Desultory In-Progress Debate Notes

9:01pm Central Time: Jesus Tap-Dancing Christ ... there are "major party" presidential candidates running on a platform of sending troops back into Iraq?


9:05pm: Obama wrapped up Iraq on the Bush timetable. He "surged" Afghanistan, amped up the drone war in Pakistan, launched a renewed covert war in Somalia, honchoed the takedown of bin Laden ... there's just no way to get around his "national security" flank from the hawk direction. But a bunch of these bozos are trying. As usual, the only one talking a lick of sense on foreign policy is Ron Paul.

9:07pm: Santorum notices that the Iranian people think America is cool -- then says what we need to do is keep trying to change that. Because the best way to overthrow an unfriendly regime is to do everything you can to keep its popular support level at the highest level possible.

9:13pm: Riffing on break commentary -- 53% of Americans support ending marriage apartheid. Republican candidates: "Fuck'em."

9:15pm: Newt Gingrich thinks that every issue is a "very big, very important topic." Ask him about his bunions and he'll roll out a plan for massive revisioning of NIH.

9:17pm: Mitt wants to get rid of all the "loopholes and deductions" that keep the poor politicians so destitute. Santorum wants to get rid of all the deductions except the ones that are actually there, so that it can be 1955 in Pennsylvania's factories again.

9:20pm: Mitt and taxes, sittin' in a tree ... Says we're "inches from not being a free economy any more." Because, you know, back in the days of Nixon's wage and price controls, things were so much freer.

9:21pm: Oh, shit, Paul's giving an economics lecture. Everything he's saying is absolutely right. He also sounds like he's about to scream "get off my lawn!" at any second.

9:23pm: That one guy from Texas, the other one, Rick somethin' or other, is flapping his gums. He's got the whole "get off my lawn" tone thing going, too. Someone plug in the shrill-meter.

9:24pm: Huntsman's glad someone's actually letting him speak this time. Mitt's rambling. He seems very much off his game tonight. He's worried he'll fall below 40% next Tuesday. He's right to be worried.

9:27pm: Newt thinks that Obama is a radical European socialist now. Quite a transformation from Kenyan anti-colonialist, huh? But now he's trying to make Romney into Obama, and I admit Romney looks more like Switzerland than Swaziland. Santorum looks ... lost.

9:28pm: Santorum will "use the language of bringing people together." As long as they're heterosexual and there's no contraception involved, of course.

9:30pm: Anonymous is ... China.

9:35pm: Huntsman: A trade war is a bad idea. Mitt: China will swerve first.

My partial impression (I came in way late): So far I'd say that Huntsman is picking up some points (that break into Chinese was gold), Santorum and Romney are cratering, Newt and Paul are holding their own, and Perry should have gone ahead and dropped out last Tuesday.

OK, wow, it's over. Or are there closing statements still to come? If that's it, I'm thinking the bloom came off Santorum's rose in a pretty big way already, but that the big loser was Romney. He sounded shrill and defensive, the whole time I was watching. Yes, it's over. Talking heads now. Buh bye.

Happy Xmas, War is Over

In theory, anyway.

In fact, thousands of mercenaries -- er, "security contractors" -- remain in Iraq, working with or for 10-20,000 allegedly civilian US government employees.

Oh, and drones. Supposedly just in Kurdish northern Iraq, but don't be surprised when Pakistan-like "13 killed in alleged US strike" stories start coming out of the country next year.

Old wars don't die any more. They just fade off the front page.

Wikileaks "Iraqi War Logs" reveal chemical weapons finds?

