Monday, February 01, 2016

My Iowa Caucus Predictions


I should have trotted these out earlier, if for no other reason than that if I'm right, being right well ahead of things burnishes my predictive credentials more than being right at the last minute. But I only just now got around to it. So, I predict:

On the Republican side:
  • Ted Cruz comes in first, ahead of Donald Trump by a nose;
  • Rand Paul tops 10%;
  • Within 72 hours, Mike Huckabee drops out and starts campaigning for Trump.
On the Democratic side:
  • Bernie Sanders comes in first, beating Hillary Clinton by at least 5%; and
  • "Uncommitted" and/or Joe Biden (if that's allowed as a choice -- I don't know the rules regarding "draft" candidates who have not declared) tops 10%.

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