cruising. Other mileages have been in the 65-70 mpg range.

If I seem obsessed with gas mileage, I'm really not. I'll be happy with 50 miles per gallon once I get the bike to be able to reach a top speed of 65-70 miles per hour and cruise comfortably at 55. And I expect that I will have to use more gas to make that happen. The performance air filter has arrived, and I'm considering my options on the exhaust side. A good performance exhaust is kind of expensive, and it's possible that I can just modify the current exhaust for better performance. Once those modifications get done, I'll be able to tell whether the stock carburetor is sufficient, or whether I need to up-jet or replace it to get the power I want out of the bike.

Why do I want more power out of the bike? Because I want its engine to be in its happiest place at that 55-60 "country highway" speed. A happier engine lasts longer. I'd rather spend some money here and there on mods, and slightly more on gas, than have to replace the engine at 10,000 miles (in fact, I doubt I'll replace the engine, ever, unless I just decide I like the frame so much that it's worth doing a complete rebuild with a 250cc manual-shift motorcycle engine to keep that frame; I don't expect that to be my conclusion).

Anyway, a happy ride and an enjoyable time at the ride's mid-point. I was, however, quite sore this morning. The ride back was pretty bumpy compared to the ride out; some of those county roads aren't nearly as well-maintained as the state roads I used to get to High Springs via Archer. I assume Chesty Puller was correct, though: Pain (this kind of pain, anyway) is weakness leaving the body.

Wordle 1205 Hint

Hint: Beer, or cold storage for same.

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First Letter: L

Wordle 1204 Hint

Hint: Neil Young and Cecil Rhodes took very different approaches to this occupation.

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First Letter: M

Brando/Fonzie Jacked Update/Mini-Review

The leather jacket arrived yesterday, and I immediately gave it a motorcycle tryout. Just a short ride, a couple of miles, but I'm pretty pleased with it.

Its Amazon description advertises: "With a water-resistant exterior and micro-mesh thermal lining, stay cool when it’s hot and cozy when it’s not."

That might be a bit of an exaggeration, but not completely false.

The temperature outside was about 90 degrees fahrenheit when I put the jacket on. with the zipper maybe 1/3 of the way down, I remained reasonably cool while in motion on the motorcycle. When not in motion for more than a minute or two, or with the thing zipped up fully, I pretty much roasted. It's at least tolerable while riding in hot weather, and I expect it will do a great job of keeping me warmer in cold weather as well.

The jacket's materials and construction seemed quite good for the price. The stitches look and feel solid. The leather didn't have any obvious blemishes and felt like it was of fairly nice quality. Not that I'm an expert on that kind of thing, but it just feels pretty darn solid as a clothing item.

The elbow, shoulder, and back armor weren't annoying. I could tell they were there, but they didn't interfere with my motion and they weren't uncomfortable. As to their quality, well, I didn't crash the bike to find out about that.

BONUS: Multiple inside pockets, including one with a little picture of a phone on it and a velcro closure. So now I can quit messing around trying to find a phone holder that will fit both the bike and the phone. I think the pocket may even be large enough to fit a little power bank in with the phone. Or I guess I could get a longer USB cable to run in through the jacket. That's only really a big deal on long trips anyway. Unless I need navigation assistance, the phone won't be draining its battery much while I'm riding.

Having the jacket makes me want to get that cap Marlon Brando wears in The Wild One. Not for riding -- I'm all about helmets -- but for a proper answering appearance when people ask me what I'm rebelling against.

Who Won The Port Strike?

In my opinion, everyone except Donald Trump.

The dock workers picked, politically, a great time to go on strike. They could reasonably expect that Joe Biden wouldn't further damage what the Democratic Party has left of the organized labor vote by invoking the Labor Management Relations Act of 1947, aka Taft-Hartley, and order them back to work -- and that he'd sense the opportunity to get back some of that organized labor vote by refusing to.

