Election 2024: What I Learned From Super Tuesday

On the Democratic side, the lesson is simple: If Biden intends to stay in the presidential race, he needs to find a way to flip the script on Israel/Gaza. In Minnesota, 19% of primary voters went "uncommitted" or "no preference." In North Carolina, 13%. Iowa, 4%. In Massachusetts, 9%. Alabama, 6%. Tennessee, 8%. Colorado, 8%. Some of those states are "safe" states that he's either definitely or definitely not going to win in November. Others are closer, maybe close enough that depressed Democratic turnout and/or third party votes from usual Democrats could change the outcome. I'm not convinced that Biden does intend to stay in the presidential race, though. And if he does, I suspect he's preparing some Israel/Palestine moves that might get some of those voters back.

On the Republican side ... of the 15 states in play yesterday, Trump only broke 80% in three (Alaska, Alabama, and Oklahoma), failed to even top 75% in seven (Utah, Colorado, Minnesota, North Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Maine), and lost Vermont.

At present, 270 to Win lists four states as "tossups" -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It also evaluates the Democrats as having 267 electoral votes in safe, likely, or leaning Democrat territory, to the Republicans' 219.

Let's make a conservative prediction or two about what happens if Trump loses even a fraction of Republicans who preferred Haley. They don't vote, or they vote third party, or worst of all they completely flip and go for Biden.

Let's be conservative:

Let's pretend that Trump is averaging 80% among Republican voters, even though the actual percentage is much lower.

And let's pretend that 75% of the voters who didn't support him versus Haley will, however reluctantly, still vote for him in November.

And let's further pretend that all of that 5% just stay home or vote third party instead of voting Biden (that is, adding a vote to Biden's column in addition to subtracting a vote from Trump's column).

Basically, let's pretend that only 5% of Republican votes will abandon Trump in November.

In Arizona in 2020, Trump lost to Biden by 0.3%.

In Georgia in 2020, Trump lost to Biden by 0.23%.

In Wisconsin in 2020, Trump lost to Biden by 0.63%.

In Michigan in 2020, Trump lost to Biden by 2.78%.

There's no "tossup" state in which Trump can afford to lose 5% of his 2020 support and still win the election.

Now, go look at those electoral vote numbers again.

Biden needs one of those four  "tossup" states to win the election. Trump needs all four.

What I learned from Super Tuesday (and already pretty much knew) was that if the election was tomorrow and if someone put a gun to my head and forced me to bet $100 on the outcome, I'd be wise to put that money on a Biden win.

The election is eight months away and a lot can happen.

The question is, who will whatever happens be better or worse for?