Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Lies, Damned Lies, and (Government) Statistics

Erick Erickson:

Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced a downward revision in jobs created between March of 2024 and March of 2025. The decrease was 911,000 jobs. In other words, in 2024, the government over-estimated the numbers of jobs created by 911,000.

Well, no.


Just like we didn't -- couldn't -- know what the real numbers were when Donald Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics chief Erika McEntarfer for publishing numbers that made him look bad at the beginning of August.

Maybe McEntarfer cooked the numbers to make Trump look bad, maybe not, but Trump looked bad and so McEntarfer had to go.

As I wrote in the above-linked column:

The job of the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is to make the current administration look good, even if that requires putting lipstick on a pig.

Now, all of a sudden, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is publishing new numbers for precisely the period that lets Trump blame Joe Biden for every bit of negative economic news and perception in recent past, the present, and for some indeterminate stretch into the future.

Coincidence, or just a convenient ex post facto lipstick removal operation to please/assist the boss?

My impression is that the economy wasn't doing as well as Biden claimed in 2024, and that it's not doing as well as Trump claims now. Could I be wrong? Sure. But I don't treat BLS claims as objective evidence on the question.

No comments: