Election 2024: Now The Going Gets Weird (And Maybe The Weird Turn Pro)

So far, in terms of "nuts and bolts election analysis," I've tried to remain reasonably phlegmatic.

Yes, Trump has a huge weak spot in the form of "Republican, but not that guy" primary voters who might stay home or defect.

Yes, Biden has several huge weak spots, including his handling of Gaza (resulting in "uncommitted" primary voters and possible future abstentions/defections), his obvious mental/cognitive deficits (which doesn't seem to hurt Trump nearly as badly), etc.

But so far, I've taken something of a "comes out in the wash" attitude toward those.

And so far, I've treated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as a "potential five percent fly in someone's -- probably mostly Trump's -- ointment."

But yesterday he became the biggest third party / independent factor since Ross Perot, and maybe bigger than that.

His vice-presidential pick, Nicole Shanahan, is a multi-billionaire (the estimate I've seen is a net worth of $10 billion).

Presidential and vice-presidential candidates are allowed, even under the US government's draconian campaign finance laws, to spend unlimited amounts of their own money on their own campaigns.

The most recent numbers I've noticed have Biden with more than $150 million in cash on hand, Trump with more than $40 million.

Shanahan can presumably, should she choose, pump a billion dollars or more of her own money into the RFK campaign.

That doesn't necessarily mean RFK can win the election. But it does mean he can completely change how the campaigns are conducted and have a huge effect on how things play out.

Shit's about to get weird, folks.