Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Connecting two dots

Voice of America, August 24th:

South Korean defense officials say North Korea is deploying massive numbers of troops and arms near the capital of Pyongyang. ... The report said the deployment appears to be related to a meeting of key communist party delegates next month and the party's 65th anniversary on October 10. ... Some analysts say North Korean leader Kim Jong Il will probably designate his youngest son Kim Jong Un as his successor at the September meeting, only the third such gathering since the communist state was founded in 1948.

CNN, August 26th:

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is visiting China, the South Korean JoongAng Daily reported Thursday, citing a South Korean government official.

"[North Korea's] National Defense Commission chairman Kim was detected to be visiting China on his private train," said the official.

The official said Seoul did not understand the purpose of the visit nor did the government know whom Kim planned to contact.

My guess is that the DPRK's military plans for the Kim dynasty to end with Kim Jong Il, and possibly for Kim Jong Il himself to end sooner rather than later; that he knows it's coming; and that there's a lot of jockeying for position going on. Maybe the coup is coming, maybe it's already happened, maybe he's trying to get Chinese intervention lined up to put it down when it comes. But something's going on.

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