Thursday, November 17, 2022

Week 11 NFL Picks

Well, another no good, very bad week for me in the FiveThirtyEight NFL Forecasting Game ... mostly from the late games. I mean, who would have expected the Eagles to lose to the Commanders? I ended up with -54.9 points, including losing 75 points on the Eagles (I picked them 100%). I can take comfort in the fact that the only bad bet I made that FiveThirtyEight's model didn't make was picking the Chargers to beat the Rams, and I only lost 3.1 points on that since I only put their chances at 53%.

This week's picks:

Tennessee Titans beat Green Bay Packers -- 67%
Baltimore Ravens beat Carolina Panthers -- 91%
Chicago Bears beat Atlanta Falcons -- 53%*
Buffalo Bills beat Cleveland Browns-- 91%
New York Giants beat Detroit Lions -- 91%
New Orleans Saints beat Los Angeles Rams -- 61%
New England Patriots beat New York Jets -- 91%
Philadelphia Eagles beat Baltimore Colts -- 67%
Washington Commanders beat Houston Texans -- 71%
Las Vegas Raiders beat Denver Broncos -- 53%*
Cincinnati Bengals beat Pittsburgh Steelers-- 59%
Minnesota Vikings beat Dallas Cowboys -- 61%
Kansas City Chiefs beat Los Angeles Chargers -- 100%
San Francisco 49ers beat Arizona Cardinals -- 59%

Asterisks mark the games where I disagree with FiveThirtyEight's model (although my percentage predictions differ from the model's on all games). If I make any changes (based on e.g. injury reports), they'll be before the games start and I'll note them in updates below.

No comments: