Nevada (6 electoral votes) went for Biden in 2020, but only by about 2.4%. But every January poll listed at 538 has Trump up by anywhere from 2% to 8%, with RFK Jr. taking 5% in one poll and 12% in the other that list him. At the moment, I provisionally expect it to go Democratic again for two reasons. First, the Democrats are very good at getting out the Clark County vote. Second, I'm assuming for the moment that RFK Jr. gets on ballots, campaigns hard, and hurts Trump more than he hurts Biden.
Arizona (11 electoral votes) also went Democratic in 2020, but only by about 0.3%. The only January poll listed at 538 has Trump up by 3% with no RFK Jr. factored in. Late 2023 polling has him doing better (up 6% to 8%), with RFK Jr. knocking down 10%. That polling suggest that so far, RFK hurts Biden worse than he hurts Trump, at least in that state. I expect Arizona's US Senate race to hurt Trump, though. Kari Lake is not someone you want volubly on your side if you're interest in winning. On the other hand, if Kyrsten Sinema does run for re-election as an independent, God only knows what the upward coattails will look like. At the moment, I'm not even going to hazard a guess what happens there.
Georgia (16 electoral votes) went for Biden by a sliver (0.23%) in 2020 and Trump is polling strongly there (up 7-9%), with RFK Jr. at 8% in the one poll that includes him. If I had to pick an outcome today, I'd say Trump wins it this time around. But I guess we'll see.
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes) went for Biden by, again, a nose (1.17%) in 2020. January polling there is very mixed, ranging from Trump up by 3 to Biden up by 8, with RFK knocking down 7% to 11%. At the moment, I'd say this one looks favorable for Biden again, mainly due to turnout/organization. It's going to be interesting.
Michigan 15 electoral votes) was less of a squeaker for Biden in 2020 -- he carried the state by nearly 3%. The polls are, again, mixed, with Trump up by as much as 12 points and Biden up by 4 in one of them. The Trump +12 poll is an outlier -- it includes Liz Cheney polling the same 8% as RFK Jr. does in a different poll, and she clearly takes her bite right out of Biden's ass. Not even a tentative prediction on this one.
And, finally, Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). Another squeaker in 2020, with Biden carrying it by 0.63%. The GOP is holding its national convention in Milwaukee this year and I expect it to get more resources from the Trump campaign than it did in 2016 (when he won it because Hillary Clinton couldn't be bothered to really work the state) or 2020. The two polls taken in January show him with a 5% to 8% lead, and RFK Jr. taking 10% in one of them. No firm prediction -- in fact, let me be clear that I'm not predicting any states this early -- but it's not looking great for Biden there.
With 77 electoral votes obviously "in play," and really more, with a plausibly disruptive independent campaign, this year's going to be hard one to handicap.
I doubt we've seen RFK Jr.'s high point, it's too early to tell how far he'll fall from that high point once the knives really come out, and while I'm willing to provisionally assume he hurts Trump more than he hurts Biden, the polling data seems to disagree with that assumption.
If RFK Jr. runs a strong campaign and his votes tend toward the "Trump as second choice" demographic, there will be other states in play come November. I'm thinking specifically of North Carolina, but Texas and Florida could become at least competitive enough to eat up Republican money and attention that will become unavailable for Pennsylvania and Michigan.
See you in February, if nothing requiring a blog post happens in the next 6 1/2 hours or so!
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