Election 2024: Georgia On My Mind

There were three presidential primaries in the US yesterday, and one of them was Georgia, one of the four "toss-up" states in play according to 270 to Win (the other three are Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin).

Absent some kind of major realignment between now and November, Joe Biden only has to win one of those "toss-up" states to win the election, while Trump has to win all four.

In 2020, Trump lost Georgia to Biden by less than one quarter of one percent of the vote.

My perception is that since that time the overall lean of the state has moved toward the GOP.

But it's still likely to be close.

And it isn't looking as good for Trump as I'd have expected it to.

More than 15% of the vote went to candidates who've either dropped out of the race or that nobody's ever heard of.

The bulk of that "no way I'm voting for Trump even though he's the only one left" vote (13.23%) went to Nikki Haley.

If even one-third of non-Trump voters stay home or vote third party or Democrat in November, Trump almost certainly loses that Georgia again.