Saturday, January 05, 2008

Wyoming Caucus: Romney 8, Paul 0

I picked Ron Paul to win the Wyoming GOP caucus today ... and it was a really stupid pick. Romney romped.

Mea culpa -- I didn't do my research. I assumed that the caucus was open to Republican voters in general (by registration or self-identification), like the Iowa caucus. I thought Paul had a chance because normal Wyomingans (Wyomingians? Wyomingites?) supposedly fall more toward the libertarian side of the political spectrum. Turns out that this "caucus" is merely a vote of ward heelers party officials, who could hardly be expected to go for an "anti-party-establishment" candidate like Paul.

Do the Wyoming results mean anything in the big picture? Not really. While neither Iowa nor New Hampshire can be considered snapshots of the American electorate, at least they're snapshots of their own electorates. Wyoming isn't even that. It's just a party-insider log roll, and whatever dissident elements exist in the Wyoming GOP machine apparently decided on a meaningless banzai charge for Duncan Hunter (one delegate) rather than for more credible "anti-establishmentarians" like Paul, Huckabee or McCain.

The Wyoming result does show that Rudy Giuliani has lost not only his mo with real voters (as Iowa demonstrated), but his darling status with the party elite as well. If Giuliani drops out before New Hampshire and throws his support to McCain, he might be able to get a sinecure. I doubt if he can draw the veep slot for it since he's obviously falling to tail-end Charlie anyway, but maybe some token secretaryship with good graft opportunities. Right up his alley.

[N.B. I'm sure some of you are asking yourself if Kn@ppster is going soft on Ron Paul. The answer? No, not really ... but I do hope he can break through the GOP's pro-big-government party machinery, appeal directly to those GOP voters who favor the smaller government their party promises but never delivers, and hasten the demise of the GOP -- which is, at this point, beyond being able to lead, follow or get the hell out of the way.]

Friday, January 04, 2008

Because They Can, Springfield edition

If you've never been inside Pythian Castle in Springfield, Missouri, take my word for it: It's a grand old building. It went up in the early 20th century, was taken over by the military in WWII, and as of the late 1980s it was used by my US Marine Corps Reserve unit for classes and other activities. At that time, it was much-neglected by the "public-private partnership" (read: taxpayer money hole) leasing it from the military, but you could tell that it had once been beautiful and could be again if someone cared to make it that way.

Someone did, and that someone got lucky: The military put the building up for auction, and there were few bids. My recollection is that it sold for around $5,000 ... and that's when the problems started, with wailing and gnashing of teeth about how historic it was and how it needed to be "preserved." In politicalese, of course, this usually means something else. We'll talk about what in a minute.

The building was resold in 2003 to Tamara Finocchiaro and M. J. Page, who wanted to put it back to its historical uses: It had a ballroom that they wanted to operate as a ballroom. It had a theatre that they wanted to operate as a theatre. And they were not just willing, but intent upon, restoring it structurally and aesthetically, to its former glory.

Four years later, the new owners are still bogged down in the swamp that is Springfield, Missouri's city government.

There's a code violation. You have to fix it.

Wait, you can't fix that code violation without a permit! No, we won't give you one of those.

You're changing the use -- the last use was as a rat zoo for OACAC and as a classroom for teaching Marines about sexually transmitted diseases and how to jab themselves with atropine if Saddam opens a can of sarin on them. You'll have to get it rezoned if you want to use its ballroom as a ballroom or its theatre as a theatre. No, we won't rezone it.

The building is unsafe. How do we know it's unsafe? Why, because we want it to be unsafe, and because we say it's unsafe, and because we're the government, see? No, there's no way for you to make it safe, because to do that you'd have to satisfy us, and we're not going to be satisfied, see?

Now, for the translation from politicalese into English:

Someone in, or with strong connections to, Springfield's city bureaucracy either wants that building, or wants the land it's on, or doesn't want it competing with a business he owns, or has some grand political plan for it that little things like property rights are in the way of, or wants a bribe to break the logjam.

That kind of game isn't unusual in Springfield. When I lived there, I often heard it referred to as "The Carlson Pivot." That's not to say that the right honorable mayor is the grifter behind this particular obscenity, of course. It could be any of a dozen. But that's almost certainly what's going on here.

The best way to handle this kind of thing is to

- Mobilize some citizens to make an issue of it. Roaches scurry for the corner when you turn on a light in the room. Pythian Castle is probably not the only iron this swindler has in the fire, and he'll give up one thing before he'll risk having his whole gravyboat overturned.

- Get some organizations to publicly commit to holding events at Pythian Castle, when and if it's open for business. If the city council is publicly cast in the position of blocking convention and tourist dollars from coming into town, they'll trip over each other running to set things right. I suspect that Libertarian city councilman Doug Burlison is already all over this. Let's help the other council members see their way clear to getting behind him.

I'll get things started -- as a member of the Missouri Libertarian Party's executive committee, I'll be making (or supporting, if one of our Springfield-area members makes it) a motion at our next meeting to negotiate terms for holding a state convention at Pythian Castle when and if it is allowed to open for business.

Iowa caucus: Hot washup

So, how did I do with my predictions? Not very well. Here are the actual results.

I thought Romney would pull it out and beat Huckabee -- he completely tanked instead.

I didn't think that McCain would do well at all, seeing as how he has been an Iowa scoffer/semi-non-participant for two presidential campaigns in a row. But, with 96% of precincts reporting, he's in a dead heat with Thompson for third. I had McCain picked to be around where Giuliani actually ended up. I thought Thompson would be contesting 3rd/4th place with Ron Paul. Paul's firmly in 5th place at ~10%.

The biggest surprise for me was how poorly Giuliani fared. A lot of GOP pundits are going to be telling you "don't stick a fork in him ... he's not done." They're wrong. He is done.

Giuliani's plan was to lie low in Iowa and New Hampshire, coasting to third or fourth place finishes but showing a firm base of support -- 10-15%; then open up the can of whipass in Florida. He outsmarted himself: Florida might have waited around for him if he had remained in the top tier, but he's in Duncan Hunter low-single-digit territory now, and it's tough to come back from that when you were the alleged frontrunner. His Iowa outcome kills his already shaky New Hampshire third place prospects, and by January 29th the word in Florida is going to be "Rudy who?"

Florida is full of voters who, being older themselves, are unlikely to hold age against a candidate they otherwise respect. The big beneficiary of Giuliani's early breakdown will be John Mccain.

Speaking of which, I first (almost as a joke, but still) predicted that McCain would secure the GOP presidential nomination (and likely the presidency itself) on May 29th, 2007, when his campaign was at its lowest point, and have been seriously predicting that since at least as long ago as October. It's nice to see the pundits catching up with me the last week or so.

McCain will probably take 1st or 2nd place in New Hampshire (Romney's not dead yet, but he's lying on the ground twitching and bleeding -- New Hampshire will be his last hurrah). McCain will do well in South Carolina, and he'll friggin' romp in Michigan and Florida. He very well may run the table on Super Duper Tuesday (I had him picked to win several big states that day, but it turns out I was under- rather than over-estimating him). Knock off the brokered convention jabber. I predict that McCain will secure an absolute majority of convention delegates before Memorial Day at the latest, and possibly as early as February. Running mate? Colin Powell. And no, I'm not kidding.

On the Democratic side, I did poorly as well. I pegged Hillary's percentage, but didn't project that percentage putting her in third place, or Obama breaking out 8 points ahead of her. It's too early to call her dead in the water, but Obama and Edwards both get a big boost out of Iowa; she doesn't.

OK, back to the GOP side, because we have to talk about Ron Paul. He didn't do as well as I predicted, but he exceeded his polling numbers. He got 10% ... Bill Clinton polled 3% in the Iowa Democratic Caucus in 1992. No, I'm not saying Paul is going to pull it out and get the GOP nomination, but I think he did well enough to keep his activist base energized. He has a shot at coming in 2nd or 3rd in New Hampshire. After Super Duper Tuesday, he'll almost certainly be clearly out of the running ... for the GOP nomination. So, I'm adjusting the odds of his seeking (and getting) the Libertarian Party's presidential nomination up from 95% to 97%.