NFL Week 5 Results

My Week 5 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Minnesota Vikings beat New York Jets
• Chicago Bears beat Carolina Panthers
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots*
• Washington Commanders beat Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Houston Texans beat Buffalo Bills*
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Denver Broncos
• San Francisco 49ers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Green Bay Packers beat Los Angeles Rams
• Seattle Seahawks beat New York Giants
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Dallas Cowboys*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat New Orleans Saints

Ten right, four wrong. For the season, I am 49 right, 29 wrong and rank in the 98.8th percentile among players of ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

With a hurricane coming in tonight or tomorrow, I may or may not get my Week 6 picks up before Thursday Night Football kicks off, but I will have verifiably made those picks at the ESPN site (that's on my agenda for today).

Wordle 1207 Hint

Hint: Smoke it if you got it.

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First Letter: J

Well, That Escalated Quickly

Milton went from a Category 1 to a Category 5 in a day.

The most likely storm track still has it passing well south of my house, with "tropical storm" rather than "hurricane" winds likely. But it still looks like it might be a worse time than Helene, even if it doesn't take a slight turn.

Fortunately, a lot of the storm prep I did for Helene hasn't been undone (tying things down, etc.), and I'm already making sure charging power banks are full, etc. Tomorrow I'll do the "fill bathtub, make sure containers are full of water" routine.

Anyway, my best guess is the power/Internet will go out here on Tuesday evening or early Wednesday, hopefully back by Monday.

One Reason I Would Never Vote for Kamala Harris

There are lots of reasons, of course.

But watching Classified: The War on Backpage.com on CiVL today (those are not affiliate links, and registration is required, but it's free) really drove home to me that Harris is basically a more empowered Michelle Carter. She was part of a campaign to hound an innocent man until he killed himself.

Unlike Carter, who used persuasion, Harris used the resources of government to do achieve her ends. 

Unlike Carter, therefore, she belongs in prison (if anyone does, that is -- I'd personally be happier with a large enough civil judgment that she was reduced to, say, sacking groceries for income and living in a weekly-rent motel for the rest of her life).

One place she definitely doesn't belong is the White House (yes, I know, nobody belongs there, but her even less than most).

Wordle 1206 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle is a grind -- try some yeast to get a rise out of it.

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First Letter: F

It's Starting to Look Like a Tom Cruise Autumn

Initially, Hurricane Helene looked like it was coming right at us ("us" meaning my family -- we live a few miles west of Gainesville, Florida). It ended up shifting just enough west that we didn't take the brunt of the storm, and my household in particular was, other than lacking electricity and Internet for 36 hours and cell service for a somewhat shorter period, was mostly untouched.

Now here comes Hurricane Milton. The current storm track has it passing just enough south of us that, once again, we'll be on the edge and maybe not take the worst hit. In fact, last time I noticed, my county (Alachua), isn't even included in the governor's "state of emergency" declaration.

But even the slightest northward shift from the storm's projected path could change that. So, starting late Tuesday or early Wednesday, you may not hear from me for a few days.

In more cheerful news, a motorcycle update:

I rode the Italica Bulldog 150 out to High Springs and back yesterday, having coffee and conversation with reader GregL and a new libertarian friend, LeonA, at the midpoint. It was a great time.

I had tentatively planned on then riding further out, to GregL's place, perhaps for some backgammon and whatnot, but the weather had me worried. I was definitely not going to spend the night, as higher winds are in the forecast for today and I still find wind problematic on a two-wheel vehicle. I came back home mid-to-late afternoon. Ran into a little rain (not a problem) and a little wind (not a problem), and only had one close call. At a particular intersection where there had obviously been heavy rain not long before, a little bit of standing water made me cautious, and rightly so -- during the turn, I got a little rear tire skid, but managed to keep the bike upright.

I also got to travel a little bit of semi-local territory I'd never been over before (I came back by an alternate route that took me over the road between High Springs and Alachua, then skirted Alachua using county roads before hitting the road back into Gainesville, which I had been over before on the 50cc scooter).

As for performance, I have to say that the Brando/Fonzie jacket was a great purchase. As long as the bike was moving with it partially unzipped, I was reasonably cool. I just needed to get it off if I was stopping for more than a minute or three and dismounting. When I got home, the only parts of me that weren't wet were the parts covered by the jacket and by my helmet.

According to Microsoft CoPilot's AI chatbot, the most fuel-efficient RPM rate for a GY6 150cc engine is between 5,000 and 6,000. Based on my experience, I believe that. Between home and High Springs, I ran the bike at, mostly, 50-55 miles per hour, which meant 7-8k RPM. When I got there, I fueled up, and Fuelly tells me that the mileage for the 42 miles between the previous fuel-up and that one was only 59.19 miles per gallon. Almost all of the miles between fuel-ups were "highway"/higher-speed miles rather than town cruising. Other mileages have been in the 65-70 mpg range.

If I seem obsessed with gas mileage, I'm really not. I'll be happy with 50 miles per gallon once I get the bike to be able to reach a top speed of 65-70 miles per hour and cruise comfortably at 55. And I expect that I will have to use more gas to make that happen. The performance air filter has arrived, and I'm considering my options on the exhaust side. A good performance exhaust is kind of expensive, and it's possible that I can just modify the current exhaust for better performance. Once those modifications get done, I'll be able to tell whether the stock carburetor is sufficient, or whether I need to up-jet or replace it to get the power I want out of the bike.

