Monday, September 16, 2024

Election 2024: Assassination Attempts and the Art of Motorcycle Riding

You knew I was going to go there sooner or later, right?

So, a second (supposedly -- my guess is there have been a lot more that never got quite so far and/or never got publicly divulged) assassination attempt on disgraced former president Donald Trump.

And a second decision on the part of Republicans -- excepting, briefly, Trump himself the first time -- to lean into the "this is all the Democrats' fault" curve direction in search of sympathy, rather than counter-leaning toward the middle of the "civility" / "can't we all get along" road and letting the sympathy generate itself.

Explanatory video for those who don't instantly grasp the first of two motorcycle metaphors in this post (and if you find motorcycles even the tiniest bit interesting, I recommend all the content you'll find on the FortNine Youtube channel):


I get it: MAGA World is in full-on, bug-eyed, squat-and-pee panic because Kamala Harris hasn't crashed and burned ... yet. They see her pulling ahead, they're looking for an inside track to catch up, and it just feels correct to lean that bike over into the "screech about how mean the Democrats are" curve, twist the throttle to all the way back, and pray.

But it's a bad idea. It's inherently unstable, more likely to result in a crash, and extremely unlikely to generate the desired for sympathy from voters (quantified by gaining on Harris in the polls).

Cold comfort as it may be, there's another motorcycle metaphor -- or at least maxim -- applicable to this situation:

"Ride your own ride."

In the motorcycle world, that tends to apply to group rides, peer pressure, and trying to keep up with your friends, but it's just good general advice on and off of a motorcycle.

You got your motorcycle license last week and bought a Honda Grom.

Your best friend has been on motorcycles since he was five years old and rides a Suzuki GSX1300R Hayabusa.

You are not going to ride as well, or as fast, as your friend. If you try, there's a very good chance you will damage your bike, your body, or both.

That doesn't mean you can't get from Gainesville, Florida to Tallahassee faster than he does.

He might get pulled over for doing 140 miles per hour on I-75/I-10. Or get caught in one of that freeway's hours-long "OK, it's a parking lot" situations. Or just get distracted and plow into the back of some poor snowbird's RV.

If you try to take that Grom down I-75/I-10, you might end up under an 18-wheeler because you're lugging along at 55 miles per hour on a road where most people are doing at least 80 if they're moving at all. What you won't do is ride faster than your friend. His bike is more powerful than yours and he knows how to ride it better than you know how to ride yours.

You're better off hopping on non-freeway US 27, hopefully keeping up with traffic, and seeing if you can make the 143-mile trip safely, and maybe, just maybe, faster than your friend can cover 150 miles on I-75 and I-10.

You probably can't, but that's your best chance.

Ride. Your. Own. Ride.

As with the Grom v. Hayabusa ride, the Trump campaign's best ride strategy is plugging along on whatever pluses it can generate, while hoping that the Harris campaign suffers some kind of epic flame-out of its own instead of making itself look ridiculous, and possibly getting itself badly injured, in an attempt to catch up to and pass a currently more powerful vehicle on a more dangerous road.

Wordle 1185 Hint

Hint: Want some of today's Wordle? Get thee to an apiary!

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: H

Sunday, September 15, 2024

Wordle 1184 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle will probably show up again periodically.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: R

Saturday, September 14, 2024

Wordle 1183 Hint

Hint: The definition of today's Wordle isn't narrow.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: B

Friday, September 13, 2024

Wordle 1182 Hint

Hint: The world may or may not be cruel, but today's Wordle certainly is.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: H

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Cruise Control? No.

You can probably guess why: One of those "throttle lock cruise control" mechanisms would be suicidal on a continuous variable transmission bike. On a standard transmission motorcycle, if you suddenly realize you need to reduce speed you can just pull in on the clutch grip. On the Italica Bulldog 150, if the throttle is back there's power going to the wheels.

BUT!

For $2.99, I can't resist trying this (not an affiliate link). It's in my Amazon shopping cart and will head my way the next time I have enough in that cart to justify actually placing an order.


It just slips around the throttle grip. You still add/subtract throttle by twisting your wrist on way or the other. No difference there. But your palm does the work so you don't get cramped arthritic fingers.

Yes, I'm buying the $2.99 version.

In yellow, naturally, to go with Olivia D's fairings (I'm also slowly building a collection of inexpensive black and yellow clothing to ride in, and of course I still have the cheap Kill Bill / "Bruce Lee" yellow track suit with black piping I bought last December for winter scooter riding).

Yes, it is probably crap that won't last a long time.

If I don't like it, I've only wasted $2.99.

If I do like it, I'll eventually buy a more expensive, and presumably more robust, version when the El Cheapo product breaks or stops being rigid enough to remain responsive.

I resisted the urge to ride today and see if I feel like that plug/coil replacement improved anything, both because the weather is less than wonderful and because I had work to do. But tomorrow is my "day off."

Week 2 NFL Picks

I almost forgot that the football week starts on Thursday night! If you'd like to put your picks up against mine for bragging rights, here's an invite link to ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. My Week 2 predictions:
  • Miami Dolphins beat Buffalo Bills
  • Dallas Cowboys beat New Orleans Saints
  • Detroit Lions beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  • Green Bay Packers beat Indianapolis Colts*
  • New York Jets beat Tennessee Titans
  • San Francisco 49ers beat Minnesota Vikings
  • Seattle Seahawks beat New England Patriots
  • New York Jets beat Washington Commanders*
  • Los Angeles Chargers beat Carolina Panthers
  • Jacksonville Jaguars beat Cleveland Browns
  • Baltimore Ravens beat Las Vegas Raiders
  • Los Angeles Rams beat Arizona Cardinals
  • Pittsburgh Steelers beat Denver Broncos
  • Kansas City Chiefs beat Cincinnati Bengals
  • Chicago Bears beat Houston Texans*
  • Philadelphia Eagles beat Atlanta Falcons
"Upset" picks are noted with a *.

