One of These Things is Not Like the Other

Joseph Solis-Mullen at the Libertarian Institute:

For decades Washington has advertised its air and naval supremacy as the indispensable guarantor of global order. Recent events have shown this to be little but increasingly expensive theater. The 2026 Iran War has paused not with Iranian capitulation but in a cascade of humiliations that have permanently altered the strategic landscape. Washington’s vaunted power-projection capabilities proved unable to shield even its own forward bases, depleted critical munitions stockpiles, and ultimately ceded effective control of the Strait of Hormuz to Tehran. These lessons will not be lost on Beijing or Taipei.  If the United States cannot impose its will on Iran, or previously the Houthis, it cannot credibly claim it could defend Taiwan against the far more formidable People’s Liberation Army.

Disclaimer: I am a non-interventionist. In my view, the US has no business meddling in China-Taiwan affairs. This isn't about what I think the US should do; it's about what the US can do.

What Solis-Mullen seems to be missing is that in a Chinese attack on Taiwan, an analogy to the current war would have China as the equivalent of the US and Taiwan as the equivalent of Iran. It would be China attempting to project force to achieve particular objectives as "victory" conditions, and it would be Taiwan that only had to frustrate those objectives to "win."

So far as I can tell, the only material assistance Iran is thought to have received from allies has been some missile attacks from Yemen on shipping, and supposedly some satellite targeting assistance from Russia.

Suppose that (despite a dearth of amphibious troop transports) China decided to attempt to invade, conquer, occupy, and annex Taiwan tomorrow. Taiwan would certainly reasonably expect at least some material support not just from the US, but from Japan and possibly other allies. That material support would likely be more robust than Iran has received. Satellite targeting assistance would be the least of it.

As ugly as both the Iran war and the war in Ukraine are, each has a silver lining in that Xi Jinping is presumably looking at how they've gone for the US and Russia and not wanting that kind of thing for his own regime.