From the Wikileaks "Iraq War Logs" --

ATTK ON ___ BUNKER ___ BY TF -___ IVO : ___ INJ/DAMAGE
2005-08-20 04:51:00

AT 1015D IVO ___, A TF -___ PATROL CONDUCTING ROUTINE RECONNAISSANCE OF THE ___ CHEMICAL COMPLEX VIC ___ IDENTIFIED AN ATTEMPTED BREACH OF BUNKER ___. PATROL REPORTS A LARGE EXPLOSION HAD BREACHED THE TWO LAYERS OF DIRT AND THE EXTERIOR CONCRETE ___. INTERIOR CONCRETE ___ REMAINS INTACT. TF -___ IS ON SITE AND IS ASSUMING ___ SECURITY MISSION. PATROL HAS INCREASED ___ LEVEL FROM READY TO ZERO. INITIAL ASSESSMENT IS NEGLIGIBLE RISK TO WARNED EXPOSED SOLDIERS AT THIS TIME. FURTHER EFFECTS ON AREA OR OTHER IMPACTS ARE BEING ASSESSED AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL ASSETS ISO TF ___ BEING COORDINATED. UPDATE THE BUNKER CONTAINED NON PERSISTENT NERVE ___ THAT WAS ___ INERT BY ___, MUSTARD AND BLOOD ___. TF - ___ ALARMS AND REMAIN ___ OF BREACH.

My educated^* guess at the unredacted penultimate sentence:

UPDATE THE BUNKER CONTAINED NON PERSISTENT NERVE AGENT THAT WAS RENDERED INERT BY SUPER-TROPICAL BLEACH, MUSTARD AND BLOOD AGENT.

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* I think "educated" is a reasonable claim. "Expert" would be pushing it. I completed military courses in Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Survey/Monitor and Decontamination (first by correspondence and then, circa 1992, a two-week course under the aegis of the 3rd Marine Air Wing at MCAS El Toro, CA) and did a stint or two (both before and after that school) as NCO in charge of continuing training on the subject for a Marine Reserve infantry company.

"The American Combat Mission in Iraq Has Ended ..."

And if you believe that, I've got a bridge you might be interested in buying. It connects my oceanfront properties in Kansas (also for sale) to the magical island where I keep my leprechaun-sourced gold hoard.

The body of victim is seen on the ground of bomb attacks site in Baghdad September 5, 2010. Up to five suicide bombers, some armed with rifles, tried to storm an army base in Baghdad on Sunday, killing 12 people and wounding 36 less than a week after Washington declared U.S. combat operations in Iraq over. REUTERS/Stringer (IRAQ - Tags: CIVIL UNREST)

The body of victim is seen on the ground of bomb attacks site in Baghdad September 5, 2010. Up to five suicide bombers, some armed with rifles, tried to storm an army base in Baghdad on Sunday, killing 12 people and wounding 36 less than a week after Washington declared U.S. combat operations in Iraq over. REUTERS/Stringer (IRAQ - Tags: CIVIL UNREST)

From the Washington Post's account of an attack on an Iraqi army base today:

The Americans provided covering fire while Iraqi soldiers pursued the attackers who had entered the compound, said Lt. Col Eric Bloom, a U.S. military spokesman. The U.S. intervention also included helicopters and drones, he said.

50,000 US troops remain in Iraq. Re-labeling them ("advisers") doesn't take them out of harm's way. No magic, bulletproof "we're not combat troops any more" force field pops into existence around them just because POTUS made a speech. They're still there, and the fighting continues.

The American combat mission in Iraq has ended? I need not deplete my own meager rhetorical arsenal for a pithy response -- Confederate cavalry warlord (and, to his eternal discredit, Ku Klux Klan founder) Nathan Bedford Forrest provided that response 140-odd years ago:

Damn such nonsense. War means fightin' and fightin' means killin'. Turn the grindstone.

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Cross-posted to AntiWar.Com

AP Pours the Regime Kool-Aid [TM] Down the Sink

Internal Associated Press memo, via circuitous route (Poynter Online As Seen On TV! memeorandum):

[C]ombat in Iraq is not over, and we should not uncritically repeat suggestions that it is, even if they come from senior officials. The situation on the ground in Iraq is no different today than it has been for some months. ... 50,000 American troops remain in country. Our own reporting on the ground confirms that some of these troops, especially some 4,500 special operations forces, continue to be directly engaged in military operations. These troops are accompanying Iraqi soldiers into battle with militant groups and may well fire and be fired on.

For the 30-second version, cue Winston Wolf:

Iraq: The Never-Ending Story

From my latest piece at C4SS:

“Tonight,” US President Barack Obama said in a nationally televised speech on Tuesday, “I am announcing that the American combat mission in Iraq has ended.”

