I just can't place much stock in headlines like "Shock Poll Shows Harris Opening Up Lead Against Trump" right now.
Not just because it's a national poll in an election where a handful of "swing states" will make the difference.
And not just because the difference is basically margin of error.
We're still very much in the honeymoons/bumps period of this election cycle -- three of the major parties' four national ticket candidates weren't even in the race a month ago. They're putting on their initial shows, and taking their initial pokes at each other.
Unless it's just been a blowout from the beginning, early August is way too early to expect polling to be very predictive. After mid-September, barring bizarre and unpredictable events, things settle down and the picture starts to become more clear. Which doesn't mean we know what will happen, especially if it's neck and neck.
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