Wordle 1181 Hint

Hint: Several of us who solved today's Wordle already are blowing our own horns. Perhaps we should just join an orchestra together.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: B

Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Tonight Reminds Me ...

... of why I seriously considered buying, and perhaps should have bought, that "cafe cruiser" on Amazon instead of the Italica Bulldog 150:

Because it's pretty naked.

Not porn-type naked. I like motorcycles, but I don't want to have sex with them.

Naked as in "without a bunch of fairings."

I changed out the stock plug and coil this evening: A five-minute job that only ended up taking oh, two hours or more.

Really, changing a plug and coil just amounts to:
  1. Detaching one end of the coil/wire from the plug, unscrewing/removing the plug, and screwing the new plug in (after making sure it's correctly gapped and putting some anti-seize lube on the threads);
  2. Detaching the other end of the coil/wire from the ignition wiring;
  3. Plugging the new coil into the ignition wiring and attaching it to the plug.
Oh, and one more thing:

Getting to the plug and coil/ignition wiring junction.

Which, in the case of the Italica Bulldog 150, required removal of the left side fairing, the handy-dandy built-in storage compartment, and the vented piece separating the storage box from the engine compartment. With some of the screws and bolts holding all that stuff in located under, or blocked by, other stuff.

And then putting all that stuff back on.

Because there doesn't appear to be a Haines Manual, etc. for this specific model, I had to play detective, and followed a few false clues at first, adding to the time. I also broke a U-Bolt that's one of four bolts holding the storage box in place. It's not strictly necessary to have that, but I'll probably pick one up some time. Oh, and I forgot to put in one fairing screw before putting the storage box in, making the relevant area inaccessible. I'll put that screw back in the next time I have the storage box out for something else, like re-jetting or replacing the carburetor.

Too early to tell whether the better plug and coil make any material difference. Maybe I'll see slightly better mileage. Maybe I'll see ever so slightly more power/speed. Maybe I'll have just wasted my time (except that I did learn a few things!). Anecdotally, she sounded ... happier ... when I took her out for a quick two-mile run afterward.

Anyway, with "naked" bikes, everything is pretty much just hanging out there in the air, making it easy to remove/replace/adjust parts. And they're just as cool-looking in their own way. 

But I still love my Bulldog. Her name, by the way, is Olivia D. Can anyone guess why? Looking at her might help:





Election 2024: Turnout Is Key, TayTay & Trav Edition

I've seen a few people online poo-pooing the possibility that Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris could be decisive in the presidential election.

I'm not sure they're right, but they might be. The last two presidential elections have been decided by a few tens of thousands of votes in a few states, and Swift just may be the single most popular person on the planet. There's at least a possibility that, say, 100,000 Swifties who weren't really thinking that hard about voting, or about whom to vote, will 1) decide to vote and 2) decide to vote for Swift's endorsed candidate.

But I suspect more votes will be driven by the MAGA response to the endorsement than by the endorsement itself. "I'm pissed off" is a bigger political motivator than "oh, how sweet."

Trump says he likes Brittany Mahomes, wife of Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, better than he likes Swift. Which is kind of ... weird ... but actually gets us closer to where I'm going.

Trump supporter Elon Musk's reaction to the endorsement was an offer to, um, "assist" Swift in ceasing to be childless.

That's pretty creepy in general, but wait! There's more!

Swift's beau (for nigh on a year now) is Patrick Mahomes's teammate and big-time bromantic partner, Travis Kelce. All four of them seem to be pretty tight with each other.

I'm just guessing, but I suspect Kelce, who's not known for holding back in the opinion arena any more than he does at Arrowhead Stadium, might have some thoughts on the subject of Musk's oh-so-generous offer.

I also suspect that we may be hearing from Brittany, Real Soon Now, that she's reconsidered her opinion on the presidential race.

And I suspect that Chiefs Kingdom in particular and NFL fandom in general won't take very kindly to Trump putting Brittany Mahomes in that kind of position, or to Elon Musk disrespecting the manhood of the greatest tight end in the history of the NFL.

That angle could also motivate at least a few tens of thousands of previously apathetic football fans to go from "politics, meh" to "yeah, I'm voting, and it won't be for that guy."

I could be wrong ... but at the moment, the election really does look close enough that things like these could really affect the outcome, with everything already going Harris's way.

Here's the current situation:

Harris has moved into the driver's seat. It is within her ability to win this election. All she has to do to win is work her ass off for the next 55 days and not commit any truly massive f*ckups.

Whether she can do that or not is still in question ... but what's not in question is Trump's ability to change the outcome for, from his point of view, the better. He has no such ability. He can make things worse for himself, but he can't make things better. If he wins it will be because Harris derailed herself, not because he derailed her.

Ah, Some Data ... And Better Results than Expected

Contrary to my prediction in a previous post, the Italica Bulldog didn't get 60-70 miles per gallon in its first "fuel up, read odometer, ride, fuel up again, read odometer again, do the math" check.

It got 72 miles per gallon!

That's based on only about 60 miles of travel, but I suspect the travel produced a fair average. It included "at the limit of its power on the highway," "wondering if that f**cking light is ever going to turn green," and pretty much everything in between.

And I suspect the mileage will improve as I mod the bike.

For example, if the stock plug and coil are kinda crap (likely), and the new NGK iridium spark plug and Nibbi coil I have sitting on my desk right now are substantially better (also likely), well, better spark = more complete consumption and of, and less wasted, fuel in the cylinder = less fuel needed to produce the same amount of power output from the engine.

