Showing posts with label Election 2020. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Election 2020. Show all posts

Monday, October 31, 2022

Election 2022: One Thing I'll Be Interested in Seeing ...

... is how bad the GOP's vote by mail hangover is -- or, for that matter whether there is one -- from 2020.

I issued my final predictions for US Senate outcomes ten days ago. And final means final. No backsies. I'm right or I'm wrong, but I'm not going to keep second-guessing myself. The polls continue to tighten, as they usually do, but for "election analysis bragging rights," I'm stuck with what I predicted on October 21.

One of my major assumptions in those predictions is that the Democrats still enjoy a large advantage in early voting by mail, which means many ballots will have been cast before these last couple of weeks of developments.

The reason for that assumption is that in 2020, the Trumpist line reversed the traditional Republican position in favor of voting by mail, resulting in a large Democratic advantage in mail ballot outcomes in a year when lots of people voted by mail. A lot of Republicans are still Trumpists; presumably this means a lot of Republicans still distrust voting by mail and intend to vote in person. But voting in person is more vulnerable to bad weather, personal emergencies, etc.

I could be wrong on this. Perhaps most Republicans have discarded that particular dumb idea between 2020 and now.

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

An Interesting Question

What kind of world do you wanna live in? Do you wanna live in a world where somebody says something that's not a good idea, in public, and then they just have to stick with it even after everybody tells them it's not a good idea? Is that what you want? You don't want that world.

That's from today's edition of Scott Adams's daily Periscope.

My take:

Adams is absolutely right. It's better to change one's mind about a bad idea than to hold on to that bad idea after you know it's a bad idea.

BUT!

When a politician articulates a bad idea in public, and everyone has a cow, and within 24 hours the politician starts "walking back" that idea, is it plausible to believe that the politician has actually changed his or her mind?

I think the context strongly militates against assuming that he or she has. And against assuming that the initial remark was informative as to his or her actual beliefs in the first place.

In this particular, Adams is talking about Kamala Harris's public statement that she wants to "eliminate" private health care options in favor of "Medicare For All."

Cue public reaction, followed by a statement from her press secretary -- not her -- that "she would also be open to pursuing more moderate reforms."

She's been preparing herself, and being groomed by the Democratic Party, to run for president for at least two years. She's clearly the party establishment's preferred candidate, at least in the early running. She's bringing in money. She's hiring pro staffers. If there's a front-runner at the moment, she's it.

Her "eliminate" remark is not something that came thoughtlessly or accidentally out of the blue. Or if it is, then that proves she's not very quick on her feet and probably shouldn't get in the debate ring with an opponent who is.

She said it at a CNN "town hall" event, for which she was presumably extensively prepped by that pro staff, and she was speaking to a major policy issue on which she's presumably been boning up for some time.

She presumably said it because she believed, or was told by her pollsters to believe, that it was what her audience wanted to hear, not in some accidental sudden fit of verbal diarrhea.

And neither the initial remark nor her campaign staff's "oh my God, we didn't expect THAT reaction!" attempt to walk it back tells us anything about what she actually thinks, or about what she would do if given significant power to influence policy.

It just tells us she's a pander-bear.

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

OK, Now I'm Interested

For some reason, the idea of former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz running for president struck me as ... well ... indescribably boring. So much so that I paid almost zero attention to the stories floating around about the possibility.

But I'll read pretty much anything Nick Gillespie cares to write (even when, as is often the case, I stridently disagree with him), and his piece today in Reason makes a decent case that there may be some "there" there worth checking out.

No, I don't plan to vote for Schultz. But if he's really pursuing the kind of "public conversation" that Gillespie thinks he's pursuing, I'll root for him to be successful in that pursuit.