Wednesday, December 14, 2022

NFL Week 15 Picks

As previously mentioned, I managed to get through Week 14 with neither a gain nor loss in points, and am currently performing (for the season so far) better than 66% of players in the FiveThirtyEight NFL Forecasting Game.

Week 15 picks

San Francisco 49ers beat Seattle Seahawks -- 53%
Minnesota Vikings beat Indianapolis Colts -- 71%
Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns -- 53%
Miami Dolphins beat Buffalo Bills -- 53%*
Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints -- 53%*
Jacksonville Jaguars beat Dallas Cowboys -- 53%*
New York Jets beat Detroit Lions -- 53%
Kansas City Chiefs beat Houston Texans -- 100%
Philadelphia Eagles beat Chicago Bears-- 91%
Carolina Panthers beat Pittsburgh Steelers -- 67%
Arizona Cardinals beat Denver Broncos -- 53%*
New England Patriots beat Las Vegas Raiders -- 53%*
Cincinnati Bengals beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 79%
Tennessee Titans beat Los Angeles Chargers -- 59%*
Washington Commanders beat New York Giants -- 61%
Los Angeles Rams beat Green Bay Packers-- 53%*

Asterisks indicate my disagreements with the FiveThirtyEight model's predictions, and there are quite a few of them this week. I'd say the two real "upsets" I'm predicting are the Dolphins to beat the Bills and the Jaguars to beat the Cowboys.

The former may just be wishful thinking, but I've got a feeling that 1) the Dolphins are going to be all in to redeem themselves after their Sunday night prime time embarrassment, and 2) the Bills are not in top form at the moment.

The latter is almost certainly wishful thinking, but after the Cowboys' near-loss to the Texans last week and the Jaguars really showing some stuff versus the Titans, I've once again got a feeling here. The Cowboys are not necessarily on their way down, but the Jags are definitely starting to put some things together this year.

Any changes to my picks will 1) be made before game time, and 2) be noted in updates to this post.

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