Thursday, November 10, 2022

Abortion as a Factor in the Midterms

According to an NBC News exit poll, 27% of voters ranked abortion as the top issue going into the midterms, and their votes went for Democrats over Republicans by a 3-to-1 margin.

That impact is not as big as it sounds from just citing those numbers, but it's still huge.

Why is it not as big as it sounds?

Well, it's a safe bet that almost all of the people who ranked it as their top issue and voted for Democrats or Republicans would have voted the way they did anyway ... if they voted at all.

Where the issue of abortion had its real impact was at the margins, on turnout.

Let's be extremely expansive here and say that of the voters polled, 90% always vote, and 10% came out to vote this time only because of abortion. The numbers are probably smaller than that.

So, that would translate to 2.7% increased turnout just because of abortion, with a 2.025% turnout bump for Democrats and a 0.675%turnout bump for Republicans. The differential: 1.35%.

In races that otherwise are very tight -- for example, last time I checked, pro-life US Representative Lauren Boebert (R-CO) trailed pro-choice Democratic challenger Adam Fritsch by 0.02% in a nail-biter of a race -- abortion could well make the difference even if the numbers are smaller than that 10% bump I suggested..

It may decide the US Senate outcome in Nevada an the US Senate run-off in Georgia, too.

No comments: