Monday, June 24, 2024

The "Young" Vote Is Seldom As Important As It Looks


That's the headline at The Hill. Pull quote: "The CBS News/YouGov poll found 61 percent of likely voters younger than 30 surveyed support Biden while 38 percent support Trump."

But then we get down into the story ...

"However, only 66 percent of this group [registered voters under 30] said they will vote in the 2024 election, while 94 percent of those 65 and older said they would vote.

The "young" vote would be a big deal ... if candidates could find a way to get that vote out.

Here's what voter turnout by age group looks like historically:

Statistic: Voter turnout rates* among selected age groups in U.S. presidential elections from 1964 to 2020 | Statista
Find more statistics at Statista

I doubt that either the 66% or 94% "I'm gonna vote" responses will accurately reflect real turnout. I'll be surprised if the "young" vote tops 50% or the "old" vote tops 75%.

The poll also doesn't include any third party / independent candidates, so it's even less useful as a predictive tool.

If anyone running figures out how to get those younger voters to the polling place, it could make the difference. But that never seems to actually happen.

No comments: