Wordle 1255 Hint

Hint: The color of Ivy.

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First Letter: B

Wordle 1254 Hint

Hint: The favorite dance of Mr. Brownlow and Rose Maylie.

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First Letter: T

Sigh ... It May Be Time To Start Thinking About A New Mini PC

The current CyberGeek Mini PC is about 15 months old, and constantly used. It's been a good daily driver, but I'm starting to worry about it. I've been seeing higher than normal CPU temperatures for months, even after a good blowout with canned air, switching operating systems, etc. Now I'm occasionally hearing some fan noise.

I think I paid about $150 for it. The model I have -- Intel Celeron N5095A @ 2.00GHz, 16Gb of RAM -- currently retails for $175. So even if I went through a machine of this type every year, it would probably cost less than both buying every 2-3 years, and running, a big tower. I really do love the tiny hardware platforms, and have ever since my first Chromebox 12 years ago and, before that, an old Mac Mini.

My main requirement, other than at least 16Gb of RAM and decent CPU performance, is that it needs to have two HDMI outputs for my monitors, and I'm seeing machines in the $150-$175 price range with those ports all over the place. If I want 32Gb of RAM and a 512Gb or 1Tb drive instead of 128Gb, $300-ish.

I'll be watching Black Friday specials, of course. If I go with the higher end, I'll probably just go ahead and get a Windows machine and devote most of its drive space to a Linux install. The only advantage to a dual-boot machine is that I can e.g. play Starcraft without either switching over to other hardware or trying to get Wine to emulate (I've always had problems with that).

I think my first step will be, over the holiday weekend, to physically open up the box, make sure everything is clean, then revert from my current OS (Linux Mint) to Lubuntu or some other light Linux distribution and see if the problems go away.

In extremis, I can always revert to my previous mini PC, which only has 8Gb of RAM and an inferior CPU, but which does, you know, work. It's a little slower, but it would see me through until I found something better. As would my old Raspberry Pi. Not an emergency. Just an opportunity for a blog post.

Wordle 1253 Hint

Hint: Think bean, or donut.

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First Letter: J

Wordle 1252 Hint

Hint: Sometimes irritation can produce a beautiful result. But you might have to dive deep to find it.

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First Letter: P

Still Working on That There "Biker" Look

 

I'm still undecided on whether to stick with the full winter beard. Some years I grow one, some not. I usually stop shaving around my birthday, then decide around the end of the month whether to keep growing it, or not.

Had Tamara snap this picture just as I was about to leave to finally pick up the permanent tag for the bike. The temps expired nearly two months ago, but I never got pulled over. Apparently DMV was just behind for a little while, then they gave the scooter shop some kind of trouble about selling vehicles larger than 50cc, then the shop texted me that they were there ... but texted to the wrong number. Anyway, got that done.

You can't see the stickers that went on the bike the other day -- "SF / MF" on one side, "Olivia D" on the other, but as you can see I decided to add the ritualistic old cafe racer "electric tape X on the headlight."  No functionality as in the old days (the original purpose was to reduce injuries from shattered glass if the headlight got broken, but these days headlight "glass" is either safety glass or plastic). Also kind of a joke since she doesn't make race speeds.

I've been looking a little wistfully at some used bikes -- a  2001Ducati Monster 900ie at the top of the speed/power range (130mph, 78 horsepower, $2,900) a 2021 Yamaha V Star 250 at the low end (85mph, 21 horsepower, $2,950) -- but even if I had the cash on hand I don't think I'm ready yet. I haven't yet done significant mods to get more power and speed out of Olivia D, and she's still fun ... I may just ride her into the ground and buy later instead of hoping to flip her for a big chunk of the next bike's price sooner.

Wordle 1251 Hint

Hint: Need help with today's Wordle? I've got your back!

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First Letter: S

NFL Week 12 Picks

NFL Week 12 starts tomorrow night with the Pittsburgh Steelers playing the Cleveland Browns. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them. Any changes to my initial picks will be made before kickoff and will be noted below.

• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Cleveland Browns
• Minnesota Vikings beat Chicago Bears
• Detroit Lions beat Indianapolis Colts
• Miami Dolphins beat New England Patriots
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat New York Giants
• Washington Commanders beat Dallas Cowboys
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Carolina Panthers
• Houston Texans beat Tennessee Titans
• Denver Broncos beat Las Vegas Raiders
• San Francisco 49ers beat Green Bay Packers*
• Arizona Cardinals beat Seattle Seahawks
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Los Angeles Rams
• Baltimiore Ravens beat Los Angels Chargers

The Chiefs' loss to the Bills last weekend wasn't a big surprise or disappointment ... and I expect the Chiefs to beat the Bills if, as is becoming "the usual," they meet up in the playoffs. The score last weekend (Bills 30, Chiefs 21) doesn't really reflect how close that game was, and the Chiefs are about to start getting some of their biggest assets back from injury status. On the AFC side, I'm more worried about the Steelers or the Ravens than I am about the Bills.

