Follow the Bouncing Ball

I try not to do so too much, actually, but it's hard not to notice the constantly changing Iowa numbers -- or the one constant in those numbers.

Newt Gingrich is up. Then he's down.

Mitt Romney's down. Then he's up.

Ron Paul is up. Then he's up a little. Then he's up some more. Persistently in at least third place, sometimes second, and in definite contention for first.

And keep in mind that Paul's actual caucus support is probably under-measured by traditional polling. His supporters tend to be more ... well, supportive ... than most.

In Iowa, it's not just a matter of dropping by the polling place and punching holes in a card. You have to be willing to spend an evening standing around in your candidate's corner of someone's living room and refusing to move.

Paul's supporters love standing around refusing to move. Romney's supporters and Gingrich's supporters probably include much larger "but there's a Glee re-run on at 8, and your TV is only a 26 inch, and I need to pick up popcorn ..." blocs.

Santorum and Bachmann will likely benefit from more motivated/dedicated supporters as well. Huntsman will probably personally swing by to give his supporter a ride to the caucus, but I don't see it helping much. And Rick Perry will probably be busy with that Glee re-run himself.

In other news, Gingrich has signed on to the National Campaign to Preserve, Restore and Impose Marriage Apartheid, leaving Paul the only major non-adopter of that guaranteed 10-point hit against GOP vote totals next November.

This is starting to get interesting!