That claim was about as accurate as former US President George W. Bush’s announcement more than seven years ago on May 1st, 2003: “Major combat operations in Iraq have ended.”

At the time of Bush’s victory lap on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln, only 139 US military personnel had died in the project of invading and occupying Iraq.

Even as Obama put the final touches to his own gloss on the same speech, the 4,278th American to die in Iraq since that speech fell to a sniper’s bullet in Tikrit.

Speaking of C4SS, its two-month fundraiser is not quite halfway to goal with 17 days remaining. Thanks to those of you who've pitched in, and pretty please to those who haven't yet. See here for more info.

In case you were laboring under the misimpression ...

... that the US "won" in Iraq, Voice of America explains that that's not the case:

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has arrived in Iraq where he is expected to hold talks with officials on the country's election deadlock.

Biden arrived in Baghdad Saturday on a visit that had not been previously announced by the White House.

More than seven years since "mission accomplished!"

More than three years since the 2nd Brigade of the US Army's 3rd Infantry Division arrived in Iraq to complete the "surge" rollout.

And yet to this very day, the President and Vice-President of the United States still have to sneak into Iraq like Mexicans looking for landscaping jobs in Texas, then spend most or all of their time in the country cowering behind the blast walls and barbed wire of the "Green Zone."

Yeah, that's "victory" all right. Uh huh.

More progress: Barr on Iraq

Bob Barr before becoming the Libertarian Party's 2008 presidential nominee:

[S]ignificantly reduce the US economic and military footprint in Iraq.

This phrasing appears in numerous articles around the web (search for it!). I can't tell if the original appearance, on Barr's web site, has been memory-holed or if my Google skills just aren't up to the task, but I recall that that appearance avoided the use of the term "withdrawal."

Bob Barr as the Libertarian Party's 2008 presidential nominee:

The next president should commit to a speedy and complete withdrawal from Iraq, and tell the Iraqi people that the U.S. troops will be going home.

Title of the article? "Tell Iraqis no permanent bases, says Bob Barr."

Works.

Prediction --- More Bad News From Iraq

[N.B. This was my commentary for June 17th on K's Frame of Mind, an "Internet radio" show. Every Sunday evening, I pop on for a few minutes to discuss the previous week's political developments -- usually the subject is presidential politics, but occasionally, as you can see below, it's not. Listen in -- the show is great fun!]

Over the last 4 years, Al Qaeda in Iraq and their fellow insurgentshave painstakingly developed and then demonstrated their capabilities. They've developed those capabilities because that's what fighting forces who want to win wars do. They've demonstrated those capabilities because proving to the world -- and especially to the American public -- that they cannot be stopped from continually increasing their ability to kill American troops is their key to victory.

What we're seeing in Iraq right now is the beginning of a new phase in the war, based on a demonstration of the third of three operational capabilities the insurgents have worked hard to develop.

The first capability was to effectively attack American military ground vehicles. With the help of (allegedly Iranian) shaped charges for their improvised explosive devices, that capability has been developed and demonstrated.

The second capability was to effectively attack American helicopters. Once again, developed and demonstrated. An insurgency without an air force can't deny the US Forces air superiority. It can however deny them air supremacy to the extent that that supremacy relies on rotary-wing support.

The third capability, now being demonstrated, is the ability to isolate areas of Baghdad. The insurgents received some help with thes from the US and Iraqi government forces themselves, who closed off all but 28 routes into and out of the city, starting last fall with the trenches. In the last week they've demonstrated their own capability by bringing down several bridges.

Prediction: US casualties are about to rise precipitously as the insurgents isolate sections of Baghdad, force US troops out of their vehicles, keep the skies clear of American helicopters, and engage on a much leveler playing field -- light infantry versus light infantry. Casualties will still be disproportionate -- the US troops are better trained, better equipped and better able to bring larger forces to bear as needed -- but the cost is still going to rise ... and the insugents will be seen as having a fourth key capability, that of dictating the terrain and terms upon which the fighting occurs.