In the Super Bowl, I expect the Chiefs to face the Lions, or maybe (dark horse) the Commanders. The former worry me more than the latter.

But I'm still very hopeful for a KC "threepeat."

Wordle 1250 Hint

Hint: Being in a hole can actually be a good thing ... if that hole is your own special calling.

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First Letter: N

Well, That's It For The Year!

My goal for the year was 650 posts. This is my 650th post, so I get the rest of the year off, right?

Nah. Even with just Wordle hints and NFL picks/results, I expect to top 700. And I'll try to drop in with other stuff (politics, whatever) too. But now the pressure is off.

NFL Week 11 Results

My Week 11 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Washington Commanders beat Philadelphia Eagles*
• Green Bay Packers beat Chicago Bears
• Detroit Lions beat Jacksonville Jaguars
• Minnesota Vikings beat Tennessee Titans
• Miami Dolphins beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams beat New England Patriots
• New Orleans Saints beat Cleveland Browns
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens*
• Indianapolis Colts beat New York Jets*
• Atlanta Falcons beat Denver Broncos
• San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Buffalo Bills*
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Houston Texans beat Dallas Cowboys

Not a terrible week -- nine right, five wrong -- but several negative surprises. For the season, I am at 111 right, 55 wrong, and  in the 96th percentile among players of in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

Wordle 1249 Hint

Hint: When an auction is almost, but not quite, over.

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First Letter: G

Wordle 1248 Hint

Hint: Take special care not to break today's Wordle while trying to solve it -- it's rather delicate and fragile.

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First Letter: F

Wordle 1247 Hint

Hint: How do I love Wordle? Let me count the ways.

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First Letter: T

Wordle 1246 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle may be easy on the eyes, but it also seems a little shady.

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First Letter: V

Wordle 1245 Hint

Hint: I said something in poor taste -- now I'm in what one might call a slightly sticky situation.

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First Letter: T

OK, I Am At Bluesky Now ...

You can find/follow my profile here, or from the handy dandy sidebar button, if you like.

No, I'm not leaving Twitter for Bluesky. I'm just adding Bluesky to the social media I use.

If you're entering Bluesky and want to follow your Twitter connections there as well, Sky Follower Bridge helps you find/follow them (it's available as an extension for Chrome, Edge, and Firefox).

Wordle 1244 Hint

Hint: You have a little grape stuck in your throat. By "you," I mean everyone who hasn't had it removed to e.g. alleviate sleep apnea.

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First Letter: U

NFL Week 11 Picks

NFL Week 11 starts tomorrow night with the Washington Commanders playing the Philadelphia Eagles. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them. Any changes to my initial picks will be made before kickoff and will be noted below.

• Washington Commanders beat Philadelphia Eagles*
• Green Bay Packers beat Chicago Bears
• Detroit Lions beat Jacksonville Jaguars
• Minnesota Vikings beat Tennessee Titans
• Miami Dolphins beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Los Angeles Rams beat New England Patriots
• New Orleans Saints beat Cleveland Browns
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens*
• Indianapolis Colts beat New York Jets*
• Atlanta Falcons beat Denver Broncos
• San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Buffalo Bills*
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Los Angeles Chargers
• Houston Texans beat Dallas Cowboys

In theory, it's still possible for the Chargers (6-3), Broncos (5-5), or even Raiders (2-7) to catch up with the Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) and clinch the "bye week" before the divisional round. But I'm not seeing much likelihood of that.

The Chiefs are the underdogs for this week's match-up versus the Bills. It won't surprise me if they lose -- I picked them because I don't ever not pick the Chiefs to win -- but neither will it surprise me if they win. They've found good replacements for injured players, and now have some of those injured players filtering back in for possible play as early as this week.

I'm not one of those people who dares dream of a "perfect season" -- there's only been one in NFL history, the 1972 Dolphins -- but I do expect the Chiefs to have a very good November and December, and to "three-peat" on the Super Bowl. Part of that is blind faith, part of that is reasonable sober assessment.

