Friday, December 09, 2022

Final Senate Prediction Outcome: Six for Five

No, I did not issue predictions for the 435 US House races, the 36 state and three territorial gubernatorial elections, etc.

I stuck to five the "toss-up" races for US Senate, because I prefer focusing on one thing and actually trying to figure out what's going to happen and why, rather than taking on everything and just guessing.

My six predictions concerning those five races were all correct. That is, I correctly predicted the November 8 general election outcome in all five, and correctly predicted this week's runoff outcome in Georgia.

Given the scope I limit myself to, I think I do a fairly good job. I've predicted 48 of 50 states (and the overall winner) correctly three presidential elections in a row.

Should I broaden my focus? I've thought about it. But covering/predicting 435 US House races, 50 quadrennial gubernatorial races, etc., in a "don't guess, rationally predict" way would be a fairly major investment of time, and probably an investment financially as well (among other things, I'd want to subscribe to Cook Political Report, which costs $350 per year) ... and I think it might move away from "fun" and toward "job," which I don't object to in principle, but I do like me some fun. 

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