Week 4 NFL Picks

Last week I went 12 right, four wrong ... am I starting to get the pulse of the season, or was it just dumb luck? Maybe this week will provide some evidence for which. My picks:

• Seattle Seahawks beat Arizona Cardinals
• Minnesota Vikings beat Pittsburgh Steelers
• Washington Commanders beat Atlanta Falcons
• Buffalo Bills beat New Orleans Saints
• Detroit Lions beat Cleveland Browns
• New England Patriots beat Carolina Panthers
• Los Angeles Chargers beat New York Giants
• Philadelphia Eagles beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Tennessee Titans beat Houston Texans*
• Los Angeles Rams beat Indianapolis Colts
• San Francisco 49ers beat Jacksonville Jaguars
• Kansas City Chiefs beat Baltimore Ravens*
• Chicago Bears beat Las Vegas Raiders
• Dallas Cowboys beat Green Bay Packers*
• Miami Dolphins beat New York Jets
• Denver Broncos beat Cincinnati Bengals

"Upset" picks -- which means outcomes that go against the majority picks among those playing ESPN's Pigskin Pick'em game as of the time I make my picks-- are marked with asterisks.

The "Texans beat the Titans" pick is pretty much a straight matter of comparing injury reports. Both teams are 0 and 3, but Texas is 0 and 3 and beat up badly. I was also leaning toward the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to upset the Philadelphia Eagles, but the injury reports changed my mind and I went with the crowd. So yeah, I'm starting to watch that information more closely.

The Chiefs v. Ravens pick is also an easy explain -- I don't ever pick the Chiefs to lose, period. That said, both teams are 1 and 2, so it's most likely just about whether Andy Reid or John Harbaugh is better at getting his team's shit together.

Cowboys vs. Packers? The Cowboys played well against the Eagles in Week 1, Prescott seems to be getting the job done at QB, and I suspect the Cowboys are in "beginning to gel" mode while the Packers are in "starting to have things come loose and fall off" mode. From what I'm reading, the consensus spread is Packers by 7, but I expect that even with CeeDee Lamb out, I think the Cowboys can over-perform.

If I change any picks, it will before the game in question kicks off and I will clearly mark changes as changes in updates to this post.

If you'd like to play too, here's an invite link (so far as I know I don't get anything out of it except a "leaderboard" of me and everyone I invite so we can compete for bragging rights).