Election 2024: The First Big Test ...

... and probably not so much a test of the candidates as of the polls.

Next Tuesday's Iowa caucus (Republican version) is not really much like the stories you hear about Democrats getting together and standing in various corners, then shuffling around to form new groups as candidates are eliminated and all that kind of thing.

Think of it more as "a primary that one must be physically present to participate in." Republican voters will gather at caucus locations at a set time and cast secret ballots for their presidential nomination candidates of choice.

It's not quite a good fit to the "likely voter" methodology pollsters tend to use. There's at least a little more of a "highly motivated or not quite so motivated" factor at play than in a primary where the voters can vote early, or by mail, or at any time from morning to evening.

538's polling page has Donald Trump up on his nearest competitor (Nikki Haley in three polls, Ron DeSantis in one) by anywhere from 34 to 43 points in January polling. In none of the four polls does Trump knock down less than 52%. In none of them does his closest competitor top 20%.

I suspect the results will differ from the polling, to Trump's detriment, but not by a whole lot, and for the same reason that Trump won the 2016 election: Enthusiasm.

Trump's going to win the caucus. Everyone knows Trump's going to win the caucus. Therefore, a Trump voter who walks out of the house and sees a flat tire on his truck isn't going to feel that urgent a need to fix it and get his ass to the caucus ASAP.

But because Trump is going to win the caucus, and because everyone knows Trump is going to win the caucus, the other candidates' supporters are basically voting to "send a message" that there's a sizeable contingent of anti-Trump, or at least non-Trump, Republicans. And people who want to send a message, even in losing, are more motivated than people who know their guy is going to win whether they show up or not.

I think Trump will come out of the thing with a plurality, not a majority, and that Haley, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy will all three punch a little bit above their polling-indicated weight.

Of course, I could be completely wrong.