The port operators were going to have to reckon with contract difficulties and either make concessions or see a strike sooner or later. Better to get at least temporarily through that in a way that gave Biden a boost before the election, because they knew Trump's whackjob tariff/trade proposals would tank their business. Not that Biden's been any better than Trump 1.0 was on the subject, but Trump 2.0 sounds a lot worse.

I'm not saying the short strike / quick resolution was a pre-planned conspiracy, but I do suspect both sides had quick communications from Biden's people pointing out that the more quickly the thing was resolved, and with the least amount of overt government intervention,  the less likely a terrible November outcome for both sides.

A drawn-out strike would have given the Trumpists a month to thunder about how terrible it is that we rely so much on imports, etc., and the GOP's more actively anti-union wing a pretext to whine about how we need a "strong" president who would just conscript those mean ol' workers and force them back on the job (Trump plays "pro-labor" from a protectionist angle, but the larger party not as much).

To the extent the strike gets continuing media play, I expect Democrats to emphasize that the short-term economic panic was just a little preview -- a tiny taste -- of what four more years of Trump would look like, if he got what he says he wants.

Wordle 1203 Hint

Hint: Two examples -- "His Royal Highness The Duke of Sussex, Earl of Dumbarton," and For Whom The Bell Tolls.

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First Letter: T

Wordle 1202 Hint

Hint: Got a dream? Got a song? Paint today's Wordle and come along!

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First Letter: W

Three Conditions, One Decision

Condition #1: Bitcoin is down, and when I spend a little, it almost always goes up immediately afterward.

Condition #2: I've gone over sideways on a motorcycle twice now. Both times I've suffered mild abrasions to my left elbow. The first time, I also ripped my favorite jeans at the left knee and got an abrasion there too. The second time I was wearing some cloth "compression" knee braces, which provide some extra padding, under track suit pants. The pants didn't tear, nor did the brace wear through. The knee was mildly painful but it didn't come in contact with the road surface.

Condition #3:

Decision: Time to quit muddling through the usually mild Florida winters with whatever jacket/coat I happen to have lying around or notice at a thrift store and buy a 1) leather 2) jacket with 3) motorcycle armor (not an affiliate link).

Which I just did.

I considered more modern "MotoGP guy on the way to the track" styles made with supposedly abrasion-resistant nylons, etc., but I suspect leather remains king on the abrasion resistance count even minus the removable elbow/shoulder/back armor, and the Johnny Strabler/Arthur Fonzarelli style is more my kind of thing even when I'm not on the bike.

So now that I've spent 50 USD of Bitcoin, I expect the price to go up by, say, 25% over the next week.

And I'll have a new jacket tomorrow. Which will be nice for a fairly long ride I hope to take this weekend.

NFL Week 5 Picks

NFL Week 5 starts tomorrow night with the Buccaneers taking on the Falcons. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Minnesota Vikings beat New York Jets
• Chicago Bears beat Carolina Panthers
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots*
• Washington Commanders beat Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Houston Texans beat Buffalo Bills*
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Denver Broncos
• San Francisco 49ers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Green Bay Packers beat Los Angeles Rams
• Seattle Seahawks beat New York Giants
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Dallas Cowboys*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat New Orleans Saints

Wordle 1201 Hint

Hint: There's a ghost in today's Wordle! Or maybe it's a mussel.

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First Letter: S

Caryn Ann Harlos Makes One Of My Old Pieces FAR More Interesting

This is the piece in question.

Here's what Caryn Ann did with it:

If you're interested in both the current and historical matters in the libertarian movement and the Libertarian Party, I think you'll find it quite informative. And Caryn Ann's podcasts are always interesting, and I'm flattered that she was able to do something useful with my old essay that added a crap ton of value to it.