I'm also now reasonably sure that the tank holds 1.3 gallons, not the 0.9 gallons some sites say -- I got 0.817 gallons into the tank today, and it did not look all but empty on pre-fill visual inspection.

So, 1.3 gallons @ 72 miles per gallon = 93.6 mile range. I will plan any long trips around refueling every 80 miles or so (with my 750ml fuel bottle kept full in case I take a wrong turn, a station I expected to be open isn't, etc.).

One Of My Rare Uses of Fox "News" For Evaluating A Political Event

No, I did not watch the Trump/Harris debate last night.

Yes, at some point I will probably read a transcript and watch some additional highlight reels.

But my first stop was Fox:


Why? Because in a sea of mainstream media "Harris won" stories, I wanted a bit of bias correction.

My very first impression:

Harris looked younger than her 59 years. She looked relaxed but prepared and put together. In the short sound clips, ditto.

Trump didn't just look older than his 78 years, he looked older than Joe Biden's 81, and like someone forgot to have his suit pressed and did a bad job of freshening up his spray tan right before he walked on stage. He looked tense and beset. In the short sound clips, ditto.

Notice I didn't mention any policy points. "Conservative commentator" Kendall Bailey didn't do very well trying to make Trump sound like the "winner" on those, either, but she may just not be very good at her job (I'm not familiar with her).

For a lot of voters, and not just those already leaning hard one way or the other, the first visual/aural impression is going to be impactful, maybe even decisive, before "the issues" even come into play.

More later. Probably.

Pro Tip: If You're Going To Lie About Someone, Don't Link To the Evidence That You're Lying About Him

Jeffrey A. Tucker:

[Chase Oliver] defended and pushed for vaccine mandates for business

The content of that link, for your convenience:

I agree with Tucker that some in the libertarian movement, and the leadership of the Libertarian Party in particular were, at best, cowering and weak-kneed in their response to the COVID-19 variants of authoritarian cultism. Oliver may, in some ways, even resemble that remark.

On the other hand, Tucker and his Brownstone Institute, having milked the COVID-19 cow relentlessly for four years now, seem to want to retroactively blame libertarianism itself for their own inability to move on to new attention/profit centers now that Bossie's udder has pretty much run dry.

Wordle 1180 Hint

Hint: Congressional Republicans and Democrats don't actually disagree on nearly as much as they pretend to, but today's Wordle really does separate them.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: A

Tuesday, September 10, 2024

Video Fail #2

I took a second run at producing a "ride video" of the Bulldog 150. No dice. It didn't go terribly at first (bike walkaround, etc.), but even with my modular helmet in "fully uncovered face" position, the combination of engine and wind noise just destroyed the audio once I started toodling along, and since the ride itself was ... well, not pedestrian, I was riding, but just normal ... it's pretty worthless without legible audio. If I want to do better, I'm going to have to invest in gear (helmet cam with inside the helmet mic?) instead of just recording with my phone on a chest harness.

I doubt I'll ever be able to offer content on anything like the same level as Ryan FortNine or Yammie Noob or I Fix Shet, but I do hope to eventually get competent enough to do fun ride/review videos and maybe some "here's me installing the new part"/"here's me fixing something that broke" tutorials focused on Chinese scooters, cheap motorcycles, etc. Especially if I can get people to loan me Chinese scooters, cheap motorcycles, etc. to provide some variety. We'll see.

Week 1 NFL Results

Not a bad first week at picking game outcomes -- I went 14-2 in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. Correct picks in green, incorrect picks in red:

  • Kansas City Chiefs beat Baltimore Ravens
  • Philadelphia Eagles beat Greeen Bay Packers
  • Pittsburgh Steelers beat Atlanta Falcons
  • Buffalo Bills beat Arizona Cardinals
  • Chicago Bears beat Tennessee Titans
  • Cincinnati Bengals beat New England Patriots
  • Houston Texans beat Indianapolis Colts
  • Miami Dolphins beat Jacksonville Jaguars
  • New Orleans Saints beat Carolina Panthers
  • Minnesota Vikings beat New York Giants
  • Las Vegas Raiders beat Los Angeles Chargers
  • Seattle Seahawks beat Denver Broncos
  • Dallas Cowboys beat Cleveland Browns
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Washington Commanders
  • Detroit Lions beat Los Angeles Rams
  • San Franciscon 49ers beat New York Jets

After 1 week, I am in the 97.7th percentile and ranked 19,564th from among ??? players.

Thoughts:

Of the two picks I missed, one (Raiders vs. Chargers) was an "upset" pick -- only 22% of players, including me, thought the Raiders would pull it off. On the other hand, 97% of players picked the Bengals to take down the Patriots, so I was definitely among the surprised.

I also was among the 26% of those who correctly picked the Steelers to beat the Falcons.

I only watched two games -- Chiefs vs. Ravens (of course), and Dolphins vs. Jaguars (I just happened across it while Roku-surfing). I had the Dolphins to win, but it was a close thing (20-17, with the Dolphins kicking the winning field goal at the buzzer), and the Jaguars are definitely looking like AFC contenders again.

Back with my Week 2 picks no later than Thursday, and this time I'll try to remember the asterisk next to "upset" picks.

The Italica Bulldog 150 Manifests Its First Malfunction

Yesterday in the late afternoon/early evening, I took the motorcycle out for another ride -- into town and back out, just to enjoy the day and develop my "driving in traffic" skills (my return home was during the typical rush hour period and along a typical rush hour route).

A couple of miles from home I started noticing an intermittent metallic sound, not unlike a tin can being kicked or dragged down the road. It didn't sound internal to the engine, but it was coming from that general area. I was in the "lots of cars moving fast" part of the trip rather than the "lots of cars in start-and-stop" part of the ride, and only a few minutes from home, so I chose to just get home rather than stop to investigate.

