Tuesday, January 03, 2023

An NFL Prediction ...

... not apropos of Buffalo Bill defensive back Dakar Hamlin's collapse on the field last night. That seems to have been a "remarkably rare" case of getting hit a certain way at a certain time, causing ventricular fibrillation. Hamlin received CPR on the field before being hauled off to a hospital, and the game was suspended.

The bigger elephant in the NFL room is Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), a degenerative neurological condition caused by getting hit on the head too hard and/or too many times.

A lot of NFL players (and football players in general) end up with CTE because that's what happens when 22 large, muscular guys attack each other for a full hour (of game time), week after week, 18 weeks a year, every year (not including pre- and post-season play and practice play).

Recently, the NFL has instituted a "concussion protocol" to get players off the field if they're suspected of having had a concussion, and keep them off the field until they've had time to heal.

Naturally, concussions and CTE are related. Sub-concussive brain trauma can contribute to CTE, but concussion is especially bad.

There are always a few NFL players out of action on "concussion protocol," but the poster boy for it at the moment is Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He's out for a second time this season with concussion, and there were revisions to the protocol after the first time, as it appears he may have been concussed the game before he went down on the field.

My prediction: At some point, and probably fairly soon, the NFL is going to institute a concussion cap.

That is: If you are an NFL player and have been diagnosed with concussion X times (and perhaps a lower Y number times within a short period):

You. Are. Retired.

The players aren't going to like the idea. They're football players because playing football is what they do. You don't get to the NFL because football's a hobby you enjoy. You get to the NFL because you dedicate most, if not all, of your life to it. They love the game. They love being part of the team. They love winning. They love getting paid.

The fans aren't going to like the idea. It's going to involuntarily retire some of their favorite players at the heights of their careers and abilities.

NFL and team management/coaching aren't going to like the idea. They put lots of time and lots of money into finding and coaching up the players who can take them to the Promised Land.

But you know who else won't like the idea? Personal injury lawyers. They love taking organizations with deep pockets to court and walking away with piles of money. And sooner or later, they're going to start taking money from NFL teams and the NFL itself.

Which means that, at some point, the NFL/owners are going to sit down with the Players Association and hammer out a deal. That deal will include some kind of insurance that provides a decent retirement for players who are forced out of the game. It will also include specific numbers/types of injuries that exceed the cap, and probably a board of final appeal, etc. And it will be made as airtight as possible against litigation.

Could I be wrong? Yeah. But I'm not. And you probably read it here first.

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