Friday, November 11, 2022

Senate Prediction Update

So, how are my October "final predictions" of US Senate "tossup" states faring so far?

In Pennsylvania, I predicted that Democrat John Fetterman would defeat Republican Mehmet Oz (no incumbent, open seat.

 In Wisconsin, I predicted that incumbent Republican Ron Johnson would defeat Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes.

 In Georgia, I predicted that the election would go to a runoff between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

 In Arizona, where I predicted that incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly would defeat Republican challenger Blake Masters, Reason now reports that Kelly's lead in the vote count has become insurmountable per Cook Political Report.

? In Nevada, incumbent Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto has closed the gap between her and Republican challenger Adam Laxalt to less than 1% with the outstanding votes mostly coming from Democratic-leaning Clark County.

So I'm four for five now, and looking pretty good to go five for five.

Wish I was this good at predicting NFL outcomes. And that online sports betting was legal in Florida.

If Cortez Masto does win Nevada, I don't expect big GOP funding for Herschel Walker in the Georgia runoff. Even if he wins, that won't get the Republicans a Senate majority, and there are big down sides to giving the Democrats six years of great scandal/mockery opportunities vis a vis US Senator Herschel Walker.

If Laxalt does pull off an upset, well, then, it's on. Not that 51 seats would really give the GOP any more power than it already gets with 40+ seats to use for filibustering, especially since a handful of Republicans will always peel off if they have "centrist" reasons to. But "give us a Senate majority" is good read meat to keep the Republican base motivated.

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