As soon as I stepped off the bike and went to put the kick stand down, I thought I could see the problem, and I was right: The spring that holds the center stand up was gone -- either broken or just slipped off somehow. The stand was falling and scraping the pavement, presumably when I'd hit a little bump; the next bump probably knocked it back upward, ending the metallic dragging sound until another bump.

I zip-tied the stand in the "up" position. I'll either get a new spring, or remove the stand entirely (it has its uses, one of which is positioning the bike for an accurate check of the oil level, but it's not strictly necessary and adds weight).

While I was zip-tying it up, I noticed that a small, capped tube/hose coming off the air filter box was loose and floppy, so I zip-tied that in place as well. Not sure what purpose that tube/hose really serves. The old 50cc had one as well, and of course I pulled its air filter box off and replaced the whole apparatus with a cone filter, which I intend to do on this bike as well ... soon. But that modification comes after installing the NGK iridium spark plug and Nibbi performance coil, both of which should arrive today.

In a rare instance of foresight on my part, I ordered a big box of zip-ties during the period when I was shopping for motorcycle gear/accessories, assuming that I'd need some. Once I have the fairings off to do stuff inside the engine compartment, I plan to attend to any wiring/cabling that isn't snug and secure.

Update: I've added a selection of center stand springs, among other motorcycle stuff that I haven't bought yet, to my Amazon Wish List. After the layout for the motorcycle, taxes, tags, full-face helmet, etc., I'm watching my wallet at the moment. I'll get to this stuff eventually ... unless others decide to get to it for me first.

Wordle 1179 Hint

Hint: Jim Stark, sans a cause.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: R

Monday, September 09, 2024

270 To Win, Part 2

Initial maintenance for two-wheeled motor vehicles: Oil and gear oil change at 300 miles.

I took the Italica Bulldog 150 in to Campus Scooters today for that ... at 270 miles (OK, 271, but that was after showing up, finding out it would be most of an hour until it could get in, and riding a short distance for lunch, then returning). For all intents and purposes, I consider anything between 260 and 280 to be 270 when it comes to maintenance mileage.

Why 30 miles early? Because Mondays are less busy for me than other weekdays (as you can tell by the inflated post count today). I write Garrison Center columns on Tuesdays and Thursdays, there's usually more RRND content to comb through/curate on Tuesdays through Thursdays than on Mondays, and I figure Fridays are busy at the scooter shop (they're closed on Saturday and Sunday).

They didn't spot any red flags. The ride home went fine. Mission accomplished.

I intended to ask several questions, but only remembered to get one of them in:

A number of people -- including my mechanic friend -- tell me that I should run premium gasoline in the machine.

A few YouTubers who are "scooter-focused" say no, in a Chinese scooter it's more important to run ethanol-free gasoline than it is to run high-octane gasoline.

The lady at the shop: If it's a "daily rider" vehicle, go with high-octane (which is what I've been doing, btw). Ethanol isn't great for carburetors, but it's only really bad for them if it's the kind of vehicle that sits for long periods.

So, I'll stick with high-octane. But I may look into some of the fuel treatments intended specifically to save engines from the ill effects of ethanol.

270 To Win, Part 1

This post (part 1) is about the upcoming presidential election. Part 2 is not.

Here's the current "2024 Consensus" map from 270 To Win:



There are other maps available at the site, (see the "map library" dropdown on the right side) ... only one of which comes up with a winner (that is, a candidate with 270 or more electoral votes). Polymarket (a prediction market site) has Trump at 287 electoral votes to Harris's 251, but even there 41 of those electoral votes are in mere "tilts" status (as opposed to the increasingly stronger "leans," "likely," or "safe"), and Harris has more "safe" states than Trump.

See why this year is especially hard for a would-be predictor?

I don't have to make my final prediction yet. I'm glad I don't have to make my final prediction yet. With 93 electoral votes in "toss-up" (per the "consensus" map), it's still anyone's ball game.

There Can Be Many Reasons For A Thing

John Cleese:


A bunch of other people (paraphrased):

OMG U USED TO BE SO BASED AND NOW UR SO WOKE AND WHY OH WHY R U BREAKING UP WITH ELON MUSK OVER POLITICS!?!

So far as I can tell (that is, on the basis of some quick web searching), Cleese hasn't specified why he's leaving Twitter ... or even if he is actually doing so. Maybe the post is just a belated notice of it now being called "X" by 1) Musk and 2) maybe one half of one percent of its users.

Let's assume, for the moment, that he plans to shut down his account and cease posting, re-tweeting, replying, etc.

Maybe he's decided Twitter just takes up too much of his time and that he'd rather spend his golden years doing other things without the distraction.

Maybe he's moving on to "compensated influencer" status on some other (new or existing) platform,  with this post as the amuse-bouche and a reveal yet to come.

Maybe he's moving to, or visiting, Brazil.

Maybe someone turned him into a  newt, and he hasn't yet got better.

The man is quite capable of making a forceful public political statement when he wants to. He hasn't, so why jump to conclusions?





I Can't Imagine The Italica Bulldog 150 (and Analogs) Won't Be a Hit

At the web sites of various Florida scooter shops, I see the Italica Bulldog 150 listed at prices ranging from ~$1,800 to ~$2,200 (interestingly, one shop wants $300 more for the version with yellow fairings like mine than for other colors even though the only obvious difference is the color of those fairings). So far as I can tell, it's a very new product line, at least in the US.

That pricing is comparable with the Honda Navi, of which the Bulldog is a fairly obvious "clone."




BUT!

The Bulldog has an ABS disc brake on the front wheel (drum on the rear), while the Navi runs drum brakes front and rear. That's safer.

AND!

