"Trump World is looking to squash this."
"Alex, what is Nikki Haley's 'momentum?'"
According to 538's latest polling information, Donald Trump is up on Haley by 54 points in North Carolina, 29 points in South Carolina (where Haley used to be governor), and anywhere from 49 points to 52 points nationally. One outlier poll does show her within four points in New Hampshire, but I'm not really buying it.
Now, here's a caveat:
Back in 2016, I assumed that one of several factors in polling inaccuracy was down had to some people not wanting to admit they supported Trump over Hillary Clinton (there were other factors, such as Trump enthusing rural voters who weren't showing up on pollsters' radar screens because 1) they were infrequent voters, and therefore not the "likely" voters pollsters target and 2) the pollsters were still too landline-oriented and not reaching cord-cutters).
This year, as in 2020, I suspect Trump's poll numbers may be slightly inflated by some Republicans not wanting a ration of shit for not supporting him and therefore saying they support him.
But that phenomenon is probably nowhere near the 50% range.
Something YUGE will have to happen for Trump to lose the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. I'm not sure what that YUGE thing might be, but whatever it is, even if it's going to happen it hasn't happened yet.
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