Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Week 12 NFL Picks

Ah, Week 11 turned out to be a good one for me: I picked 11 of 14 games correctly and picked up 98.4 points (versus the FiveThirtyEight model's 89.7 points) in FiveThirtyEight's NFL Forecasting Game. I'm still doing terribly for the season with a score of -38.5 points versus the model's 216.9 points, but at least I'm in the top 59% of players ... for the moment. The games I blew: I picked the Vikings to beat the Cowboys, the Bears to beat the Falcons, and the Giants to beat the Lions. The model picked the Falcons game correctly, but also blew the other two games, as well as mis-picking the Broncos to beat the Raiders, which I got right.

This week's picks:

Buffalo Bills beat Detroit Lions -- 100%
Dallas Cowboys beat New York Giants -- 91%
New England Patriots beat Minnesota Vikings -- 53%*
Washington Commanders beat Atlanta Falcons -- 53%
Jacksonville Jaguars beat Baltimore Ravens -- 53%*
New York Jets beat Chicago Bears -- 71%
Tennessee Titans beat Cincinnati Bengals -- 79%
Denver Broncos beat Carolina Panthers -- 53%*
Miami Dolphins beat Houston Texans -- 100%
Cleveland Browns beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 53%*
Los Angeles Chargers beat Arizona Cardinals -- 59%*
Seattle Seahawks beat Las Vegas Raiders -- 59%
Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Rams -- 100%
San Francisco 49ers beat New Orleans Saints -- 83%
Philadelphia Eagles beat Green Bay Packers -- 91%
Indianapolis Colts beat Pittsburgh Steelers -- 73%

Asterisks mark games where I disagree with the FiveThirtyEight model on outcome (most or all of my picks assign different percentages to likelihood of outcome). If I make any changes to my picks, those changes will be made before game time and noted in updates to this post.

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