But the last few games, it becomes a matter of "are the teams who've already secured playoff berths going to bench some of their big guys rather than risk injury" and "are the teams who have no shot at the playoffs going to do the same so that they don't have key players out for the beginning of next season?"
I mostly just treat all that as an unpredictable wash. The only thing I've been seeing to make me reconsider any game is an actual injury situation -- it looks like Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins won't be playing this weekend. Not due to concussion, thank God. Some kind of hip issue.
This is a must-win game for the Dolphins if they want to make the playoffs -- versus the Jets, who are completely out of contention. I'm tempted to switch my pick, but I'm not going to. I think Tyler Huntley will do a credible job for the Dolphins. The Jets, having long since fallen off the end of the season's rope, could be a threat because they might be trying out some new guys, etc. for a game that makes no difference to them, but there's no way to predict whether new things will work for them. So I'm sticking to it.
Ditto the Chiefs, who probably won't be putting in Mahomes and some other important players as they try to stretch out rest periods for their key playoff guys, having already secured first seed (which includes a bye week and home field advantage). Not because I don't think Carson Wentz and friends will do a good job (I'm sure they will), but because I don't not pick the Chiefs to win, ever. The Broncos may well beat them (and, like the Dolphins, must win for any playoff shot), but I'm not going to predict that. It's a religious thing.
