Sunday, November 23, 2014

Ferguson Grand Jury: When and Why Prediction

[Note: This post was published for my Patreon supporters about 24 hours in advance of its publication here]

The media's "expected by" date for a grand jury's decision on whether or not to indict Ferguson, Missouri police officer Darren Wilson in the killing of Michael Brown was yesterday. That date has come and gone and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the grand jury will re-convene Monday.

I predict that the grand jury's decision will be announced on Monday.

Why the delay? Because a Friday announcement would have left an entire weekend, with low temperatures above freezing and a Sunday high in the high 50s -- relatively balmy for the St. Louis area this time of year -- open for demonstrations.

Starting Monday, the forecast for a whole week features lows below freezing (even into the low 20s), highs of 45 degrees or lower, gusty winds and at least occasional rain. And a Monday noonish announcement puts two-and-a-half regular workdays between the announcement and a holiday weekend that lots of people have to work at least part of and others will plan to be out of town for.

The decision is already made. The timing of the announcement is about reducing crowd sizes and hours of large protester presence by making it harder to get people onto the streets and more miserable for them to stay there when they do come out.

Of course, I could be wrong.

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