Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Prediction for 2012 and beyond


I've dropped the GOP 2012 presidential handicapping for the moment (I may get back to it), but I'll go on record right now with a firm prediction:

Mitt Romney will not be elected directly to the presidency of the United States.

Note that I'm not saying he'll never be president. He just might get to the presidency someday, but if he does so his path there necessarily leads him through the vice-presidency -- serving two terms as veep then running on that record, or ascending to the throne due to the death, incapacity or impeachment of his running mate.

He's not going to get to the presidency on his existing record as the stud who sired ObamaCare on a helpless, prostrate Massachusetts.

People who like ObamaCare are going to vote for Obama in 2012 (or, if Obama's just too far off the left reservation on other things for them, for a Green or independent). Romney may be ObamaCare's father, but Obama is the doctor who actually delivered the baby.

People who don't like ObamaCare aren't going to vote for the baby daddy any more than they're going to vote for the OB-GYN ... especially in the Republican Party's presidential primaries and caucuses.

On the other hand, if the GOP nominates a rock-ribbed conservative type for president, Romney as veep would take the edge off a little bit, and he could be touted as "the man -- my man -- to dismantle ObamaCare and move health care reform back to the state level, an area he's learned a great deal about from hard experience."

If he gets that chance, I guess we'll see whether his ego can stand playing second fiddle. It's his only plausible path to first chair.

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