The Bulldog boasts a larger engine (150cc vs. 109cc), although it claims the same top speed (55mph) stock. Both bikes can be modified for increased speed, of course, but more displacement means more potential to work with.

AND!

I intended to buy a 2023 Navi -- "new old stock" -- at my local Honda dealership. It was on sale for $1,396. It was gone when I got there, but the sales guy assured me they could find another for "about the same price" ... "$3,000 or so out the door."

Because, see, "dealer fees" and "freight charges" aren't included in the listed price. Title/tags aren't either, but that's understandable. The "dealer fee" / "freight charges" thing is a bait and switch. They advertise price X, but when you get there the real price is approximately X*2.

The scooter dealer I work with (Campus Scooters of Gainesville, Florida) doesn't charge "dealer fees," and apparently freight is just priced into the list price. I did get a $200 "return customer" discount, but my price "out the door" -- scooter, title, tags -- came to less than $2,200. I'm under the impression that most scooter shops are more honest with their pricing than traditional motorcycle (or car) dealerships.

So if "something like the Navi" is what you're interested in, but you're not made of money, the Bulldog is probably the better deal.

FINAL AND!

Italica is a scooter company and moves its product through scooter dealerships.

The primary market for scooters, at least in college towns, is college students who need something to get around campus and nearby areas on.

Lots of people love the little "euro-style" scooters modeled on the Italian Vespa. I love them myself. I've got one.

But let's think about the student market segment for a moment.

More than 40% of undergratuate college students are male. 

And 40% of all college undergrads are 18-20 years old.

That has implications.

You're an 18-year-old male and an incoming college freshman.

You arrive on campus, with Mom and Dad there to help you move into the dorm. They notice all those scooters whizzing around town and say "hey, we should get you something like that so you don't have to walk to class and Uber to the grocery store" (the bar scene is likely left unmentioned). "Let's hit one of the local scooter shops and get you set up!"

So, do you want a low-riding, big-rear-fender, baby blue euro-style scooter?

Or do you want the high-riding "motorcycle" with bold, sexy fairing colors ... in the same price range, and featuring a top speed that doesn't give Mom the vapors?

I'm not in the "college student who needs to get around in a three-mile radius" market. But the Bulldog does serve that market segment about as well as the more sedate "scooter" market, and it does so more in The Wild One style than in Roman Holiday style.

Yes, your average 18-year-old male can pick up chicks on the Vespa clone. But he probably at least thinks he can pick up wilder chicks on the Navi clone.

I'm pretty sure the Bulldog is a "new" bike, at least in the US market (since it's a Florida-company "rebrand" of a Chinese bike made by Zhilong, it will presumably be sold under other make/model names -- I'm pretty sure it's a US "upgrade" of the Italika BiT 150 sold in Mexico for at least a couple of years now).

I'm not seeing much out there about it, but I'm expecting to start seeing a lot about it. It's a great platform for testesterone-heavy college kids, and for entry-level motorcyclists, and for "modify Chinese scooters/motorcycles" hobbyists.

Wordle 1178 Hint

Hint: You may solve today's Wordle, but you won't get credit for it.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: D

Sunday, September 08, 2024

Looks Like a Pretty Cool Site/App for Drivers (and Motorcyclists)

I registered with Fuelly (not an affiliate link) and installed the aCar app (not an affiliate link) on my Android phone this morning. There's also a Fuelly app called Gas Tracker for the iPhone (not an affiliate link and I have no idea if it's as cool as aCar).

The most basic feature is that you can log your gas fill-ups and odometer readings and get a nice continuous estimate of mileage/costs.

It also lets you log vehicle notes such as service/mileage (e.g. oil changes/mileages).

There are free versions of the apps, as well as paid subscriptions with added features like more advanced statistics and the ability to import/export data to various places and in various formats.

After installing the app, I ran the bike out and filled it to the brim (0.638 gallons got it there, and it seems to have been about half full, so I think maybe the 1.3 gallon tank size advertised at some sites is correct, rather than the 0.9 gallon size advertised at others). And when I do that again, I won't have to remember where I put a little scrap of paper with my previous odometer reading -- it will just give me a mileage calculation.

Since there's a little tick-box for "not a complete fill-up," I suspect that it will be able to update the mileage calculation the next time I actually fill it up, too. But I'm not going to go with my suspicion. Next time I get gas, it will again be to the brim.

Remember All Those Times I've Said "Turnout Is The Key?"

I'll say it again: Turnout is the key.

Let's look at some "swing state" polling, courtesy of 538:

  • In Arizona, Trump is up on Harris ... by 0.4%, 46% to 45.6%.
  • In Georgia, Harris is up on Trump ... by 0.4%, 46.5% to 46.1%.
  • In Michigan, Harris has the edge again ... by 2.1%, 46.6% to 44.5%.
  • In Nevada, same ... by 0.6%, with Harris at 45.9% and Trump at 45.3%.
  • In North Carolina, Trump has a 0.6% lead on Harris, 46.5% to 45.9%.
  • Pennsylvania? A 0.7% differential, Harris ahead of Trump 46.% to 45.5.
  • Wisconsin is the "swing" state where someone has the biggest lead, a whopping three points -- Harris 47.6%, Trump 44.6%.
That's all "margin of error" territory.

Normally, by this point in the election cycle, I'd be nearly ready to issue my final state-by-state predictions.

Perhaps we'll see some kind of breakout if one candidate or the other really brings it home, or really shits the bed, versus the other at the debate on Tuesday.

But even if we do, turnout will remain the key.

At the moment, I think Harris has the edge on that.

Trump's supporters don't seem nearly as enthused as they were eight, or even four, years ago. Hell, two months ago. He managed to erase the "look, 'they' tried to assassinate me" adulation effect by going right back to acting crazier than a shithouse rat in public.

