Thursday, December 29, 2022

Week 17 NFL Picks

Week 16 wasn't good to me. It wasn't terribly bad to me, but I did go for -7.6 points, with only eight correct picks on 16 games. That leaves me at 82.6 points for the season, still in the top 2/3 of players in the FiveThirtyEight NFL Forecasting Game.

Week 17 picks:

Dallas Cowboys beat Tennessee Titans -- 100%
Arizona Cardinals beat Atlanta Falcons -- 53%*
Carolina Panthers beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 53%*
Detroit Lions beat Chicago Bears -- 71%
Washington Commanders beat Cleveland Browns -- 53%
Kansas City Chiefs beat Denver Broncos -- 100%
New York Giants beat Indianapolis Colts -- 53%
Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans -- 100%
New England Patriots beat Miami Dolphins -- 61%
Philadelphia Eagles beat New Orleans Saints -- 100%
Seattle Seahawks beat New York Jets -- 67%
San Francisco 49ers beat Las Vegas Raiders -- 71%
Los Angeles Chargers beat Los Angeles Rams -- 79%
Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers -- 91%
Baltimore Ravens beat Pittsburgh Steelers -- 67%
Cincinnati Bengals beat Buffalo Bills -- 61%

All of my picks differ from the FiveThirtyEight models in terms of percentage odds. Asterisks next to picks indicate where I disagree with the model on who actually wins/loses a game. If I change any of my picks, those changes will be made before kickoff of the game in question, and will appear as updates to this post.

Update, 12/29, 9:35am: I made a big move on tonight's game, upgrading the Cowboys' chances of defeating the Titans from 61% to 100%. The reason: Injury reports. The Titans would be an upset versus the Cowboys right now anyway, but at the moment they've got EIGHT players out with injuries (including QB Ryan Tennehill) and a ninth  listed as "doubtful" for tonight's game. A Titans win would fall into the "miraculous" category, so I decided to go whole-hog.

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