Wordle 1243 Hint

Hint: Before solving today's Wordle, prepare by messing with your hair until it's just right.

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First Letter: P

NFL Week 10 Results

My Week 10 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Carolina Panthers beat New York Giants*
• Chicago Bears beat New England Patriots
• Buffalo Bills beat Indianapolis Colts
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Denver Broncos
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints
• San Francisco 49ers beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Washington Commanders*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Jacksonville Jaguars
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Tennessee Titans
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys
• Arizona Cardinals beat New York Jets
• Detroit Lions beat Houston Texans
• Miami Dolphins beat Los Angeles Rams*

Nice! Twelve right, only two wrong -- and I got all of my "upset" picks correct! For the season, I am at 102 right, 50 wrong, and  in the 96.7th percentile among players of in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

Wordle 1242 Hint

Hint: What the bird had done, motivating John Lennon to light a fire.

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First Letter: F

How/Why Trump Won and Harris Lost

I'm seeing a lot of opinion columns on that subject, but my explanation is just too short for a full op-ed, so I'm making it a blog post. Here's that explanation:

Trump won by getting, and because he got, 312 electoral votes, which is more than the 270 required to win a presidential election.

Harris lost by getting, and because she got, 226 electoral votes, which is less than the 270 required to win a presidential election.

Hope that clears things up for anyone who's confused.

Wordle 1241 Hint

Hint: If Diogenes of Sinope had attached a painted porch to the large barrel he lived in, maybe he'd have stopped being such a Cynic and become one of these.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1240 Hint

Hint: Friends, Romans, countrymen, lend me the parts of your ears that include the cochleae and vestibular systems (you can hold on to your auricles and canals).

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First Letter: I

Wordle 1239 Hint

Hint: How today's Wordle grows larger than it was.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1238 Hint

Hint: Steady, go! Or not. Either way, here I come, Player One.

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First Letter: R

NFL Week 10 Picks

NFL Week 10 starts tonight with the Cincinnati Bengals playing the Baltimore Ravens. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Baltimore Ravens beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Carolina Panthers beat New York Giants*
• Chicago Bears beat New England Patriots
• Buffalo Bills beat Indianapolis Colts
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Denver Broncos
• Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints
• San Francisco 49ers beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat Washington Commanders*
• >>> Minnesota Vikings beat Jacksonville Jaguars <<< PICK CHANGE, see below
• Los Angeles Chargers beat Tennessee Titans
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys
• Arizona Cardinals beat New York Jets
• Detroit Lions beat Houston Texans
• Miami Dolphins beat Los Angeles Rams*

Update: As you can see, I've changed one of my picks, well ahead of kickoff (more than two days ahead of kickoff, in fact). I had the Jaguars picked to upset the Vikings, because their play has definitely been improving. However, I now see that Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence is injured and unlikely to play this weekend, so expecting an upset would a stretch too far even for me.

Wordle 1237 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle could be the main one; it could be the big one; it could be both; or maybe it's just the regularly scheduled one.

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First Letter: E

Cat Got Their Tongues?

Most days, by this time of day, I've  found most or all of my minimum ten podcasts to blurb/link for tomorrow's edition of Rational Review News Digest, and am looking around to see whether I can find 15 worth promoting.

Today, it looks like I'll be lucky to hit five.

I guess part of that may be that a bunch of them did live listener events or "emergency" quickies instead of real podcasts on Election Night.

And another part of it may be that after nearly a year of constant breathless campaign coverage, many podcasters are like "fuck it -- BREAK TIME! Finally!"

But it's kind of weird to hear -- or, rather, not hear -- so many usually loud voices going silent at the same time.

I Like To Get My Admissions of Error In Early ...

... and at the moment, it looks like my presidential election outcome prediction was quite incorrect, both as to general outcome (the disgraced former president seems to have defeated the empty pantsuit), and with fewer correct state predictions than my usual 48.

No, I didn't stay up all night awaiting results -- one of my children thought it was of paramount importance that I know, in the middle of the night, that his motivated guess was right and my dispassionate analysis was wrong.

There shall surely be much wailing and gnashing of teeth. But that was inevitable no matter the vote counts.

Like Mencken said, "democracy, too, is a religion. It is the worship of jackals by jackasses."

Wordle 1236 Hint

Hint: Really and honestly, today's Wordle is an adverb.

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First Letter: T

NFL Week 9 Results

My Week 9 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Houston Texans beat New York Jets
• Atlanta Falcons beat Dallas Cowboys
• Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Cleveland Browns beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• Tennesse Titans beat New England Patriots*
• Washington Commanders beat New York Giants
• Carolina Panthers beat New Orleans Saints*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Denver Broncos
• Chicago Bears beat Arizona Cardinals
• Philadelphia Eagles beata Jacksonville Jaguars
• Detroit Lions beat Green Bay Packers
• Seattle Seahawks beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Indianapolis Colts
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Nice week -- 11 right, four wrong! For the season, I am at 90 right, 48 wrong, and  in the 91.2nd percentile among players of in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

Yet Another "There May Be Brief Disruptions" Post

Tamara is scheduled for surgery on Thursday.

My understanding is that it's relatively minor and low-risk surgery (removal of a supposedly benign nodule from her thyroid), but between it not yet being "known schedule" (they'll tell us what time to have her there on Thursday, Wednesday night) and that any such event necessarily involves several hours of my supportive time (transportation, etc.) no matter how perfectly it goes, there may not be timely blog posts, Garrison Center columns, etc. for a day or two.

If so, now you'll know why.

Wordle 1235 Hint

Hint: When two barber shop singing groups merge, but can still only collectively afford four shaves/haircuts among themselves.

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First Letter: O

It Was Baked Into My Prediction ... But Did I Mix Enough Of It In There?

I'm seeing a bit of consternation from the GOP side, and a bit of ecstasy on the Democratic side, over that Iowa poll showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump ... in Iowa.

Trump carried Iowa with 53.09% of the vote to Joe Biden's 44.89% in 2020.

So if Harris really is leading Trump by 47%-44% there (those numbers are within the margin of error), and if the shift really is attributable to women as a voting bloc, then the obvious, but not necessarily correct conclusion, and one I'm hearing from both sides, is that it's all about abortion in general and the Dobbs decision in particular.

My own assumption was that the issue would produce a slight change in favor of the Democrats among women, both as to how they would vote and how likely they were to vote.

Slight, because presumptively most women who care a lot about abortion -- pro-life and pro-choice -- were already voting, and already voting the same way they'll vote this year, in 2020. Since pro-life voters already have what they say they want now, they might be slightly less likely to vote, or to vote on that issue alone; and maybe a few pro-choice voters who were busy or depressed or something in 2020 got all energized since then. But I was figuring on maybe a 1% swing in favor of the Democrats.

But what if it's bigger than that? Did I under-estimate the impact? Well, maybe.

Or what if Trump's other problems with women ended up being a factor even among women who were pro-life, or at least not abortion-centric in their voting? Did I under-estimate the impact of, say, the E. Jean Carroll verdict? Well, maybe.

Or what if this poll is just an outlier blip, an anomaly based on a non-representative pool of voters reached, that doesn't really reflect the coming results in Iowa? That would not surprise me at all.

I will find it interesting if I get Iowa wrong ... again. I had it going for Clinton in 2016 because I figured farmers there considered their ethanol subsidies safe in her hands and weren't sure what Trump would do, simply because you never know what the hell Trump is going to do (he ended up shoveling more welfare at farmers than Hillary -- or Bill -- ever dreamed of, but it wasn't obvious that would happen).

At the moment, I'm trying to decide whether I'll even bother watching the breathless election night coverage tomorrow. If I do, it will probably be on CBS. I don't have any particular presence for that network, but I have a free (with Walmart+) subscription to Paramount Plus, which means I don't have to dick around with my antenna, etc. if I'm interested.

One Day Out: You Really Can Stop Asking Me That One Thing

You know the thing.

Since I issued my "final prediction" on the outcome of this year's presidential election on September 21, I've been asked at least twice a week -- here on the blog and via other media, including in-person -- if I'm still standing behind that "final prediction" or would like to revise it.

The thing about "final predictions" is that they're, um, final. They could end up having been right or wrong, but they don't change.

If I turn out to have been wrong as to outcomes -- either overall or in specific states -- well, I'll have been wrong. The whole point, for me, is to test my predictive abilities against the facts I can gather, the predictive models I've settled on, etc., and see whether or not they work out. If they don't, then I will try to figure out why and do better next time. I'm not going to continually tweak my prediction until the very last moment to nearly guarantee being "right." That wouldn't be any fun at all.

If I'm right, I'll crow a little (and incrementally more the righter I was in detail).

If I'm wrong, I'll eat my crow in front of those who were right.

Do I have any inkling that I'm wrong?

On a state-by-state basis, I'm less sure about my predictions in some states (Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina) than others (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), but happy to just wait and see rather than try to back-track and change my "final prediction."

On an overall basis, with ~80 million votes already cast (according to the University of Florida Election Lab, 78,003,222 as of Friday morning and undoubtedly quite a few since then), I'm pretty comfortable with my "final prediction" that Kamala Harris will knock down more electoral votes than Donald Trump.

So yes, what I said was my last word will remain my last word until the results are announced, or at least very, very clear.

Wordle 1234 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle makes me feel so retro (a polite way of saying "old"). It describes both the upholstery I sat on to listen to music, and the medium the music was usually stored on, circa 1975.

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First Letter: V

A Ride In The Country, Etc.

Yesterday morning, Tamara was busy and not prepared to be out and about, so I decided to ride the Italica Bulldog 150 over to Alachua for a breakfast buffet.

I never made it to the breakfast buffet. I took a wrong turn, decided to just explore, and ended up covering about 80 miles while seeing some new territory (none of it more than 20 miles or so from home), finishing up with what was supposed to be a quick breakfast at McDonald's.

Fun ride -- an elderly lady approached me while I was gassing up and told me how "cute" my bike is: "It looks like a wasp!" I thanked her. I had, the day before, gone over all the yellow fairings with "protectant" wipes, and the yellow is back to its factory pop.

Less than fun McDonald's experience.

McDonald's is no longer really very well-equipped to take orders and accept payment at the counter. For one thing, they're just not staffed for it. They expect customers to input, and pay for, their orders at automated kiosks.

On this particular morning, two of the four kiosks were down hard, while the other two could take an order but not let you pay for an order. It took my order, then gave me an order number and told me to pay at the counter.

So, I got in line at the counter, and frankly that process seemed to move fairly quickly, except for one upset customer who happened to be two people in front of me. As best I could understand the prequel to my arrival, she thought she had ordered X, but had instead ordered Y; the manager had attempted to fix things, and had ended up refunding her money and telling her she could keep the food she got.

But this lady ... wanted. I didn't count the "I wants," but they were well into two figures. She didn't want this food, but as soon as the manager shrugged, said "OK," and started to walk away with the food, it was "I WANT MY FOOD." And the manager would hand her the food. And then she would shout "I WANT" X where X was apparently the thing she thought she'd ordered, and the manager would offer to either sell it to her or replace the order there on the counter with it at no upcharge, at which point no, "I WANT THE FOOD I [THOUGHT I] ORDERED AND THIS FOOD" and the manager would explain that after a refund and free food, she wasn't going to get an additional order at no charge. "I WANT A CODE" (for free future food). No, she wasn't getting a refund, and free food, and more free food in the future.

This went on for about 10 minutes.

At about the ninth bazillion "I WANT," I said "I WANT YOU TO GET OUT OF THE WAY SO I CAN GET MY BREAKFAST."

At which point, the manager asked her to leave, which was met with another round of "I WANT"s. Then someone else yelled "CALL THE COPS," and the manager already had the phone in her hand.

At which the point lady exclaimed that it was just fine if the cops were called because "I WANT." And manager, who continued to speak in a calm, measured, nearly angelic tone, said (again) "Ma'am, I've taken every reasonable step to satisfy you, and now I'm asking you to leave."

At which point the lady had some kind of physical tantrum involving her arms, with one hand managing to slap the motorcycle helmet in my hand, and for a brief instant I considered responding to that as physical aggression and slapping her good and hard across the face ... with the helmet.

I'm not like that, though, so even though someone behind me said "I think that qualifies as assault," I just stood there. I'd said my piece and I was unharmed.

Finally, the lady took her food. Walked away. And as she approached the exit, threw her coffee and her food at the wall before walking out.

I've only seen tantrums of that type in checkout lines a couple of times, and this was by far the most drawn-out and tedious such incident (I did, however, dine at a Burger King in Hollywood a few days after Jerry Lewis apparently threw such a tantrum, and when I asked the girl at the counter if this was that Burger King, it turned out she was the very one he'd yelled at because he wanted breakfast after they had switched to lunch).

So anyway, fun ride, not as fun breakfast. Although I do wonder whether my upgrade (I ordered the Big Breakfast, but received the Big Breakfast with pancakes) was intentional compensation or just an error.

In other motorcycle news, I finally have some panniers/saddlebags on the way from Walmart, and a transparent custom sticker with the bike's name (Olivia D) on it on the way from Temu. A recent arrival from Temu was a pair of sub-$5 fleece "handlebar mittens" -- I ordered plain black, but for some reason I got ones with big pictures of something called "Lucky Bear" on them. I guess they'll keep my hands as warm.