Harris's post-Biden-dropout honeymoon with the Democratic base doesn't seem to have collapsed into yelling, throwing things, and consulting divorce lawyers. Part of that is that she's been very limited/curated in her engagement with the media. I don't know if that can last much longer, but if it does she will probably win.

Right now, the Republicans seem to be focused on 1) trying to get RFK Jr. off the ballot in close states (to boost GOP turnout), and 2) trying to get referendums about e.g. abortion off of state ballots (to suppress Democratic turnout). It's not yet clear how much of that will "work," either in getting it done or having the desired effect. If it does, Trump might manage a photo finish win.

It's far less about how many people support them than it is about how many people support them enthusiastically enough to actually cast a ballot.

Wordle 1177 Hint

Hint: Illustrated, haggard, or pulled along.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: D

Saturday, September 07, 2024

Yep, Still Riding

Put another 50 miles or so on the Italica Bulldog 150 today -- it's past 220 miles on its odometer so I should be ready for the initial 300-mile maintenance early in the week.

Today's two rides were over territory I knew well, unlike yesterday's. Which reminded me:

I'm probably going to want one of those Bluetooth headsets made for motorcycle helmets.

I keep my phone mounted on the bike's left handlebar (and I need a better holder for it -- I went cheap, and that was a mistake), and keep it plugged in to the vehicle's USB port when riding.

That's mainly been nice for being able to use a GPS speedometer app to find out how fast I'm actually going versus what the typically "generous" bike speedometer says.

But yesterday I used it for navigation, and it's really hard to hear instructions when zooming along at 50 miles per hour with a full-face helmet on.

I personally wouldn't use something like that to take phone calls or whatever while riding. I'm hoping I never get to a point where my full attention isn't on the environment around me and keeping the bike under control. But when I start going further abroad and to places I'm unfamiliar with, I'll want that navigation assistance and I'll want to be able to hear it.

Wordle 1176 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle didn't lease, he bought.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: O

Friday, September 06, 2024

Second Impressions of the Italica Bulldog 150

Today, I put about 100 miles on the new Italica Bulldog 150, taking it from around 70 total miles to around 170 total miles.

About 75-80 (I think) of those new miles were "highway" miles, at speeds ranging from 45mph to 57mph (yes, I managed to wring one more mile per hour out of it per GPS speedometer) on US Route 441 from Micanopy to Ocala, US Route 27 from Ocala to Williston, US Route 41 from Williston to Archer, Florida State Road 24 between Archer and Gainesville, etc. So varying types of "highway mile" from "straight, fairly flat four-lane" to "twisty, but still fairly flat because it's Florida, two-lane."

The bike hits its top speed at, to the extent I have time to notice on the tach, below 8,000 RPM. I think more like 7,000, really. I don't think it is RPM restricted -- I was able to "red-line" it on the mechanic's stand, but it never gets up there on the road. Since it's a continuous variable transmission instead of different gears, it doesn't really have a "power band," but the engine seems to feel least "stressed" and most "comfortable" at 45-47mph.

The bike also rides very comfortably, in my opinion. I'm sore all over, but I don't ever recall the ride itself feeling bumpy or painful. I'm pretty sure the soreness is all about using muscles I usually don't have to use. I had a certain amount of that from early/long rides on the 50cc scooter as well. Since this bike sits higher than the little scooter, presumably I'm using different little muscles and muscle groups for things like maintaining balance (and it's been some time since I had ridden the little scooter more than 20 miles or so).

No complaints, but one ... "issue."

I still don't know exactly how big the gas tank is. This page says 1.32 gallons, but I'm skeptical. I've also seen it listed as 0.9 gallons.

This morning, when I started the bike up, the "low fuel" light was blinking, which seems to mean a quarter tank or less. I put in half a gallon, and that did not completely fill it (although the digital gauge read "full," that really just means 3/4 or more, and I'm not sure the gauge is all that reliable).

Then I drove it the 40-odd miles to Ocala and put nearly 3/4 of a gallon in, which did have it pretty much to the brim.

Once my metal 750 milliliter fuel bottle arrives, I plan to make an opportunity to run the thing dry as near as possible to a gas station, fill it to the brim to find out the capacity, write down the odometer reading, then put, say, 50 miles on it under varying conditions and refill it to get a mileage calculation. Off the cuff, I'm guessing somewhere between 60mpg and 70mpg. I expect that to improve with a better plug, coil, etc.

I also wore my new full-face helmet today, after yesterday's "40-50mph in torrential downpour" experience.

On the little 50cc, 35mph in hard rain felt like small children were lining the side of the road to pepper my face with pea-gravel. The higher speed felt more like a platoon of demons firing ball bearings at my face from Uzis (while screaming "YOU'RE GONNA DIE!" because I was also accordioning in speed between a slowing/accelerating 18-wheeler in front of me and a Dodge Ram riding my ass).

The main thing I got out of the "riding in a thunderstorm" experience, other than facial pain, was confidence in the bike and in my basic, but hopefully growing, rider skills. I didn't lay it down, or feel like I was ever close to laying it down. I never felt anything like hydroplaning. I didn't do anything crazy or stupid, but since I don't plan to do anything crazy or stupid under any road conditions, I feel better about inclement weather riding. Which I expected today as well.

So naturally, it didn't rain today while/where I was riding.

The full-face helmet was more comfortable and easier to get used to than I expected. And I did get a visor full of splattered bugs, instead of teeth full of same, while coming up US 27. I think maybe I passed through a swarm of migrating grasshoppers or something.

Also, no matter how tightly I snug the half-helmet, it has a tendency to want to move backward on my head under certain wind/speed conditions, while the full-face was rock solid.

