Remember All Those Times I've Said "Turnout Is The Key?"

I'll say it again: Turnout is the key.

Let's look at some "swing state" polling, courtesy of 538:

• In Arizona, Trump is up on Harris ... by 0.4%, 46% to 45.6%.
• In Georgia, Harris is up on Trump ... by 0.4%, 46.5% to 46.1%.
• In Michigan, Harris has the edge again ... by 2.1%, 46.6% to 44.5%.
• In Nevada, same ... by 0.6%, with Harris at 45.9% and Trump at 45.3%.
• In North Carolina, Trump has a 0.6% lead on Harris, 46.5% to 45.9%.
• Pennsylvania? A 0.7% differential, Harris ahead of Trump 46.% to 45.5.
• Wisconsin is the "swing" state where someone has the biggest lead, a whopping three points -- Harris 47.6%, Trump 44.6%.

That's all "margin of error" territory.

Normally, by this point in the election cycle, I'd be nearly ready to issue my final state-by-state predictions.

Perhaps we'll see some kind of breakout if one candidate or the other really brings it home, or really shits the bed, versus the other at the debate on Tuesday.

But even if we do, turnout will remain the key.

At the moment, I think Harris has the edge on that.

Trump's supporters don't seem nearly as enthused as they were eight, or even four, years ago. Hell, two months ago. He managed to erase the "look, 'they' tried to assassinate me" adulation effect by going right back to acting crazier than a shithouse rat in public.

Harris's post-Biden-dropout honeymoon with the Democratic base doesn't seem to have collapsed into yelling, throwing things, and consulting divorce lawyers. Part of that is that she's been very limited/curated in her engagement with the media. I don't know if that can last much longer, but if it does she will probably win.

Right now, the Republicans seem to be focused on 1) trying to get RFK Jr. off the ballot in close states (to boost GOP turnout), and 2) trying to get referendums about e.g. abortion off of state ballots (to suppress Democratic turnout). It's not yet clear how much of that will "work," either in getting it done or having the desired effect. If it does, Trump might manage a photo finish win.

It's far less about how many people support them than it is about how many people support them enthusiastically enough to actually cast a ballot.