Thursday, September 03, 2020

In a Game of Inches ...


 ... even small mistakes can change the outcome.

In my opinion, a party/campaign/candidate that sues for the express purpose of making it more difficult for people to vote is going to lose at least a little mojo with people who notice that's what they're doing.

Trump isn't going to lose votes from his hardcore base over this. But I doubt that it's going to be a big or necessary motivator for that base, either.

On the other hand he's pumping some extra gas into the Democrats' Get Out The Vote tank. On the scale that ranges from "why bother, might as well sit at home and binge-watch Big Bang Theory for the eighth time" to "damn right I'm casting a ballot," he's helping Democrats push their voters away from the former end, and toward the latter end, of that scale.

And "THAT guy wants to stop me from voting" also probably pushes a few undecided voters off the fence both with respect to whether they vote and who they vote for.

In 2016, I predicted that Trump would win the election in May, and issued my 50 state-by-state predictions in September (I got 48 of 50 states right -- I missed Wisconsin and Iowa).

This year, it's already September and I frankly have no idea who's going to win the election. But I strongly suspect it's going to come down (again) to tiny margins in a handful of states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and probably Florida).

I don't know that his crusade against voting by mail will change the outcome. But I believe it's hurting, not helping, him.


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