I expect to hit 1,000 miles on the bike -- second oil change point -- some time in the next couple of weeks. Average fuel economy so far, per Fuelly, 66.1 miles per gallon.

Wordle 1233

Hint: What Mel Brooks's saddles did.

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First Letter: B

Wordle 1232 Hint

Hint: A sneaky investigator (or a friend of Martha Stewart).

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First Letter: S

Thanks For Asking! -- November 2024

It's Ask Me Anything -- yes, anything -- time again. Ask in comments, and I'll answer in, or linked from, comments.

Wordle 1231 Hint

Hint: Per ISO 8601, Saturday. In Hebrew, Friday.

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First Letter: S

Four Hypotheticals

Hypothetical Number One: Donald Trump wins the election.

Hypothetical Number Two: Joe Biden, who is a lame duck with nothing better to do, and who can act with impunity/immunity, and without an immediate successor whose success he needs to worry about, for more than two months, decides to do some light reading.

Hypothetical Number Three: Biden comes across something interesting, and calls Anthony Blinken.

Hypothetical Number Four: Anthony Blinken calls Israel Katz and says "hey, Joe was browsing the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, and came across Section 620M. It seems that 'no assistance shall be furnished under this Act or the Arms Export Control Act to any unit of the security forces of a foreign country if the Secretary of State has credible information that such unit has committed a gross violation of human rights.' So, you know, he called me, and I couldn't lie to him. You're cut off. No more weapons ... oh, I'm required by that same law to inform you, which I have now done, and to assist you in taking measures to bring the responsible members of the security forces to justice. So yeah, the first measure would be getting all of your troops out of Lebanon, Gaza, the West Bank, and Jerusalem. Once that's done, let's touch base on how to proceed with arrests, trials, etc. so maybe you can start getting your welfare checks again. Have a nice day!"

The Israel lobby has mostly abandoned the Democrats now anyway, so a clean break and four years to talk that up -- even while Trump undoes it -- seems like smart politics to me.

In Which I Briefly Put On My Stand-Up Comedy Hat

As long-time readers of this blog may remember, I made a brief foray into the world of stand-up comedy. 

It wasn't much, really -- a couple of open mic sets, IIRC one of them a two-minute and the second one a five-minute. Those two times weren't accidental. The first time you came to this particular open mic, you got two minutes. And if you got laughs, well, then, the next week the person running the thing would give you five minutes if you wanted.

I got laughs both times. I started working on a "tight ten" minute routine, which is the next step and maybe one you get to do as one of the minor comedians in a "real" show instead of at an open mic ... and then the pandemic hit, everything just shut down, and at some point I lost interest. My main reason for messing with it in the first place was that I thought it might reduce my fear of public speaking. I think it did.

Anyway, that's all by way of establishing my (exceedingly minimal) credentials as an authority on whether or not a joke works. Whether it's good. Whether it's something the person who came up with should expect to get laughs out of. So:

There are a number of different "formulas" for writing jokes.

My own favorite such formula is to start talking about something people recognize, understand, are familiar with, or can identify with, then take a sudden, unexpected turn on that subject. You lull them, then you shock them. It may take five seconds or five minutes to move from the wholly relatable premise to the "wow, that was completely unexpected" turn, but that's the formula.

Here's a not really very good joke I posted to this very blog, one of my early attempts, way back in 2014 (years before I braved a microphone and a live audience). It uses that formula.

Wholly Relatable Premise: I tried to break up with my girlfriend. Told her we shouldn't date any more. Told her adieu.

Wow, That Was Completely Unexpected Turn: So now she thinks we're married.

Here's another one that I posted to Facebook in May of 2020. Similar formula, but it has a little kick after the turn. This one  got me contacted by another comedian I'd done those two open mics with. He was trying to set up his own open mic at a different bar, and he wanted me to show up because he liked it. But you know how long the pandemic, and the accompanying public event restrictions, dragged on. And it happens to be about those restrictions.

Wholly Relatable Premise: I was at the store today and a woman walked up to me and informed me that having my nose hanging outside my mask is like having my penis hanging outside my pants. I looked at her for a minute, waiting for her to go on, and she looked at me for a minute waiting for me to respond. Finally, she said "do you understand what I'm saying?"

Wow, That Was Completely Unexpected Turn: I said "I think you're saying that you want to see my penis, but I'm not really sure."

Little Post-Turn kick: Then she ran away.

