Election 2024: More Bad News for Trump

Florida held its presidential primary yesterday.

Let me get the bad news for Democrats out of the way first. There was no Democratic presidential primary.

The Democratic Party asked that one not be held because there was supposedly no significant opposition to incumbent Joe Biden.

But the presidential primary drives turnout to local and county elections ... and Republicans romped in those elections, because most Democratic voters didn't bother to vote. That was a huge own-goal driven entirely by fear of Biden getting embarrassed.

But back to a theme you may be getting tired of hearing from me:

Trump broke 80% in the GOP primary ... barely. 81.19%.

18.81% of Florida GOP voters didn't want him.

And worse, the bulk of that non-Trump vote did not go to "favorite son" Ron DeSantis, the incumbent governor, who was still on the ballot even though he dropped out after Iowa. He only knocked down 3.68%.

Nikki Haley, who also dropped out (after Super Tuesday) took 13.86%.

Trump won Florida by 1.2% in 2016 (after winning the primary with only 45.72%), then got more popular, winning the 2020 GOP primary with 93.79% of the vote and beating Biden by 3.35% in November.

Granted, in 2020, Trump was a de jure, rather than merely de facto, incumbent as he is this year. But it should still worry him that about 1 in 7 Republican voters chose an anti-Trump alternative rather than Trump himself or his "favorite son" Mini-Me.

High Democratic turnout and 1 in 7 Republicans either too apathetic to vote at all, or so anti-Trump that they pick Biden, could put the state in play.

And I expect extra-high Democratic turnout in November in Florida, as there will almost certainly be two ballot measures (abortion protections and recreational marijuana legalization) well-suited to driving that turnout.

"In play" doesn't necessarily mean that Florida goes blue. But it does mean Trump and the GOP being forced to pour money and work into Florida -- money and work that can't be used in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, or Wisconsin, all of which Trump will probably have to win to win the election.