Why do I want more power out of the bike? Because I want its engine to be in its happiest place at that 55-60 "country highway" speed. A happier engine lasts longer. I'd rather spend some money here and there on mods, and slightly more on gas, than have to replace the engine at 10,000 miles (in fact, I doubt I'll replace the engine, ever, unless I just decide I like the frame so much that it's worth doing a complete rebuild with a 250cc manual-shift motorcycle engine to keep that frame; I don't expect that to be my conclusion).

Anyway, a happy ride and an enjoyable time at the ride's mid-point. I was, however, quite sore this morning. The ride back was pretty bumpy compared to the ride out; some of those county roads aren't nearly as well-maintained as the state roads I used to get to High Springs via Archer. I assume Chesty Puller was correct, though: Pain (this kind of pain, anyway) is weakness leaving the body.

Wordle 1205 Hint

Hint: Beer, or cold storage for same.

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First Letter: L

Wordle 1204 Hint

Hint: Neil Young and Cecil Rhodes took very different approaches to this occupation.

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First Letter: M

Brando/Fonzie Jacked Update/Mini-Review

The leather jacket arrived yesterday, and I immediately gave it a motorcycle tryout. Just a short ride, a couple of miles, but I'm pretty pleased with it.

Its Amazon description advertises: "With a water-resistant exterior and micro-mesh thermal lining, stay cool when it’s hot and cozy when it’s not."

That might be a bit of an exaggeration, but not completely false.

The temperature outside was about 90 degrees fahrenheit when I put the jacket on. with the zipper maybe 1/3 of the way down, I remained reasonably cool while in motion on the motorcycle. When not in motion for more than a minute or two, or with the thing zipped up fully, I pretty much roasted. It's at least tolerable while riding in hot weather, and I expect it will do a great job of keeping me warmer in cold weather as well.

The jacket's materials and construction seemed quite good for the price. The stitches look and feel solid. The leather didn't have any obvious blemishes and felt like it was of fairly nice quality. Not that I'm an expert on that kind of thing, but it just feels pretty darn solid as a clothing item.

The elbow, shoulder, and back armor weren't annoying. I could tell they were there, but they didn't interfere with my motion and they weren't uncomfortable. As to their quality, well, I didn't crash the bike to find out about that.

BONUS: Multiple inside pockets, including one with a little picture of a phone on it and a velcro closure. So now I can quit messing around trying to find a phone holder that will fit both the bike and the phone. I think the pocket may even be large enough to fit a little power bank in with the phone. Or I guess I could get a longer USB cable to run in through the jacket. That's only really a big deal on long trips anyway. Unless I need navigation assistance, the phone won't be draining its battery much while I'm riding.

Having the jacket makes me want to get that cap Marlon Brando wears in The Wild One. Not for riding -- I'm all about helmets -- but for a proper answering appearance when people ask me what I'm rebelling against.

Who Won The Port Strike?

In my opinion, everyone except Donald Trump.

The dock workers picked, politically, a great time to go on strike. They could reasonably expect that Joe Biden wouldn't further damage what the Democratic Party has left of the organized labor vote by invoking the Labor Management Relations Act of 1947, aka Taft-Hartley, and order them back to work -- and that he'd sense the opportunity to get back some of that organized labor vote by refusing to.

The port operators were going to have to reckon with contract difficulties and either make concessions or see a strike sooner or later. Better to get at least temporarily through that in a way that gave Biden a boost before the election, because they knew Trump's whackjob tariff/trade proposals would tank their business. Not that Biden's been any better than Trump 1.0 was on the subject, but Trump 2.0 sounds a lot worse.

I'm not saying the short strike / quick resolution was a pre-planned conspiracy, but I do suspect both sides had quick communications from Biden's people pointing out that the more quickly the thing was resolved, and with the least amount of overt government intervention,  the less likely a terrible November outcome for both sides.

A drawn-out strike would have given the Trumpists a month to thunder about how terrible it is that we rely so much on imports, etc., and the GOP's more actively anti-union wing a pretext to whine about how we need a "strong" president who would just conscript those mean ol' workers and force them back on the job (Trump plays "pro-labor" from a protectionist angle, but the larger party not as much).

To the extent the strike gets continuing media play, I expect Democrats to emphasize that the short-term economic panic was just a little preview -- a tiny taste -- of what four more years of Trump would look like, if he got what he says he wants.

Wordle 1203 Hint

Hint: Two examples -- "His Royal Highness The Duke of Sussex, Earl of Dumbarton," and For Whom The Bell Tolls.

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First Letter: T

Wordle 1202 Hint

Hint: Got a dream? Got a song? Paint today's Wordle and come along!

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First Letter: W

Three Conditions, One Decision

Condition #1: Bitcoin is down, and when I spend a little, it almost always goes up immediately afterward.

Condition #2: I've gone over sideways on a motorcycle twice now. Both times I've suffered mild abrasions to my left elbow. The first time, I also ripped my favorite jeans at the left knee and got an abrasion there too. The second time I was wearing some cloth "compression" knee braces, which provide some extra padding, under track suit pants. The pants didn't tear, nor did the brace wear through. The knee was mildly painful but it didn't come in contact with the road surface.

Condition #3:

Decision: Time to quit muddling through the usually mild Florida winters with whatever jacket/coat I happen to have lying around or notice at a thrift store and buy a 1) leather 2) jacket with 3) motorcycle armor (not an affiliate link).

Which I just did.

I considered more modern "MotoGP guy on the way to the track" styles made with supposedly abrasion-resistant nylons, etc., but I suspect leather remains king on the abrasion resistance count even minus the removable elbow/shoulder/back armor, and the Johnny Strabler/Arthur Fonzarelli style is more my kind of thing even when I'm not on the bike.

So now that I've spent 50 USD of Bitcoin, I expect the price to go up by, say, 25% over the next week.

And I'll have a new jacket tomorrow. Which will be nice for a fairly long ride I hope to take this weekend.

NFL Week 5 Picks

NFL Week 5 starts tomorrow night with the Buccaneers taking on the Falcons. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Minnesota Vikings beat New York Jets
• Chicago Bears beat Carolina Panthers
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots*
• Washington Commanders beat Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Houston Texans beat Buffalo Bills*
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Denver Broncos
• San Francisco 49ers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Green Bay Packers beat Los Angeles Rams
• Seattle Seahawks beat New York Giants
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Dallas Cowboys*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat New Orleans Saints

Wordle 1201 Hint

Hint: There's a ghost in today's Wordle! Or maybe it's a mussel.

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First Letter: S

Caryn Ann Harlos Makes One Of My Old Pieces FAR More Interesting

This is the piece in question.

Here's what Caryn Ann did with it:

If you're interested in both the current and historical matters in the libertarian movement and the Libertarian Party, I think you'll find it quite informative. And Caryn Ann's podcasts are always interesting, and I'm flattered that she was able to do something useful with my old essay that added a crap ton of value to it.

Some side notes:

• I'm getting this one in ASAP, because it's important. If you like what Caryn Ann's doing, support her via Patreon. Her recent break with the Mises PAC / LNC over their shilling for the Trump campaign has apparently cost her dearly in that respect. And of course mash that subscribe button on her YouTube channel. Self-aggrandizing self-reference: I was her very first podcast financial patron; I think that was before Patreon even existed, but I'm not sure, and it was before this particular podcast title/format. I'm supporting her work again now.
• I sometimes get weird looks from people when I tell them I consider Caryn Ann a great friend and love her dearly. Have we disagreed? Oh, you bet we've disagreed. Bigly. I was terribly disappointed when she fell in with the Mises crowd, but I understood why -- she was under attack (and I publicly supported part of that attack, her removal as LNC secretary); they came to her support/aid. I also predicted, more than once, maybe even on this blog, that she'd be thrown under the bus eventually, and that happened when she (checks notes) did her job as LNC secretary in defiance of the chair's wishes that no one on the LNC do their fucking jobs because doing their jobs would conflict with the Mises PAC's agenda. Our disagreements (and our agreements) are a river passing under a bridge, but the bridge is our friendship and that ain't going away. Got a hug with her at the national convention even though we were way in conflict because she happened to be wrong when I was right. Just sayin'.

NFL Week 4 Results

My Week 4 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints*
• Chicago Bears beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Indianapolis Colts
• New York Jets beat Denver Broncos
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans*
• Washington Commanders beat Arizona Cardinals*
• San Francisco 49ers beat New England Patriots
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Cleveland Browns
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Baltimore Ravens beat Buffalo Bills*
• Miami Dolphins beat Tennessee Titans
• Detroit Lions beat Seattle Seahawks

So: 11 right, five wrong. Not bad. For the season, I am 39 right, 25 wrong and rank in the 95.4th percentile among players of ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

Misdemeanant Me, Election 2024 Edition

2024 Florida Statutes, Title IX, 104.20:

Any elector who, except as provided by law, allows his or her ballot to be seen by any person ... or has in his or her possession, any copies of any ballot prepared to be voted is guilty of a misdemeanor of the first degree ...

My response:

I'm proud to stand with the likes of Caryn Ann Harlos and Susan Hogarth on this clear and unambiguous free speech issue.

Birthday Wishes and a Question

Happy birthday to Jimmy Carter, who today becomes the first former president to reach 100 years of age alive.

Any bets on who will become the first incumbent president to hit 100?

Wordle 1200 Hint

 Hint: When today's Wordle makes a phone call, the conversation tends to be rather baudy.

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First Letter: M

Thanks For Asking! -- October 2024

Got questions? I've got answers! They may not be good, accurate, or helpful answers, but ask me anything in comments and I'll answer (in, or linked to from, comments).

Wordle 1199 Hint

 Hint: Hey, you, get off of mine -- there are at least eight others!

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First Letter: C

Wordle 1198 Hint

 Hint: You know today's Wordle, and it will miss you when you're gone.

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First Letter: R

OK, I'm Back ...

... but I haven't been back for long enough to be certain that the electric/cable repairs are finished. In the past, we've sometimes had power for an hour or two and then had it go out again for some amount of time. This time it was about 36 hours of no power. I took the motorcycle downtown for a bit, and it was back on when I returned.

No obvious damage to the house, and everyone's safe. Which, of course, is the preferred outcome. The storm ripped about half the siding off the house next to ours, and dropped some big trees within half a mile or so. It looked/felt like a pretty big blow, but other than the siding, our neighborhood looks like it came out pretty well.

Hope anyone and everyone affected by the storm came out OK -- let us know in comments!

Speaking of the motorcycle:

The "motorcycle garage" arrived on Wednesday, but I wasn't going to put it together and up right before a hurricane. It's really just a glorified cover on a frame of metal rods. It's mean for light protection. I parked the motorcycle in my mechanic friend's real garage across the street.

Yesterday, with not much to do since the power was out, I went over there (he runs a generator and was doing car stuff) and did some work on the bike.

I hadn't noticed until after getting home from the accident that the fall had pushed my handlebars a little to the right. So I loosened the hex bolts that hold them, re-centered them, and tilted them a little further out toward the seat so that I can lean even a little further back than before. I also took a mallet to the left foot peg, which had been ever so slightly bent in the lay-down.

And I took off the little "windshield." It really served no obvious purpose, and frankly I thought it made the bike look like a toy or something. It wasn't big enough to provide significant protection for much of anything, and I suspect if I ever went over the front of the bike, some part of me would catch on that thing and just make everyhing worse.

Both I and my mechanic friend wondered what its aerodynamic effects might be and what would happen in that respect if I removed it. Anecdotally (I didn't have my GPS speedometer app on), I think the main effect was that I achieved a top speed of 60 miles per hour or maybe even 61, instead of the former 58. That's just a guess, based on what the "generous" factory speedometer read (63 mph). And it's possible that I had a perfect tailwind or something.

The bike also looks a bit meaner without the little toy windshield on it. Going with the "mean theme," I have a tiny sticker on the way (the first, and maybe only, sticker I intend to put on the bike):

No prize for figuring out what it means, but take a guess if you like (for the first two letters think "Marine Corps"). I've been seeing those stickers around and had no idea what they meant until I saw then in a Marine Corps context.

Wordle 1195 Hint

Hint: If you're grateful for the daily Wordle hints, say so!

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First Letter: T

Schrödinger's Car II: This Time It's Personal

Well, more personal, anyway.

I knew I would eventually meet that one driver -- the one I mentioned the other day -- while riding the Italica Bulldog 150.

Just got home from the encounter, with minor scratches to body (left elbow, left knee, just like my motorcycle school "wreck") and bike.

I was entering a 15 mph traffic circle, and wasn't even going the full 15 mph, both because of conditions (rain, some wind, fairly heavy traffic) and because was maybe 50 feet out of my turn onto the road from a gas station/convenience store parking lot and so would have had time to develop much speed even if I'd wanted to.

I saw the guy. You know the guy: Car doing the herky jerky as he vacillated between stopping or just trying to sneak into  the traffic circle ahead of me, even though I was already in it and therefore had right of way.

I went down. I suppose it might have been just my body's reaction while on a wet surface and in a slight lean that caused it, but I think it's more likely that I gave the rear brake a slight reflexive squeeze at the instant I saw he was going for it (which he was), just enough to skid the rear wheel. I was up, back on the bike, and moving in probably ten seconds. Pulled over at the next convenient place to adjust mirrors and check for any serious damage, then rode home.

Would I have hit him if I hadn't gone down? Probably. And then it would have been "his fault," but both me and the bike would have likely ended up in considerably worse shape.

Shit happens. And I was out and about specifically because it was rainy and breezy. The way you get good at riding in such conditions is by riding in such conditions, so I decided to run out and gas up the bike because why not?

Mileage between last fill-up and this one: 68.8 miles per gallon. Average mileage so far: 69.6 miles per gallon.

The Current Forecast ...

... has wind speeds topping out at 35 miles per hour in Gainesville (five miles to my east) late Thursday and early Friday as Helene passes to the west. While Archer (five miles to my west) has 40 mph winds for the same time frame and in the same forecast.

Right now, the eastern edge of the "storm cone" just barely brushes the Gulf coast the west of Gainesville and Archer. But hurricanes have been known to take unexpected turns. Even a slight deviation from predicted path could dramatically change impacts.

Guess I'll be strapping/re-strapping/checking straps on stuff tomorrow morning.

The Italica Bulldog 150 will not be going into the "motorcycle garage" that arrives today. That thing is just a glorified motorcycle "cover" with a light frame, and I won't even bother setting it up until after the storm is past. I've arranged to store it in my mechanic friend's real garage.

If you're in the storm cone, be safe.

NFL Week 4 Picks

NFL Week 4 starts tomorrow night with the Cowboys taking on the Giants.  Here are my picks, entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints*
• Chicago Bears beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Indianapolis Colts
• New York Jets beat Denver Broncos
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans*
• Washington Commanders beat Arizona Cardinals*
• San Francisco 49ers beat New England Patriots
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Cleveland Browns
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Baltimore Ravens beat Buffalo Bills*
• Miami Dolphins beat Tennessee Titans
• Detroit Lions beat Seattle Seahawks

Wordle 1194 Hint

Hint: Let there be light (in a form you can carry with you).

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First Letter: T

NFL Week 3 Results

 My Week 3 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• New York Jets beat New England Patriots
• Cleveland Browns beat New York Giants
• Green Bay Packers beat Tennessee Titans
• Chicago Bears beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Houston Texans*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat New Orleans Saints*
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Denver Broncos
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Carolina Panthers
• Miami Dolphins beat Seattle Seahawks*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Dallas Cowboys
• San Francisco 49ers beat Los Angeles Rams
• Detroit Lions beat Arizona Cardinals
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Atlanta Falcons
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Buffalo Bills*
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Washington Commanders

Eight right, eight wrong.

Yet I moved up to the 83.5th percentile among players of ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. Clearly I'm not the only one who had a bad week. 93%  picked the Browns to beat the Giants. 97% picked the Buccaneersto beat the Broncos. 96% picked the Raiders to beat the Panthers. 93% picked the 49ers picked to beat the Rams. 90% picked the Bengals to beat the Commanders.

The undefeated -- so far -- teams in the NFL at this point are the Chiefs, the Vikings, the Steelers, the Seahawks, and the Bills.

Schrödinger's Car

Every car stopped at an intersection which you're approaching is simultaneously (in a probabilistic sense and from your point of view):

1. Waiting for you to go by before turning;
2. Turning in front of you at an unsafe distance even though you have right of way.

You do not know, and cannot know, which is the case until you're either safely past, or braking/swerving to avoid a collision.

While that's the case with all "approaching intersection at which car will be turning" situations, my own pet peeve is the driver who makes up his mind at the last possible second, burns rubber to get in front of me ... then immediately slows down to well below the legal speed limit.

If he was in such a hurry, why didn't he pull out earlier and more safely, and why is he now driving like old people fuck after scaring more gray into my hair?

Wordle 1193 Hint

Hint: The answer to today's Wordle is both useful and within easy reach.

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First Letter: H

It's Alive!

So far, my only criticism of the "Y10 Motorcycle Helmet Bluetooth Headset with HiFi Stereo Sound, Noise Reduction, 1000mAh Battery, Helmet Bluetooth Headset Speakers with RGB, IPX6 Waterproof, Hand Free, Easy Set Up" (not an affiliate link) which arrived at my door yesterday is that the enclosed instructions were published in excessively fine print (I finally had to hand them off to Tamara to stare at under a light), written/illustrated in typical "Chinglish," and minimal even where understandable.

Fortunately, there was an installation video at the Amazon listing for the headset.

And now that the thing is in my helmet and I've done a little video searching on how to actually use it, I can in fact talk on the phone with it, which I don't really want to do, or press a button on it that invokes my phone's "personal assistant" software, and  say something like "navigate to Mazeppa, Minnesota" or "what time does Dick Mondell's Burgers & Fries close tonight?" and get instructions/answers which I can actually hear while riding down a busy highway at 55 mph, which is exactly what I bought it for.

No, the Italica Bulldog 150 isn't really a "drive from Gainesville to Mazeppa" vehicle. But there are lots of places even within 50 miles or so that I would require navigation assistance to find. Especially since all the streets in Gainesville are just quadrants (northwest, northeast, southeast, southwesst) and numbers followed by "street," "lanem" "avenue," "boulevard," "terrace," "court," "way," "drive," etc.

Outside the quadrant context, it's never really obvious that a numbered thing will be anywhere near another similarly numbered thing. For example, to get from SW 82nd Lane to Southwest 82nd Place is a journey of 6.3 miles. Getting from the former to the latter requires six turns and travel down 107th Street, Florida State Road 24 (aka SW Archer Road), SW 75th Street, SW 85th Avenue, and State Road 121 (aka SW Williston Road). They have similar names, but other than that the sole shared characteristic is that they're both south of University Avenue and west of Main Street.

I guess I could also listen to music on the headset, but I'm not sure that would be very safe and probably won't do it unless I'm on a long lonely country highway ride or something. Its main utility is helping me get from Point A to Point B.

Election 2024: It's Always a Concern, But It's Not, Strictly Speaking, The Point

Alexander Bolton at The Hill:

Senate Democrats are worried pollsters are once again undercounting the Trump vote and say Vice President Harris’s slim lead in battleground states, especially Pennsylvania, is cause for serious concern. ... Democratic lawmakers are growing nervous that their party may once again feel lulled into a false sense of optimism amid polls showing Harris with small but consistent leads in three crucial states that make up the “blue wall”: Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

As you may recall, one factor in my 2016 "Trump is gonna win this prediction was my perception that pollsters weren't reaching a particular demographic -- rural people who didn't usually vote and who may have "cut the cord" on land line phones -- and were thus under-counting Trump's likely support.

My Scientific Wild Ass Guess onthe effect of that was that in states with significant rural populations where Clinton was polling less than five points ahead it was in reality at best a tie, and if she was polling less than three points ahead she was actually behind.

I think at least part of that polling problem has been solved -- I'm a rural resident who's been reached by pollsters on my cell phone rather than a land line in every election since that one.

As for the other part, people who didn't usually vote prior to 2016, but got out to vote for Trump in 2016 and again in 2020, are probably in pollsters' "likely voter" databases now.

But there was another factor in my model, and it remains there. That factor is enthusiasm, and no matter how they try, pollsters don't seem to be able to capture that as well. My method is anecdotal. 

In 2016, even actually in Gainesville (hippy dippy doo university-centered city that definitely trends Gainesville), I barely saw any Hillary Clinton signs or bumper stickers.

But heading west out of Gainesville toward "the sticks," you could pull over at just about any random point and see at least on Trump sign somewhere ahead of you, behind you, or next to you. It may have been possible to find a point along Highway 24 between Gainesville and Cedar Key to find a stopping spot with no Trump signs in view, but I wouldn't have bet money on it.

Probably half the pickup trucks had Trump stickers on them, and I frequently saw a pickup truck driving up and down the highway with a HUGE Trump flag affixed to a pole in its bed. I don't know if they were going places or just literally "showing the flag," but I probably saw that truck at least 20 of the times I had occasion to head west from my home for more than a mile on Highway 24 (I live right off the highway, about five miles west of Gainesville).

Even in hippy dippy doo Gainesville, Trump signs/stickers probably outnumbered Clinton signs/stickers by at least ten to one. There were periodic.  "sign waves" on main roads, with crowds of 10-20 people waving Trump signs. The full extent of active Clinton campaigning that I saw first-hand was at the fall Pride festival downtown, where I ran into none other than Debbie Wasserman Schultz, personally campaigning (far from her House district) for her party's nominee.

This year, I'm seeing far more Harris/Walz signs and stickers in town than I saw for either Clinton  in 2016 or Biden in 2020.

Out of town, I'm not seeing the truck with the flag, I'm seeing fewer Trump stickers/signs than I did in 2016 or 2020, and most those I'm seeing are age-faded and/or in front of some, but not all, of the same houses that had them out in 2016 and/or 2020.

What are you seeing in your area?

In anything like a close election, a higher percentage of enthused voters than of "have a preference, but meh" voters will actually cast ballots.

Trump won in 2016, but his actively enthused base is smaller now than it was then.

Not just because of his crazy talk or mean tweets, but because he's no long the shiny new exciting thing who activates previously inactive voters.

More party-centric Republican-leaning voters notice that Trump has, on balance, hurt the GOP down-ticket. Remember what it was like when Obama was in office and Trump wasn't a candidate for office? The GOP took both houses of Congress and held them for eight years.

Meanwhile, Democratic-leaning voters seem to have worked up a reasonable leve of enthusiasm for Harris -- and a number of states have ballot issues that also excite them.

Yes, Harris could shit the bed in some creative new way, and kill that enthusiasm.

But the Trump campaign is treading water and trying not to drown, not coming up with anything that might re-kindle the 2016 enthusiasm or even the 2020 enthusiasm among those for who it has faded.

Wordle 1192 Hint

Hint: Careful with today's Wordle -- if it was any cooler, you might end up in hot water.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1191 Hint

Hint: For two usages of today's Wordle (an activity and a proper name) think "a class on Blackbeard."

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New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: T

Election 2024: My 50-State Predictions

Will this be the fourth presidential election in a row for which I accurately predict the outcome in 48 (or more) states?

I'm never extremely confident this far out, and this time I'm less confident than usual. But I have standards, and two of them are:

• No waiting until the very last minute and just going with whatever the polls say; and
• No reservations with "toss-ups," etc. This is a "how I predict it will come out" statement, not a "how I think that maybe it might come out" statement. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and I won't be able to come back and say "well, as you can see, I threw in a bunch of caveats so really I wasn't wrong."

Why I'm less confident and why I very well could be wrong on several "swing" states:

A lot can happen in 44 days. Harris could commit some exceptionally horrendous blunder that up-ends things. Trump could get his shit together and start running a credible ground game. One of the candidates could suffer a severe (or event the ultimate) negative health event, naturally or otherwise.

But let's get to the state by state map, which I drew up using 270 To Win's handy dandy tool:

As you can see, I predict that Kamala Harris will win all of the swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. I'm least confident about Georgia, but that's my pick.

Why?

Harris the momentum. She has an enthused base that will turn out. She's raising tons of money to advertise to, and deploy a well-organized ground effort to reach, the theoretically "undecideds." I don't really believe true "undecideds" exist at this point, but that's irrelevant: The ads and ground game will enthuse those "leaning" her way to actually vote, while depressing those who "lean" toward Trump and making them wonder if it's worth the bother.

She's in the driver's seat. Yes, she could wreck the car, but she has the wheel.

Trump doesn't. He's not out there convincing anyone who hasn't been convinced for years already, and he's lost a lot of those who were previously convinced in 2016 and/or 2020. It doesn't seem likely that he's about to become newly persuasive, and he's apparently handed his Get Out The Vote effort off to novices with neither the motivation to e.g. walk precincts and knock on doors nor the institutional connections to get others to do that for them.

Mean tweets and increasingly deranged public rants won't lose Trump's remaining base for him -- but that base is smaller than it used to be, and mean tweets and increasingly deranged public rants won't re-grow it.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party is having to pull out all stops just to hold lower offices in "Trump-safe" states like Florida (where US Senator Rick Scott is ahead of, but flirting with margin of error versus, Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and there are ballot issues likely to increase Democratic turnout) and Texas (where US Senator Ted Cruz is neck and neck with Democratic challenger Colin Allred). That's money and effort that can't be used in those swing states.

Yeah, I may be wrong on a state or two. But I doubt it. And I don't expect to be wrong by the 51 electoral votes it would take to put Trump rather than Harris in the Oval Office.

Wordle 1190 Hint

Hint: The size of Kambei Shimada's army.

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First Letter: S

A Downgrade I've Been Looking Forward To For Years

One thing I hated about living in St. Louis was not being able to see the stars very well at all.

When we moved to Gainesville, I was happy to be living in an area that's a six, rather than an eight to nine, on the Bortle Scale. Major constellations are much more obvious, it's possible to see Mars and Venus at the right times, etc.

Bit it's only about 15 miles to an area (out west past Bronson) that's only a three, and only about 25 miles to the Otter Creek area, which is a two.

I've always loved a very, very dark cloudless night. Parts of the Mojave, rural Nevada, rural Utah, etc. are at 1 or 2 on the Bortle Scale and the stars are just magnificent. I can see why ancient man was so obsessed with them.

For years, I've been suggesting to Tamara that we pick a good night during a meteor shower or other notable celestial event and go have a late-night picnic beneath the stars. But there's always some reason why not.

I was afraid to try it with a bicycle, electric bicycle, or 50cc scooter. I just don't know those roads very well, and didn't fancy being out on them without the ability to move fast.

The new motorcycle solves the latter problem, but I do want to get some more night-time riding in before I hit unfamiliar territory in the dark. The bike is past the 400-mile mark now, and probably 370 of those miles are daytime miles. In fact, I may go for a local cruise tonight. Some of the nearby roads are fairly dark even though they're still well inside Gainesville's light pollution cone.

Side note: The lower gas mileage reading (66.26 miles per gallon versus the initial 71.97) after installing the new plug and coil was apparently an outlier. After today's fill-up, it measured 71.13 miles per gallon). All-time average, 69.9 mpg.

Wordle 1189 Hint

Hint: Montreux water feature, circa 1971.

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First Letter: S

Pleasant Bitcoin Surprises and New Motorcycle Stuff

As I've mentioned before, it feels like any time I spend a significant amount of Bitcoin, the price shoots up immediately afterward.

This morning, I decided to spend a significant amount of Bitcoin ($200 worth in the form of an Amazon gift card via BitRefill -- yes, that is an affiliate link, we both get $5 worth of BTC if you join through it and spend $200), and was pleasantly surprised that the dollar value of BTC had increased from about $59k to more than $63k while I slept. So I'm getting more stuff for my Bitcoin than I expected to, even if it does race to $70k now that I've spent a little.

So, you might wonder, what did I buy? Glad you asked!

The small stuff (the links are NOT affiliate links):

• A $9.99 assortment of motorcycle center stand springs, at least one of which will hopefully substitute well for the one that went missing from the Italica Bulldog 500.
• A $16.99 Bluetooth headset for my motorcycle helmet. I don't expect it to be used much for things like music or phone calls -- I try to ride safely -- but I want to be able to hear instructions from a navigation app, which proved to be problematic from a handlebar-mounted phone at, say, 50 miles per hour in traffic (speaking of which, the phone now goes in a velcro-mounted waterproof bag atop the gas tank cover).
• A pair of comfortable-looking short work/hiking/motorcycling boots that I noticed on sale for $19.99.

The big thing: A $150 motorcycle "shed."

Covering the bike is not really optional. For most of the year in Florida, there are two kinds of weather: Very rainy and very sunny.

You can identify a non-garage-kept car in Florida from the paint fade/disintegration on its hood. It's not just the engine heat causing that, it's long-term daily exposure to the sun.

On the rain side, your car seat is generally dry if it's been raining out. Not so a motorcycle seat. And if it's rainy and windy, the mechanical innards of a motorcycle get a lot more water exposure than with a car.

Nothing against my cheap "drape it over" motorcycle cover, but there are problems, both with it and with me.

The problems with it include its tight fit and elastic band. No matter how careful I am, I suspect that sooner or later, I will snag on, and snap off, a turn signal while putting it on or pulling it off. Also, I don't reall trust the elastic or the straps very much, so I weigh it down at each end, meaning that when I'm ready to leave I have to move a 32 pound kettle bell from in front of it.

The problems with me are laziness and inattentiveness.

Heck, it doesn't look like rain today, I'll put the cover on later (after which I remember, about the time the skies open up).

I'm in a hurry, I'l just pull it off and throw it down real quick and haul ass (after which I notice the sound of something -- you know what -- dragging behind me as I drive down the street).

This thing solves both those problems.

Drive up, roll the bike in, grab metal frame, pull closed, walk away. Walk up, grab metal frame, pull open, roll the bike out, drive away. Plenty of room, no clinging to turn signals, etc., nothing else to move, nothing to procrastinate about, etc.

And as a bonus, the cheap cover can replace the even cheaper cover on the old 50cc scooter which isn't getting much use these days.

Wordle 1188 Hint

Hint: The missing item in this group: Religion, speech, ____, assembly, petitioning.

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First Letter: P

Week 3 NFL Picks

NFL Week 3 starts tomorrow night with The New England Patriots going up against the New York Jets.  Here are my picks, entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

• New York Jets beat New England Patriots
• Cleveland Browns beat New York Giants
• Green Bay Packers beat Tennessee Titans
• Chicago Bears beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Houston Texans*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat New Orleans Saints*
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Denver Broncos
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Carolina Panthers
• Miami Dolphins beat Seattle Seahawks*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Dallas Cowboys
• San Francisco 49ers beat Los Angeles Rams
• Detroit Lions beat Arizona Cardinals
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Atlanta Falcons
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Buffalo Bills
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Washington Commanders

I've appended an asterisk to my "upset" picks -- that is, picks that don't agree with the majority as of the time I make them.

Functionality Wins in Conflict vs. Cosmetics

One of my plans regarding the Bulldog 150cc was to keep it as cosmetically pristine as possible, since one of my other plans is to sell it in a couple of years. Aside from a bike that performs well (due to regular maintenance/TLC and upgrades to its various parts), I want to be able to list a bike that looks good.

BUT!

In this day and age, it's unthinkable to not have a smart phone mounted on the bike somewhere visible from the rider's vantage point. You can use it to navigate unfamiliar routes. You can use it to give you a more accurate estimate of speed than the stock gauges. If it rings, you can glance at it and see whether it's a call you can ignore or a call you need to pull over and answer.

I mounted an el cheapo phone holder on the handlebar, positioned such that it can be constantly charged form the bike's USB port. It worked, but not well. Instead of its edges popping into place around the phone, they had to be manually squeezed, and I was always worried that they'd give way and let the phone go flying. And the thing rattled like hell if I rode without the phone in it.

So I ordered a better one. It's really quite nice. Except that my phone (which is built into a thicker than normal case) won't fit in it.

Thought number three: Get one of those magnetic bags that you just slap on the gas tank. They hold on very well and many come with transparent touch-screen-compatible windows for your phone.

Nope. The bike has a lot of plastic over the tank, such that a magnet doesn't stick.

So, I'm going with a simple sub-$5 waterproof/touch-screen-window phone bag, arriving today.

It has a lanyard that I can hitch around the handlebars so that if it comes flying off the tank at least it won't get very far.

Affixing it to the tank will be a  matter of attaching velcro strip pairs to the plastic tank cover and to the phone bag.

So when I sell the bike, it will either have velcro strips on its tank cover, or whatever residue from those strips I can't get off, or non-uniform tank cover color where some of the bike has been exposed to sun/weather and some hasn't.

I guess the velcro strips might be something I can sell as a feature rather than a bug, especially if I throw the phone bag in as part of the deal.

Wordle 1187 Hint

Hint: No half-measures -- you need to be all in to solve today's Wordle.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: F

Things NFL Players Don't Need From Me, And Things I Don't Need From NFL Players

Tua Tagovailoa doesn't need my advice on whether he should retire now that he's on injured reserve after his third (known) concussion on the field.

The only advice he needs is the advice he either thinks he should listen to (friends, loved ones, trusted doctors, etc.), or has no choice but to listen to (presumably the Dolphins, Roger Goodell, and/or other NFL officials could make that kind of decision for him whether he agrees or not).

Yes, he seems to be financially secure if he decides to pack it in. But he clearly loves playing football (you don't just happen to end up playing for the Crimson Tide and the Dolphins; that takes talent and hard work and focused commitment and overwhelming desire).

Fans' concern for his health is all good and well, but the fans don't get to make this decision for him. We just get to wish him the best with whatever decision he makes.

I don't need Brett Favre's lectures on whether or not I'm sufficiently "patriotic." He was a football player. Since then, he's been an actor and, allegedly, a corporate welfare cheat. None of those things qualify him to teach me, or anyone else, about patriotism -- whether it's good or bad, and whether we possess enough, not enough, or too much of it.

But I am going to put in a plug for a movie he turned up in: There's Something About Mary. I won't spoil your fun if you haven't seen it, but it also features my favorite musician of all time: Jonathan Richman. Here's Richman performing the theme song from the movie (live, not in the movie so as to not risk any spoilers):

NFL Week 2 Results

Wow ... what a bloodbath!

My Week 2 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Miami Dolphins beat Buffalo Bills
• Dallas Cowboys beat New Orleans Saints
• Detroit Lions beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Green Bay Packers beat Indianapolis Colts*
• New York Giants beat Washington Comanders*
• San Francisco 49ers beat Minnesota Vikings
• Seattle Seahawks beat New England Patriots
• New York Jets beat Tennessee Titans
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Carolina Panthers
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Cleveland Browns
• Baltimore Ravens beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams beat Arizona Cardinals
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Denver Broncos
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Chicago Bears beat Houston Texans*
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Atlanta Falcons

I only got six out of 16 correct.

I'm far from alone, though. Of the ten I got wrong, I picked "with the majority" -- generally the huge majority, 85% or more, on eight. I'm still in the top 22.4% among those playing ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game, and for the season I'm at 20 correct, 12 incorrect.

Week 3 picks coming tomorrow or Thursday.