Some side notes:

• I'm getting this one in ASAP, because it's important. If you like what Caryn Ann's doing, support her via Patreon. Her recent break with the Mises PAC / LNC over their shilling for the Trump campaign has apparently cost her dearly in that respect. And of course mash that subscribe button on her YouTube channel. Self-aggrandizing self-reference: I was her very first podcast financial patron; I think that was before Patreon even existed, but I'm not sure, and it was before this particular podcast title/format. I'm supporting her work again now.
• I sometimes get weird looks from people when I tell them I consider Caryn Ann a great friend and love her dearly. Have we disagreed? Oh, you bet we've disagreed. Bigly. I was terribly disappointed when she fell in with the Mises crowd, but I understood why -- she was under attack (and I publicly supported part of that attack, her removal as LNC secretary); they came to her support/aid. I also predicted, more than once, maybe even on this blog, that she'd be thrown under the bus eventually, and that happened when she (checks notes) did her job as LNC secretary in defiance of the chair's wishes that no one on the LNC do their fucking jobs because doing their jobs would conflict with the Mises PAC's agenda. Our disagreements (and our agreements) are a river passing under a bridge, but the bridge is our friendship and that ain't going away. Got a hug with her at the national convention even though we were way in conflict because she happened to be wrong when I was right. Just sayin'.

NFL Week 4 Results

My Week 4 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints*
• Chicago Bears beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Indianapolis Colts
• New York Jets beat Denver Broncos
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans*
• Washington Commanders beat Arizona Cardinals*
• San Francisco 49ers beat New England Patriots
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Cleveland Browns
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Baltimore Ravens beat Buffalo Bills*
• Miami Dolphins beat Tennessee Titans
• Detroit Lions beat Seattle Seahawks

So: 11 right, five wrong. Not bad. For the season, I am 39 right, 25 wrong and rank in the 95.4th percentile among players of ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

Misdemeanant Me, Election 2024 Edition

2024 Florida Statutes, Title IX, 104.20:

Any elector who, except as provided by law, allows his or her ballot to be seen by any person ... or has in his or her possession, any copies of any ballot prepared to be voted is guilty of a misdemeanor of the first degree ...

My response:

I'm proud to stand with the likes of Caryn Ann Harlos and Susan Hogarth on this clear and unambiguous free speech issue.

Birthday Wishes and a Question

Happy birthday to Jimmy Carter, who today becomes the first former president to reach 100 years of age alive.

Any bets on who will become the first incumbent president to hit 100?

Wordle 1200 Hint

 Hint: When today's Wordle makes a phone call, the conversation tends to be rather baudy.

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First Letter: M

Thanks For Asking! -- October 2024

Got questions? I've got answers! They may not be good, accurate, or helpful answers, but ask me anything in comments and I'll answer (in, or linked to from, comments).

Wordle 1199 Hint

 Hint: Hey, you, get off of mine -- there are at least eight others!

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New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: C

Wordle 1198 Hint

 Hint: You know today's Wordle, and it will miss you when you're gone.

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New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: R

OK, I'm Back ...

... but I haven't been back for long enough to be certain that the electric/cable repairs are finished. In the past, we've sometimes had power for an hour or two and then had it go out again for some amount of time. This time it was about 36 hours of no power. I took the motorcycle downtown for a bit, and it was back on when I returned.

No obvious damage to the house, and everyone's safe. Which, of course, is the preferred outcome. The storm ripped about half the siding off the house next to ours, and dropped some big trees within half a mile or so. It looked/felt like a pretty big blow, but other than the siding, our neighborhood looks like it came out pretty well.

Hope anyone and everyone affected by the storm came out OK -- let us know in comments!

Speaking of the motorcycle:

The "motorcycle garage" arrived on Wednesday, but I wasn't going to put it together and up right before a hurricane. It's really just a glorified cover on a frame of metal rods. It's mean for light protection. I parked the motorcycle in my mechanic friend's real garage across the street.

Yesterday, with not much to do since the power was out, I went over there (he runs a generator and was doing car stuff) and did some work on the bike.

I hadn't noticed until after getting home from the accident that the fall had pushed my handlebars a little to the right. So I loosened the hex bolts that hold them, re-centered them, and tilted them a little further out toward the seat so that I can lean even a little further back than before. I also took a mallet to the left foot peg, which had been ever so slightly bent in the lay-down.

