Well, That Sucks for the Broncos

In the AFC Divisional Round, the Denver Broncos beat the Buffalo Bills in overtime ... an OT which I did not expect and didn't notice until this morning. I briefly tuned into the game in the third quarter, when the Broncos were well ahead, saw Josh Allen throw an interception, kind of assumed it would be a blow-out, and went back to other things than football.

Blowing that lead and having to win in overtime cost Denver their starting quarterback, Bo Nix, who broke his ankle ... which means they'll be relying on backup  QB Jarrett Stidham in the AFC championship game -- in which they'll probably face Stidham's former team, the New England Patriots.  Even if New England really bobbles it and the Broncos play Houston instead, I'm guessing Denver's post-season is over.

I also didn't watch the NFC side, in which the Seahawks beat San Francisco (I predicted the opposite). So the NFC championship will come down to Seattle versus the Rams or the Bears. My busted bracket, and my continuing predictions after the bust, have the Rams whipping everyone until they lose the Super Bowl, which I still expect, although I'm sad that it will probably be the Patriots rather than the Jaguars giving them the beatdown.

NFL Wild Card Round Bracket Outcomes, Modified Divisional Round Predictions

The sad thing about a bracket is that a single pick can destroy the final prediction. I went five for six on the NFL's Wild Card Round, but the one I missed involved the team I expected to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

I correctly picked the Patriots to beat the Chargers and the Texans to beat the Steelers in the AFC, and correctly picked the Rams to beat the Panthers, the 49ers to beat the Eagles, and the Bears to beat the Packers in the NFC.

My bracket being busted on the AFC side, I'll move my picks for the AFC Divisional Round, as modified by that outcome, here just for fun:

• The Denver Broncos will beat the Buffalo Bills, and
• The New England Patriots will beat the Houston Texans

The NFC side of the bracket is still at 100%, and I still expect the 49ers to beat the Seahawks and the Rams to beat the Bears in that conference's Divisional Round.

NFL Post-Season Bracket

You can actually see the bracket here (at ESPN's Pigskin Bracket Challenge), but I'll break it down in plain text as well:

Wild Card Round, AFC:

• Broncos have a bye
• Texans beat Steelers
• Jaguars beat Bills
• Patriots beat Chargers

Divisional Round, AFC:

• Broncos beat Texans
• Jaguars beat Patriots

Conference Championship, AFC:

• Jaguars beat Broncos

Wild Card Round, NFC:

• Seahawks have a bye
• Rams beat Panthers
• 49ers beat Eagles
• Bears beat Packers (corrected in this post thanks to an alert commenter -- see linked bracket).

Divisional Round, NFC:

• 49ers beat Seahawks
• Rams beat Bears

Conference Championship, NFC:

• Rams beat 49ers

Super Bowl:

• Jaguars beat Rams

Disagree? That's fine, but rando talk is cheap. If you want to put your bracket up against mine, you can do so at this link. If not, feel free to STFU.

NFL Week 18 Results

I went nine right, seven wrong for the week -- not a terrible performance, and I did move up from 79.5th percentile to 80.7th percentile among players in ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em Game ... but it really should have been better. I expected the Chiefs to at least be able to beat the damn Raiders; I expected the Broncos to sit their star players versus the Chargers rather than vice-versa; and even with the Eagles sitting their starters, I still expected them to easily handle the Commanders. Oh, well. Correct picks in green, incorrect in red:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Carolina Panthers
• San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns
• Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers*
• Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Tennessee Titans
• Houston Texans beat Indianapolis Colts
• Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets
• Chicago Bears beat Detroit Lions
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Denver Broncos*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams beat Arizona Cardinals
• New England Patriots beat Miami Dolphins
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Washington Commanders
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens*

I ended up with a season record of 161 correct, 109 incorrect,

NFL Week 18 Picks

No Thursday Night Football this week -- the final weekend of the NFL's 2025 regular season begins Saturday with the Panthers playing the Buccaneers. My picks:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Carolina Panthers
• San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns
• Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers*
• Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Tennessee Titans
• Houston Texans beat Indianapolis Colts
• Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets
• Chicago Bears beat Detroit Lions
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Denver Broncos*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams beat Arizona Cardinals
• New England Patriots beat Miami Dolphins
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Washington Commanders
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens*

"Upset" picks --  predicted outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks -- are marked with asterisks. If I change any picks, I will do so before the games in question kick off and clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

NFL Week 17 Results

Wow, that was a pretty crappy week for my predictive abilities -- seven right, nine wrong. As a result, I moved down a whopping 0.1% in ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game, from the 79.6th percentile to the 79.5th. So I guess a lot of other players had bad weeks too. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red:

