Friday, January 13, 2012

It's All in the Crosstabs


English: Former U.S. Representative and Speake...Image via WikipediaA new South Carolina GOP primary poll has Mitt Romney performing better than in the last one -- but with Newt Gingrich still within the margin of error, albeit a little less close. The top line is Romney 29%, Gingrich 25%.

And remember, the top line only tells us so much. It's Romney 29%, Gingrich 25% among "likely GOP primary voters," but take a look at the crosstabs:

  • Among self-described Tea Party supporters, Gingrich leads Romney 28-24.
  • Among self-described evangelical Christians, Gingrich leads Romney 40-13.
  • Even among self-described Republicans, as opposed to independents, it's 29-29 (and among independents, Ron Paul leads Romney 29-27).
Among the groups very likely to vote next Saturday, Gingrich is either even with, or ahead of, Romney.

Rasmussen has new data, too, but they're only showing the top line to non-subscribers.
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