Maybe you laughed when you read those jokes. Maybe you didn't. I personally think they're a little better delivered vocally. When it comes to influences, I tend to lean toward e.g. Steven Wright or Mitch Hedberg. So imagine them delivered pretty much deadpan.

Warming up for Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe used the same formula, in short form. It's quick punch, not rope-a-dope.

Wholly Relatable Premise: There’s a lot going on. I don’t know if you know this but there’s literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now.

Wow, That Was Completely Unexpected Turn: I think it’s called Puerto Rico.

My "professional" opinion:

He nailed it.

In any venue other than a presidential campaign rally -- particularly in the kind of venues he usually performs at, where he's known for taking a "roast" approach to everyone, everything, and everywhere --  that joke would have killed.

But when a joke is told at a presidential campaign rally, any person or group who feels insulted (and anyone who wants to play to that person or group) will treat it as a political statement on the part of the campaign rather than as "just" a joke by a comedian.

I'm not saying that's good or bad, just noticing that that's how things are. I'm not a Trump supporter, or a Harris supporter, nor do I have anything against Puerto Rico (in fact, it's probably in my top ten "places I'd like to visit, and could visit without getting a passport" list).

If all I knew of Hinchcliffe's ouvre was that joke -- and guess what, all I know of Hinchcliffe's ouvre is that joke! -- he would go (and has gone) on my list of "comedians I'd like to see live."

Wordle 1230 Hint

Hint: Think Tales, Science, or Al. 

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First Letter: W

NFL Week 9 Picks

NFL Week 9 starts Thursday (tomorrow) night with the Houston Texans playing the New York Jets. Here are my picks, as entered in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game. "Upset" picks -- that is, picks where I'm in the minority as to who will win -- have asterisks next to them.

• Houston Texans beat New York Jets
• Atlanta Falcons beat Dallas Cowboys
• Buffalo Bills beat Miami Dolphins
• Cincinnati Bengals beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Cleveland Browns beat Los Angeles Chargers*
• Tennesse Titans beat New England Patriots*
• Washington Commanders beat New York Giants
• Carolina Panthers beat New Orleans Saints*
• Baltimore Ravens beat Denver Broncos
• Chicago Bears beat Arizona Cardinals
• Philadelphia Eagles beata Jacksonville Jaguars
• Detroit Lions beat Green Bay Packers
• Seattle Seahawks beat Los Angeles Rams*
• Minnesota Vikings beat Indianapolis Colts
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This weekend will mark the halfway point of the 18-week season. So far I've been a little bit lazy about e.g. checking team injury reports and things like that, and maybe changing picks, but on the back end of the season I'll probably keep my ear closer to the ground.

Any changes to my picks will be made both at the ESPN picking game site and here, clearly marked, in the blog post. They'll be made before kickoff of the game in question, of course.

Wordle 1229 Hint

Hint: An aspiring painter's first and most reliable supporter usually has three legs. 

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First Letter: E

NFL Week 8 Results

My Week 8 picks, green for correct ones, red for incorrect ones:

• Minnesota Vikings beat Los Angeles Rams
• Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns
• Detroit Lions beat Tennessee Titans
• Miami Dolphins beat Arizona Cardinals*
• New York Jets beat New England Patriots
• Atlanta Falcons beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
• Jacksonville Jaguars beat Green Bay Packers*
• Houston Texans beat Indianapolis Colts
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Cincinnati Bengals
• Buffalo Bills beat Seattle Seahawks
• Washington Commanders beat Chicago Bears
• Denver Broncos beat Carolina Panthers
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Las Vegas Raiders
• San Francisco 49ers beat Dallas Cowboys
• Pittsburgh Steelers beat New York Giants

An additional pick which for some reason did not appear in my initial pick post, but does appear where it counts, in my pick list at ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game:

• Los Angeles Chargers beat New Orleans Saints

Which adds up to 11 right, five wrong for the week. For the season, I am at 79 right, 44 wrong in the 90.9th percentile in ESPN's "Pigskin Pick'em" game.

Wordle 1228 Hint

Hint: I want a girl who's fast, thorough, and sharp as a tack ... and who wears another term for today's Wordle above her short skirt. 

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First Letter: T

How Enthusiastic Are People About Politics, Really?

Over the weekend, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both held big campaign rallies (Trump's, as you may have heard, was at Madison Square Garden).

The Garden was "sold out" (even though the tickets were free). It has a capacity of about 20,000.

Harris's rally claimed attendance of about 30,000.

