Friday, May 01, 2026

I Expect Some Kind of Combat in the Persian Gulf Today

I could be wrong, of course, but here's why I expect it:

  • While the war was wholly, completely, and unquestionably illegal from the start absent a congressional declaration of war, there's a fiction under the "War Powers Resolution" through which a president gets a 60-day free pass to do whatever he wants.
  • That 60-day period ends today.
  • The administration is claiming that the 60-day clock stopped with the declaration of a ceasefire.
  • It's in the Iranian regime's interest to establish that no, the clock hasn't stopped because combat operations are ongoing, and the best way to do that is to do something requiring a US military response.

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