And I took off the little "windshield." It really served no obvious purpose, and frankly I thought it made the bike look like a toy or something. It wasn't big enough to provide significant protection for much of anything, and I suspect if I ever went over the front of the bike, some part of me would catch on that thing and just make everyhing worse.

Both I and my mechanic friend wondered what its aerodynamic effects might be and what would happen in that respect if I removed it. Anecdotally (I didn't have my GPS speedometer app on), I think the main effect was that I achieved a top speed of 60 miles per hour or maybe even 61, instead of the former 58. That's just a guess, based on what the "generous" factory speedometer read (63 mph). And it's possible that I had a perfect tailwind or something.

The bike also looks a bit meaner without the little toy windshield on it. Going with the "mean theme," I have a tiny sticker on the way (the first, and maybe only, sticker I intend to put on the bike):

No prize for figuring out what it means, but take a guess if you like (for the first two letters think "Marine Corps"). I've been seeing those stickers around and had no idea what they meant until I saw then in a Marine Corps context.

Wordle 1195 Hint

Hint: If you're grateful for the daily Wordle hints, say so!

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New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: T

Schrödinger's Car II: This Time It's Personal

Well, more personal, anyway.

I knew I would eventually meet that one driver -- the one I mentioned the other day -- while riding the Italica Bulldog 150.

Just got home from the encounter, with minor scratches to body (left elbow, left knee, just like my motorcycle school "wreck") and bike.

I was entering a 15 mph traffic circle, and wasn't even going the full 15 mph, both because of conditions (rain, some wind, fairly heavy traffic) and because was maybe 50 feet out of my turn onto the road from a gas station/convenience store parking lot and so would have had time to develop much speed even if I'd wanted to.

I saw the guy. You know the guy: Car doing the herky jerky as he vacillated between stopping or just trying to sneak into  the traffic circle ahead of me, even though I was already in it and therefore had right of way.

I went down. I suppose it might have been just my body's reaction while on a wet surface and in a slight lean that caused it, but I think it's more likely that I gave the rear brake a slight reflexive squeeze at the instant I saw he was going for it (which he was), just enough to skid the rear wheel. I was up, back on the bike, and moving in probably ten seconds. Pulled over at the next convenient place to adjust mirrors and check for any serious damage, then rode home.

Would I have hit him if I hadn't gone down? Probably. And then it would have been "his fault," but both me and the bike would have likely ended up in considerably worse shape.

Shit happens. And I was out and about specifically because it was rainy and breezy. The way you get good at riding in such conditions is by riding in such conditions, so I decided to run out and gas up the bike because why not?

Mileage between last fill-up and this one: 68.8 miles per gallon. Average mileage so far: 69.6 miles per gallon.

The Current Forecast ...

... has wind speeds topping out at 35 miles per hour in Gainesville (five miles to my east) late Thursday and early Friday as Helene passes to the west. While Archer (five miles to my west) has 40 mph winds for the same time frame and in the same forecast.

Right now, the eastern edge of the "storm cone" just barely brushes the Gulf coast the west of Gainesville and Archer. But hurricanes have been known to take unexpected turns. Even a slight deviation from predicted path could dramatically change impacts.

Guess I'll be strapping/re-strapping/checking straps on stuff tomorrow morning.

The Italica Bulldog 150 will not be going into the "motorcycle garage" that arrives today. That thing is just a glorified motorcycle "cover" with a light frame, and I won't even bother setting it up until after the storm is past. I've arranged to store it in my mechanic friend's real garage.

If you're in the storm cone, be safe.

NFL Week 4 Picks

NFL Week 4 starts tomorrow night with the Cowboys taking on the Giants.  Here are my picks, entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints*
• Chicago Bears beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Indianapolis Colts
• New York Jets beat Denver Broncos
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans*
• Washington Commanders beat Arizona Cardinals*
• San Francisco 49ers beat New England Patriots
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Cleveland Browns
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Baltimore Ravens beat Buffalo Bills*
• Miami Dolphins beat Tennessee Titans
• Detroit Lions beat Seattle Seahawks