So I guess I'm a full-face helmet guy now.

Writing In Spite of the Boredom/Disgust, But Only to a Point

If you follow this blog, you may have noticed that

  1. After an extreme uptick leading into the 2024 Libertarian National Convention, I opined on the Libertarian Party's internal situation quite a bit; and that
  2. At some point not long after I went silent on the subject.
I had occasion to discuss that situation with reader GregL over lunch the other day, and figured I should probably update the rest of you as to the reasons for my silence.

TL;DR: The sound of the convention's closing gavel hadn't yet finished carrying across the hall before the Libertarian National Committee (and certain state party organizations) had descended back to (and exceeding) the depths of its previous (take your pick of ratios) incompetence/corruption. The result in my attitude was a quick deceleration from interest in fighting it to depression over it to boredom/disgust with it.

Extension of Rant:

Some state affiliates, after accepting representation at the convention, participating in the convention, and thereby obligating themselves to honor the results of the convention, announced that they had no intention of doing so. For example, at least one (Colorado) announced that it would be putting RFK, Jr., rather than party nominee Chase Oliver, on its presidential ballot line.

LNC chair Angela McArdle, as well as an LNC majority, didn't just coddle that behavior. In direct defiance of their bylaws-decreed obligation to support the nominated presidential ticket, they encouraged, and conspired to support that behavior. Not all of them, but most.

One major exception was secretary Caryn Ann Harlos, who submitted the nominated ticket to Colorado's secretary of state. Under Colorado election law, it is either the national chair or national secretary who does that to put the ticket on the ballot.

McArdle's reaction to the secretary doing a job she was both entitled and obligated to do? A temper tantrum about how Ms. Harlos had defied the chair's AUTHORITAH (which wasn't the case, but which would still have been proper had it been the case).

And then Ms. McArdle moved a "hold my beer" motion proposing a "joint fundraising agreement" with RFK's campaign. Under that agreement, people could contribute to the LNC, which would take a commission and then spend the rest of the money ... supporting one of the Libertarian Party's presidential opponents against its own candidate.

The motion passed, and survived an appeal to the Judicial Committee. Since then, ads for Kennedy bearing the notice "paid for by the Libertarian National Committee" have been running.

Now that Kennedy has dropped out of the race and endorsed Donald Trump, ads supporting Trump in "Kennedy's voice" -- and once again bearing the endorsement of the LNC -- are running.

I shit you not.

For a while there, I was fascinated with the continuous train wreck, featuring flatcars loaded with flaming dumpsters, that the LNC/LP has become over the last couple of years. And when I had an opportunity to attend the national convention and try to redeem/repair the party, I did so.

Now I'm just bored and disgusted again.

Maybe I'll get interested again. If so, it will probably be after the rapidly approaching LNC bankruptcy -- a bankruptcy that, in my opinion, has been intentional all along on the part of the Mises PAC and timed for (if possible, to maximize the grift/graft/Republican benefit opportunities) after the November election.

I guess we'll see.

Wordle 1175 Hint

Hint: Hey, Fred ... What's Happening!!

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: R

Thursday, September 05, 2024

Well, I TRIED to Make a Video For You ...

... but I'm just not very good at that. Yet.

My idea was to do a little "speed run," with my phone camera pointing at the speedometer. That did work, after a fashion, but there were two problems:

  1. Sun glare made the speedometer reading invisible at times and nearly invisible when it wasn't invisible; and
  2. Seeing nothing but an unreadable speedometer and road surface under the bike makes for pretty boring video.
A potential third problem was with location. There's a nice, long, straight stretch of road near me, about half a mile, fairly level ... with a 30 mph speed limit that absolutely no one pays any attention to. I've only ever seen one driver adhere to it, and that was me -- back when I rode a bicycle. In fact, the mechanics for miles around come out to test their vehicles on that stretch. I will neither confirm nor deny that I helped someone test a nitrous oxide rig on a performance car on that piece of road one time.

It occurred to me at a certain point that posting actual video of an admitted-on-camera speed limit violation, including a shot of the bike's license plate, might not be the best decision. So I deleted the video, and everyone should assume that I kept my speed to 29 mph.

When I do video of a speed run, I'll do it a few miles away where there's a 60mph zone. I'll also try to work out some kind of more visually appealing videography scheme.

Thirty miles or so on the bike. I plan to hit 300 and get the first oil and gear oil change done next week.

Wordle 1174 Hint

Hint: Having trouble with today's Wordle? Try thinking about it more broadly.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: W

Wednesday, September 04, 2024

Some First Impressions of the Italica Bulldog 150

Very first impressions. I've had the bike for a few hours and have put about 25 miles on it.

Other than a few "look how pretty this bike -- or the model squatting next to the bike in shorts shorts -- is. Stylish!" ads, and a few scooter shop sales pages with minimal information, I couldn't find out much about the bike without getting the bike. So I got the bike.

One concern I had in advance was whether it would have a real fuel gauge. Something called the Italika BiT 150 has been sold in Mexico for some time, it looks like pretty much the same machine, and there are lots of reviews of that. The BiT 150 has a low fuel warning light, but no gas gauge. So I anticipated having to install a gas gauge, and while I was at it, a tachometer.

It has a gas gauge.

And a tachometer.

Speaking of which, it does not appear to be RPM-restricted. While riding, I seldom topped 7,000 RPM, but on the mechanic's stand it was able to spin right up into the red zone.

The listed top speed, where I've found one, is 52-55 mph. Chinese scooter speedometers tend to be "generous," and riding home from the dealership mine read 59 mph. But my handy dandy Android phone GPS speedometer said 56 mph.

I like the way it rides. I like the way the seat feels. I like the way it steers. Hopefully as it breaks in I'll get a wee bit more speed out of it. I don't plan to modify it until after its first (300 mile) motor oil and gear oil change. That's something I'd normally do myself, but I think I'll pay the dealership to do it at least the one time.

The only two things I don't like about the bike so far:

  1. It has a "wind screen" that is 99.9% decorative and that I find unattractive. That will be coming off soon.
  2. The owner's manual seems to be a generic manual for multiple unspecified 150cc scooters. And that's where it makes any sense at all, which is often not the case. It was clearly written by non-English-speakers. It includes nothing in the way of technical specifications.

Look What's In My Yard


Thanks to reader GregL who, among many other things, took me to pick this up after we had lunch at Sam's Club.

The listed top speed is 55 miles per hour. The speedometer, at one point, read 59 mph. My GPS phone speedometer/trip recorder tells me it topped out at 56 mph.

That's prior to any real break-in. It had 2.x miles on it when I picked it up (from the scooter shop testing it, etc.). I rode it to a parking lot, did some figure 8s to work in the tires a little, then drove it straight home (about five miles).

Would I have liked to put about 50 miles on it? Yeah, but it was starting to rain and I had (and still have) work to do. I don't mind riding in the rain, but I'd rather not ride an unfamiliar bike over a long distance in the rain.

Week 1 NFL Picks

Yes, it's that time of year again. Tomorrow night the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs kick off the National Football League's 2024 season. If you'd like to put your picks up against mine for bragging rights, here's an invite link to ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. Without further ado, my Week 1 predictions:

  • Kansas City Chiefs beat Baltimore Ravens
  • Philadelphia Eagles beat Greeen Bay Packers
  • Pittsburgh Steelers beat Atlanta Falcons
  • Buffalo Bills beat Arizona Cardinals
  • Chicago Bears beat Tennessee Titans
  • Cincinnati Bengals beat New England Patriots
  • Houston Texans beat Indianapolis Colts
  • Miami Dolphins beat Jacksonville Jaguars
  • New Orleans Saints beat Carolina Panthers
  • Minnesota Vikings beat New York Giants
  • Las Vegas Raiders beat Los Angeles Chargers
  • Seattle Seahawks beat Denver Broncos
  • Dallas Cowboys beat Cleveland Browns
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Washington Commanders
  • Detroit Lions beat Los Angeles Rams
  • San Franciscon 49ers beat New York Jets
My upset picks are the Steelers to beat the Falcons and the Raiders to beat the Chargers.

Wordle 1173 Hint

Hint: Seeking the answer to today's Wordle, matey? Look aft, not fore.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: S

Tuesday, September 03, 2024

No Joy

OK, well, partial joy.

The most recent word I'd had on the new motorcycle was "Tuesday, late in the day." Where "late in the day" is between 2pm and 3pm (those are their hours).

So I pulled up about 2:15pm.

The bike is there.

The lady who does initial assembly was just starting to uncrate it.

Once she's done assembling it (probably before leaving for the day today), it gets some final set-up -- replacing the shipping oil with good stuff, making sure nothing's loose, test drive, etc.

That's someone else's job, hopefully done tomorrow in time for me to ride it home between the "showers early" and "thunderstorms developing later in the day" portions of the weather forecast.

In the crate, it was still covered with some wrap, didn't yet have its wheels on, etc., but looked very nice. I've not actually seen one of these in the wild yet, only pictures and video until now.

Today, The Bike?

That's what I'm told, anyway -- this afternoon.

I intend to be there an hour before they close (if I haven't heard from them earlier).

Whether I get a good break-in cruise or just ride it home is weather-dependent. I don't want to ride a brand-new bike in heavy rain any more than necessary. Inclement weather riding is an "after I get used to it" thing.

Most of my "universal" accessories are already here. Several "improvement/modification" parts are in my Amazon shopping cart, pending physical confirmation that they're the right ones. I'm assuming the ending is a standard GY6.

First likely modification: NGK iridium spark plug and Nibbi performance coil.

Second likely modification: K&N or Nibbi performance air filter.

Third likely modification, prior to first oil change: Magnetic drain plug -- these engines don't have a real "oil filter," just a mesh screen that you clean out. The magnet is to catch metal shavings that get through the screen.

I could be incorrect, but I'm pretty sure the first oil/gear oil service is "free" with a newly purchased scooter. But unless they use Lucas engine and gear oils, I'll be supplying those even if they do the actual work.

I'll probably wait until I do the performance variator/clutch and CTV weight change, down the road a bit, to get a better belt. No point in tearing the thing open more often than necessary.

Somewhere in there I'll plan on changing out the exhaust for a less restrictive one.

After all that, either up-jet the existing carburetor or install a better one. Or maybe -- probably not, but maybe -- an electronic fuel injection system.

And in between everything, I may add a fuel gauge (hard to tell, but this may be one of those bikes with no fuel gauge, just a "low fuel" warning light) and tachometer, and will probably, at some point, purchase a performance CDI that doesn't restrict RPMs, etc.

I expect to eventually have close to $3,000 in the bike.

I also expect to be able to get a decent price for it when and if I decide it's time for a used Harley Davidson Iron 883, or a Honda Rebel 500, or whatever. Which I think will be at least a couple of years down the road. I'm not in any hurry.

Wordle 1172 Hint

Hint: If today's Wordle was a noise, you'd barely be able to hear it.

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New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: F

Monday, September 02, 2024

Wordle 1171 Hint

Hint: They should have saved today's Wordle to use on Wednesday.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: C

Sunday, September 01, 2024

Thanks For Asking! -- September 2024

Easy peasy: Ask me anything in comments. I answer in comments, or linked from comments.



Wordle 1170 Hint

Hint: Soft and shapeless (or annoyingly romantic).

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the ads below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: M