Reminder: Generic Ballot Polling Is Worthless

I'm only using Erick-Woods Erickson as the example because I happened to come across it this morning. His general advice to Republicans isn't terrible, it's the information he's throwing out as an example of how poorly Republicans are doing that's the problem.

Republicans take 41 percent on the generic ballot while the President sits at 37 percent approval.

 So what?

1. That's national polling. There are no national elections this November. There are 435 US House elections, 35 US Senate seats, and 36 state governorships up for election.
2. That's generic party preference polling. It tells us nothing about how many people, in which of those polities, like which candidates, none of whom are named "Donald Trump."

Every two years, generic ballot polling gets used to predict a "wave" for one party or the other, but it's not a reliable predictive tool for that, even to the extent that the polling is reliable and accurate.

Republicans are going to out-perform their party's national generic ballot polling in Alabama.

Democrats are going to out-perform their party's national generic ballot polling in California.

In close/"swing" districts, it's going to come down to the individual candidates and their campaigns.

Remember that every time you see a "blue wave" prediction. While I expect the Democrats to pick up seats in both House and Senate, and maybe even take majorities in one or both, we're talking about a handful of seats changing party.

Wordle 1902 Hint

Hint: Under-floor support.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle below.

New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: J

The Move Is Far From Finished ...

... but it's begun.

No, that's not a sepia photo filter. It's what the inside of the tent looks like without open windows and in "natural" daylight on an overcast day.

That's about the front third of the tent (the front door is the panel centered behind the pole). Sofa, coffee table, and shoe shelf (shoes won't be worn in the tent) on the left, desk on the right.

That little chandelier on the top right is a solar-powered light with wiring going out the stove jack (you can see the panel through the roof). The light really isn't much; I'll be augmenting or replacing it ASAP. 

I'll have more shelving coming in for e.g. motorcycle helmets and other bike-related stuff, a couple of chairs for that sofa/coffee table area, either a guitar rack or multiple guitar stands, and a twin frame to move the guest bed mattress over from the camper. And so on, and so forth.

I find the desk, which I put together yesterday, a little small. I think I have a bigger one in storage. If not, I'll go shopping.

Right now, the main hold-up is finding enough cheap rugs to completely cover the floor.

Still working to get the tent correctly trimmed, as you can tell from the wrinkle behind the sofa.

While I understood in my head, from the numbers, that the tent is much larger than the camper, it took standing in it to really feel how much larger. If the doorways ran down to floor level, I'd strongly consider using the extra space as a motorcycle garage. Maybe I'll get a pool or ping-pong table!