Week 7 NFL Picks

Last week, I picked 7 of 14 games correctly, the Chiefs (my only 100% pick) won ... and I still ended up 32.8 points in the hole, for a season score of -236 points, in only the 13th percentile of players in FiveThirtyEight's NFL Forecasting Game.

How did that happen? I bet bigger than FiveThirtyEight's model on games that turned out to be upsets. The Bears beat the Patriots and the Seahawks beat the Chargers. Both the model and I picked the Buccaneers to beat the Panthers, with the same 79% certainty. We both picked Green Bay to beat Washington, the one case in which I bet smaller than FiveThirtyEight. I lost small points where I disagreed with the model and lost (I had the Broncos beating the Jets and New Orleans beating Arizona).

Hey, wait a minute ... the Carolina Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? Hell freezeth over. It wasn't even close -- 21-3. This was a bizarre week.

So anyway, Week 7 picks:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Baltimore Ravens-- 53% (I generally don't bet against Tom Brady, but after last week I won't be betting big for him)
Jacksonville Jaguars beat Denver Broncos -- 53%*
Minnesota Vikings beat Arizona Cardinals -- 91%
Atlanta Falcons beat Carolina Panthers -- 53%
Dallas Cowboys beat Chicago Bears -- 91%
Miami Dolphins beat  Detroit Lions -- 91%
New England Patriots beat New York Jets -- 59%*
Las Vegas Raiders beat New Orleans Saints -- 53%
Philadelphia Eagles beat Pittsburgh Steelers -- 100%
Tennessee Titans beat Houston Texans -- 100%
Seattle Seahawks beat New York Giants -- 53%
Los Angeles Rams beat San Francisco 49ers -- 71%
Indianapolis Colts beat Washington Commanders -- 61%
Buffalo Bills beat Green Bay Packers -- 100%
Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns -- 91%

Asterisks mark the games where I disagree with FiveThirtyEight's model.

As you can see, there are some 100% calls in there. I want to see if I can make up some ground. If I'm right on all three calls, I will pick up 75 points on them. If I'm wrong on all three calls, I'll be down 225 points on them. But this season is in the shitter anyway, so I'm game to take some chances.

Latest opinions:

• The Packers were over-rated at the start of the season and they're going downhill. They're not going to be a great team again until Aaron Rodgers retires and a new coach comes in.
• It's time for Tom Brady to retire for real. He's got family problems, he's having injury problems, and even if he's still the GOAT until Mahomes hits his stride, he's starting to embarrass himself and cost his team.
• My Chiefs are playing damn good football. I expect the AFC championship to come down to them vs. the Bills. When it does, I'll predict 100% that the Chiefs win, pass go, collect $200, and proceed to Glendale for the Super Bowl. But that's my heart, not my head, talking. It will be an epic matchup. Again. NFC championship? Looks like the Eagles from here, but things could change.