Friday, July 31, 2009

Election 2012, GOP handicapping update

The latest adjustments to my GOP 2012 presidential nomination odds line:

I've downgraded Jeb Bush -- the Tucker Carlson interview was good, but I've heard nothing from him since, and the early game is important. Down 5% to 10%.

Ditto Fred Thompson. His candidacy has been pretty much notional on my part, and the longer it stays that way the less likely it is to become reality, or to get anywhere if it does become reality. Down 10% to 5%.

Tim Pawlenty is definitely starting to pull up into the pack. He's been elected vice chair of the Republican Governors Association. He's making forceful speeches to the RNC and chumming it up with party leaders in key states. He's definitely on the trail. See Matthew Berger at The Faster Times for an argument on his behalf.

I still don't see Pawlenty as a likely nominee, but he's got more mojo than I initially credited him with and he's busting his ass to make himself a contender. Up 10% to 11%.

Newt Gingrich gains 5% on "wow, did you see the size of that machine?" grounds.

No, I'm not downgrading Mike Huckabee, his less than stellar fundraising efforts notwithstanding. His TV and radio exposure more than make up for the gap between his take and the war chests of Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin. They're concentrating on raising money to make themselves look good later. He's making himself look good now. He's still the man to beat. 35% and steady.

I'm still thinking that this will come down to Gingrich or Huckabee, with Pawlenty in good shape for the VP slot.


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