• Dallas Cowboys beat Washington Commanders
• Detroit Lions beat Minnesota Vikings
• Denver Broncos beat Kansas City Chiefs
• Houston Texans beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• Green Bay Packers beat Baltimore Ravens
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Arizona Cardinals
• Seattle Seahawks beat Carolina Panthers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cleveland Browns
• Tennessee Titans beat New Orleans Saints*
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis Colts
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Miami Dolphins
• New England Patriots beat New York Jets
• Las Vegas Raiders beat New York Giants*
• Buffalo Bills beat Philadelphia Eagles
• Chicago Bears beat San Francisco 49ers*
• Los Angeles Rams beat Atlanta Falcons

While I'm not terribly enthused about the post-season, I'm glad that the Jaguars will make the playoffs (wild card berth if they lose to the Titans and the Texans beat Indianapolis in Week 18; otherwise, the Jaguars take the AFC South).

NFL Week 16 Results

In Week 16, I did a little better than usual -- 11 right, five wrong -- and moved up to the 79.6th percentile in ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red:

• Los Angeles Rams beat Seattle Seahawks
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Washington Commanders
• Chicago Bears beat Green Bay Packers
• Buffalo Bills beat Cleveland Browns
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Dallas Cowboys
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Tennessee Titans
• New Orleans Saints beat New York Jets
• Minnesota Vikings beat New York Giants
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Carolina Panthers
• Miami Dolphins beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Denver Broncos*
• Atlanta Falcons beat Arizona Cardinals
• Detroit Lions beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• Houston Texans beat Las Vegas Raiders
• New England Patriots beat Baltimore Ravens
• San Francisco 49ers beat Indianapolis Colts

It gets a little weirder from here on out: Teams that have assured their playoff berths/seeds -- or been excluded -- may rest their usual starters and lose games they'd have normally won.

My expectation is that the Kansas City Chiefs, with a busted season, will  largely use their last few games as auditions/tests for players who've seen little or no game time this year. In addition to Mahomes and Minshew being out with injuries and Kelce likely retiring, they've got other players who are on the injury list or who may be looking at the door. So Andy Reid will try to get a jump on putting together the 2026 squad. That doesn't mean they necessarily WON'T win any more, but I'm not really expecting them to.

F*CK the Kansas City Chiefs

After more than half a century at Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs are going on the corporate welfare teat and moving across the border from Missouri to Kansas as of 2031 ... to collect nearly $2 billion in corporate welfare for a new stadium.

On a quick search, the Chiefs seem to have turned a profit of more than $100 million last year, and that number seems to have been rising annually over time.

But they want taxpayers to buy them a new stadium.

They could have set aside a buck per ticket from the outrageous prices over the years, or earmarked branded merch profits for the "building fund," or whatever, but no ... they're not asking their fans to help them out, they're commanding the non-Chiefs-fan taxpayer to fork over because REASONS.

Boo. Fuck that. Fuck them.

When the Cardinals baseball franchise pulled that shit on me as a St. Louis-area taxpayer, my response (submitted to, but not published by, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) was that they should at least be willing to commemorate the mugging by renaming themselves "the St. Louis Welfare Queens"), and I never bought another ticket.

My hatred for the (now Los Angeles based) Rams is based entirely on them getting a taxpayer-funded stadium in St. Louis, then fleeing the state when they couldn't get ANOTHER one while the first one was still functional.

Yeah, I know other teams do it too. But the Chiefs are supposed to be better than that.

NFL Week 15 Results

This week, I picked eight games correctly and eight games incorrectly, and dropped from the 78.7th percentile among players in ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em Game to the 77.8th percentile. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Atlanta Falcons
• Chicago Bears beat Cleveland Browns
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• New England Patriots beat Buffalo Bills*
• New York Giants beat Washington Commanders
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat New York Jets
• Houston Texans beat Arizona Cardinals
• Denver Broncos beat Green Bay Packers
• Detroit Lions beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Carolina Panthers  beat New Orleans Saints
• San Francisco 49ers beat Tennessee Titans
• Seattle Seahawks beat Indianapolis Colts
• Dallas Cowboys beat Minnesota Vikings
• Miami Dolphins beat Pittsburgh Steelers*

The big story of the week, of course, is that the playoffs will be Kansas-City-Chiefs-free for the first time since 2014. And even if they weren't excluded already, a season-ending injury for QB Patrick Mahomes (torn ACL) would have probably stopped them at the wild card round instead of taking them to the AFC championship game for the eighth year in a row, or the Super Bowl for the fourth year in a row.

A poor season for the Chiefs makes the NFL generally less interesting to me, but I'll continue to make picks, and to cheer for my second favorite team, the Jacksonville Jaguars.

NFL Week 15 Picks

Week 15 of the NFL season kicks off tomorrow night with the Atlanta Falcons going up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. My picks:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Atlanta Falcons
• Chicago Bears beat Cleveland Browns
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• New England Patriots beat Buffalo Bills*
• New York Giants beat Washington Commanders
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat New York Jets
• Houston Texans beat Arizona Cardinals
• Denver Broncos beat Green Bay Packers
• Detroit Lions beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Carolina Panthers  beat Los Angeles Rams
• San Francisco 49ers beat Tennessee Titans
• Seattle Seahawks beat Indianapolis Colts
• Dallas Cowboys beat Minnesota Vikings
• Miami Dolphins beat Pittsburgh Steelers*

"Upset" picks --  predicted outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks -- are marked with asterisks. If I change any picks, I will do so before the games in question kick off and clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

NFL Week 14 Results

Eight right, six wrong for the week. Meh.  Apparently many others had a pretty meh week as well -- I moved up from 77.4th to the 78.7th percentile among players in ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em Game. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red:

• Detroit Lions beat Dallas Cowboys
• Seattle Seahawks beat Atlanta Falcons
• Cleveland Browns beat Tennessee Titans
• Washington Commanders beat Minnesota Vikings
• Miami Dolphins beat New York Jets
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New Orleans Saints
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Indianapolis Colts*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• Buffalo Bills beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Denver Broncos beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Chicago Bears beat Green Bay Packers*
• Los Angeles Rams beat Arizona Cardinals
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Houston Texans
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Philadelphia Eagles*

NFL Week 13 Results

Ten right, six wrong for the week -- I've done better, I've done worse.  I'm in the 77.4th percentile among players in ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em Game. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red:

• Detroit Lions beat Green Bay Packers
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Dallas Cowboys
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Chicago Bears beat Philadelphia Eagles*
• San Francisco 49ers beat Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Tennessee Titans
• Indianapolis Colts beat Houston Texans
• Miami Dolphins beat New Orleans Saints
• Atlanta Falcons beat New York Jets
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Los Angeles Rams beat Carolina Panthers
• Seattle Seahawks beat Minnesota Vikings
• Buffalo Bills beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Denver Broncos beat Washington Commanders
• New England Patriots beat New York Giants

NFL Week 13 Picks

Week 13 of the NFL season kicks off this afternoon with Thanksgiving football -- three games starting at 1pm Eastern. My picks:

• Detroit Lions beat Green Bay Packers
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Dallas Cowboys
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Chicago Bears beat Philadelphia Eagles*
• San Francisco 49ers beat Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Tennessee Titans
• Indianapolis Colts beat Houston Texans
• Miami Dolphins beat New Orleans Saints
• Atlanta Falcons beat New York Jets
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Los Angeles Rams beat Carolina Panthers
• Seattle Seahawks beat Minnesota Vikings
• Buffalo Bills beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Denver Broncos beat Washington Commanders
• New England Patriots beat New York Giants

"Upset" picks --  predicted outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks -- are marked with asterisks. If I change any picks, I will do so before the games in question kick off and clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

NFL Week 12 Results

Nine right, five wrong for the week. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red. I'm in the 76.1st percentile among players in ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em Game.

• Buffalo Bills beat Houston Texans
• Chicago Bears beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• New England Patriots beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Detroit Lions beat New York Giants
• Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers*
• Seattle Seahawks beat Tennessee Titans
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Indianapolis Colts
• Baltimore Ravens beat New York Jets
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Arizona Cardinals
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Los Angeles Rams*
• San Francisco 49ers beat Carolina Panthers

NFL Week 12 Picks

Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off tonight as the Buffalo Bills presumably wallop the Houston Texans. My picks:

• Buffalo Bills beat Houston Texans
• Chicago Bears beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• New England Patriots beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Detroit Lions beat New York Giants
• Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers*
• Seattle Seahawks beat Tennessee Titans
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Indianapolis Colts
• Baltimore Ravens beat New York Jets
• Las Vegas Raiders beat Cleveland Browns
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Arizona Cardinals
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Los Angeles Rams*
• San Francisco 49ers beat Carolina Panthers

"Upset" picks --  predicted outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks -- are marked with asterisks. If I change any picks, I will do so before the games in question kick off and clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

NFL Week 11 Results

Not a bad week -- 11 right, four wrong. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red. I'm in the 76.3rd percentile among players in ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em Game.