The two of them combined, even with free tickets, didn't draw as many fans as the Kansas City Chiefs / Las Vegas Raiders (about 62,000) or Taylor Swift (about 65,000).

Between Harris and Trump, one of them will spend four years in the White House, becoming very difficult to see live, while the other will likely draw small crowds on the rubber chicken speaking circuit for the rest of his or her life. People who wanted to see them knew the best time to see them was now. About 50,000, total, showed up for their free shows.

The Chiefs and Raiders play each other twice a year, every year.

Taylor Swift has done six major concert tours and seems likely to do more in the future.

And 130,000 people paid big money to see them instead of Trump or Harris.

I think that's a good thing in terms of keeping life in perspective.

Hell, I'm a political junkie and even I am tired of those idiotic political ads during football games on TV.

I'm Considering An Auction or Dueling Fundraiser, But Want Opinions First

There's a phenomenon that seems to come in two parts pretty much every time, and which has transpired perhaps once a month for the last two years or so.

Part 1: Someone I haven't met before, or whom I haven't seen in a long time, compliments me on my mustache.

Part 2: Someone else whom I've known since before I've grown the mustache, but who hasn't seen it recently (or maybe at all), sees it and says I should get rid of it, that it "just doesn't look like" me.

I'm thinking about letting people vote with their dollars on whether I keep it or shave it off.

Two ways I could do that:

1. Set up an auction -- whoever bids the most gets to tell me whether the mustache comes off, or whether I keep it for some minimum time post-auction (with exceptions for medical emergencies, i.e. facial surgery or whatever); or
2. Just hold dueling fundraisers, with me doing the will of the team/side that donates the most (with the same exception for shaving it if medically required for some reason, even if the fundraising result is "keep it").

In either case, the money raised would be applied to Rational Review News Digest's year-end fundraiser total.

One personal benefit for me, either way, would be off-loading a difficult decision onto others.

I've been thinking about shaving it off for most of a year now. Once summer arrived and I was out in the sun a lot, I decided to put the decision off until at least autumn, when I'm not spending as much time out in the sun tanning the parts of my body not covered by hair.

What do you guys think? Any of you have a strong enough opinion on the subject to financially back an outcome? I don't want to bother with it if I'm going to end up bound by others' decision for, say, ten bucks.

Travis Kelce: Broken Down, Distracted, or Under-Utilized?

Yesterday (on National Tight Ends Day), Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce scored his 75th career touchdown. Among tight ends, he now places fifth in NFL history on the "most career touchdowns" statistic.

It was also his first touchdown of the season.

I've seen a lot of speculation that Kelce is finally worn out and at the end of his career, or distracted by his acting aspirations and famous relationship, or that the Chiefs are just "under-utilizing" him.

I'm not going to try to convince you that 35-year-old Kelce in functionally equivalent to 25-year-old Kelce. Yes, he is moving toward the end of his career. His job involves getting hit, hard and frequently, by very large muscular men. You can only do that for so long before your body rebels. And of course, age in general takes a toll on speed, reflexes, etc. But he's not broken down. He's still insanely capable.

I doubt a football player of his caliber lets movie ambitions or romantic involvements distract him very much when he's on the field. He's still showing he's insanely capable.

And no, he's not being "under-utilized." He's being fully utilized based on the team's situation.

When Travis Kelce is on the field, there are two possible team situations.

One is that he gets the full attention of at least two of the other team's defenders -- meaning that other Chiefs offensive players are less covered, more open, and able to get yards and scores.

The other is that he gets regular instead of intense coverage from defenders -- in which case he gets the ball and moves it for big yards and/or scores.

The Chiefs' play-callers -- coach Andy Reid, offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes -- keep a close eye on which situation is which. When they see Kelce getting a lot of attention, they seize the opportunity to target other players for better results. When their opponents start re-focusing away from Kelce, he gets the ball and does great things with it.

There's a third element that affects that balance:

The Chiefs are trying to (and look like they're in good position to -- they're the only undefeated NFL team at this point in the season) return to, and win, the Super Bowl for a third consecutive time. If they manage it, they'll be the first NFL team to ever do so.

They want Kelce healthy and un-injured for the post-season, so it makes sense right now to really lean into the "let them cover the hell out of him ... but make them tackle other people" side of things.

There's a non-trivial possibility that this will be Kelce's final season. I kind of doubt it, but it's possible. The Chiefs want that season to end with ol' Number 87 putting points on playoff and Super Bowl scoreboards, not sitting on the sidelines with a torn ACL from an October or November game that, win or lose, won't likely affect their chances of making the playoffs.