• New England Patriots beat New York Jets

• Miami Dolphins beat Washington Commanders

• Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Buffalo Bills*

• Houston Texans beat Tennessee Titans

• Chicago Bears beat Minnesota Vikings*

• Green Bay Packers beat New York Giants

• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cincinnati Bengals

• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Los Angeles Chargers*

• Los Angeles Rams beat Seattle Seahawks

• San Francisco 49ers beat Arizona Cardinals

• Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns

• Kansas City Chiefs beat Denver Broncos

• Detroit Lions beat Philadelphia Eagles

• Dallas Cowboys beat Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs' loss to the Broncos was disappoint, but not terribly surprising.

NFL Week 11 Picks

Week 11 of the NFL season starts tonight when the Jets and Patriots face off. My picks:

• New England Patriots beat New York Jets
• Miami Dolphins beat Washington Commanders
• Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Buffalo Bills*
• Houston Texans beat Tennessee Titans
• Chicago Bears beat Minnesota Vikings*
• Green Bay Packers beat New York Giants
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• Los Angeles Rams beat Seattle Seahawks
• San Francisco 49ers beat Arizona Cardinals
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Denver Broncos
• Detroit Lions beat Philadelphia Eagles
• Dallas Cowboys beat Las Vegas Raiders

"Upset" picks --  predicted outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks -- are marked with asterisks. If I change any picks, I will do so before the games in question kick off and clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

NFL Week 10 Results

I usually try to get these out on Tuesday mornings, but it's been a busy week. This week I went 9-5 as follows (correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red), and am in the 74.2nd percentile among players in ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em Game.

• Denver Broncos beat Las Vegas Raiders

• Indianapolis Colts beat Atlanta Falcons

• Chicago Bears beat New York Giants

• Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins

• Baltimore Ravens beat Minnesota Vikings

• Cleveland Browns beat New York Jets

• New England Patriots beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*

• Carolina Panthers beat New Orleans Saints

• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans

• Seattle Seahawks beat Arizona Cardinals

• San Francisco 49ers beat Los Angeles Rams*

• Detroit Lions beat Washington Commanders

• Los Angeles Chargers beat Pittsburgh Steelers

• Philadelphia Eagles beat Green Bay Packers

The Chiefs had a bye week and I didn't bother watching a game.

NFL Week 10 Picks

Week 10 of the NFL season starts tonight with the Las Vegas Raiders playing the Denver Broncos. My picks:

• Denver Broncos beat Las Vegas Raiders

• Indianapolis Colts beat Atlanta Falcons

• Chicago Bears beat New York Giants

• Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins

• Baltimore Ravens beat Minnesota Vikings

• Cleveland Browns beat New York Jets

• New England Patriots beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*

• Carolina Panthers beat New Orleans Saints

• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans

• Seattle Seahawks beat Arizona Cardinals

• San Francisco 49ers beat Los Angeles Rams*

• Detroit Lions beat Washington Commanders

• Los Angeles Chargers beat Pittsburgh Steelers

• Philadelphia Eagles beat Green Bay Packers

"Upset" picks --  predicted outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks -- are marked with asterisks. If I change any picks, I will do so before the games in question kick off and clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

NFL Week 9 Results

This week I picked nine games correctly and five incorrectly, moving up to the 72.1st percentile among players of ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em Game. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red:

• Baltimore Ravens beat Miami Dolphins
• Chicago Bears beat Cincinnati Bengals*
• Detroit Lions beat Minnesota Vikings
• Green Bay Packers beat Carolina Panthers
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Tennessee Titans
• New England Patriots beat Atlanta Falcons
• San Francisco 49ers beat New York Giants
• Indianapolis Colts beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• Denver Broncos beat Houston Texans
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams beat New Orleans Saints
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Buffalo Bills*
• Seattle Seahawks beat Washington Commanders
• Dallas Cowboys beat Arizona Cardinals

The Chiefs' loss to the Bills was disappointing, but not unexpected. As far as the claims that there's some dark officiating conspiracy to benefit the Chiefs, I only saw one really bad call in the game, and its badness was in the NFL rules, not in the officiating itself:

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes drew a flag/penalty for intentional grounding, when what actually happened was that the ball got tipped in the air by a Bills player. It wasn't so visually obvious that the refs couldn't be forgiven for not seeing it. The Chiefs threw a challenge flag, but that particular type of call was not reviewable on replay under NFL rules, so the penalty stood.

It may or may not have changed the game's outcome. Coming into this game, the Bills had been beating the Chiefs 57% of the time when the game was in Buffalo, so like I said, not unexpected.