Florida Election 2022: My "Endorsement" for Governor

I consider voting neither a "civic duty" nor an initiation of force. It's just making a mark on a piece of paper to indicate a preference from among several choices in a bad system. The system is there whether I approve of it or not, and a governor will be chosen whether I fill in that little circle or not.

I could justify not voting on "who cares?" grounds or on "it won't make any difference" grounds.

I could also justify voting on Rothbardian "defensive" grounds (choose the least bad slave overseer since you're going to be getting one of those whether you like it or not) and on "send a message" grounds. In a particularly close election, I could justify it on "maybe it will make the difference" grounds.

It's pretty much a toss-up.

So, let's have a look at the race for Florida governor. Should I vote? If so, who should I vote for (or against)?

As I've pointed out elsewhere, the two "major party" candidates on my ballot -- Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Charlie Crist -- are "both swamp creatures, political careerists, tax parasites who’ve spent their entire adult lives either on, or trying to get on, government payrolls." There's absolutely nothing whatsoever that would justify a vote for either one of them.

That said, if the polls had the election within a single percentage point, I might consider choosing Crist as my vote against DeSantis. Not because I think Crist would be a better governor, but because losing this election would effectively take DeSantis out of the running for president in 2024 or 2028. If he can't get re-elected in his own state, he's just not national material. And I do not want a President Ron DeSantis.

What do the polls say? FiveThirtyEight's average has DeSantis up by 6.2%.

That could change (or the polling could be off due to sampling issues) as Latino voters whose parents fled Cuba or Venezuela take note of his idiotic "fly Venezuelan immigrants from Texas to Massachusetts to OWN THE LIBS" stunt.

But for the moment, the chances of my vote affecting the outcome between them are as low as is usual in large elections, which is to say effectively zero. I don't have to vote "for" Crist on the off possibility that doing so will let me OWN DESANTIS.

Who else do we have?

Carmen Jackie Gimenez lists a bunch of credentials and embeds Instagram and Twitter feeds on her campaign's "about" page, but there's no issues page. She seems like she may be reasonably good on immigration freedom and immigrant rights. And she's apparently endorsed by Jesus, which I'd expect to be bigger news than it is. But I'm just not getting the vibe that she offers much in terms of "defensive," "send a message," or "make a difference" grounds.

Other than write-in candidates, that leaves Libertarian candidate Hector Roos.

On one hand, he seems a little too closely affiliated with the Republican PAC that recently took over both the Libertarian Party of Florida and the Libertarian National Committee for my taste. And his background looks a little shady.

On the other hand, his campaign web site, minimal as it is, says the right things. And I suspect that the Mises PAC hasn't yet succeeded in its goal of reframing the Libertarian Party's message into "we're even more stupid and evil than the Trumpists, you should vote Republican" such that a vote for Roos would "send that message."

So, if I vote at all, and if the election doesn't turn into a 1% cliffhanger by the time I do, I'll be voting for Roos.

Things That Make Me Ask "WTF?"

Marco Rubio wasn't going to seek re-election to the US Senate.

But apparently he considers Omar Mateen's attack on an Orlando nightclub an indicator of strong public demand for his continued service, to which he may -- reluctantly, mind you, reluctantly -- bow.

Anyone got some extra facepalm? I'm running short this week.

@sayfiereview -- Well, it would be a good start anyway ...

I get my Florida political news each morning from Sayfie Review. 90% of the time if I comment on a Florida political news story, that's where I found it. This morning's tidbit, via the Lakeland Ledger:

Juries would have to be unanimous before recommending the death penalty for defendants in murder cases under a bill filed Tuesday by a South Florida lawmaker.

The bill (HB 139), proposed by Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez, D-Miami, will be considered during the 2015 legislative session. Under current law, a majority of a jury can recommend that a defendant receive the death penalty, with a judge ultimately deciding whether to impose the sentence

Now, I oppose letting state employees kill anyone in cold blood (as opposed to "in the heat of the moment" necessity in defense of the lives of self or others), period. And I don't think that position is something justified solely in terms of my own anarchism.

For you "limited government" types out there, how can a government be considered "limited" in any sense if it has the acknowledged power to kill someone who is, at the moment, not a threat to the lives of others by virtue of having been brought to bay and caged? Any other power can be curtailed ex post facto: Taxes can be refunded, property that was taken can be given back, innocent people who were jailed can be released and paid restitution for the damage done them. Once you've killed a guy, it's done. There's no way to undo it, there's no way to compensate the dead person if it turns out he or she was innocent of the offense, etc. Capital punishment is, by any reasonable definition, an instance of unlimited government.

But, while I'd like to get rid of capital punishment altogether, I can endorse pre-application limits on it as an interim measure without judging myself hypocritical. I think requiring a unanimous jury recommendation is a good start.

A good next step would be to forbid voir dire questioning of prospective jurors with respect to their views on capital punishment (in at least some states, the law allows for or requires dismissal of jurors from capital cases if they oppose the death penalty).

A good third step would be to outlaw the practice of keeping the identities of the killers and their accessories secret, as some states already do or are moving to do (the current excuse being that pharmacies won't sell the state its killing drugs unless their identities are kept secret from the people who pay the bills).

But the next to the absolutely best thing would be to simply deny the state the power to kill in cold blood (the absolutely best thing would be to abolish the state altogether, of course).

Make That at Least TWO Gubernatorial Elections ...

... in which Trek bicycles will play an important role this year.

The best-known instance, of course, is Mary Burke's campaign for governor of Wisconsin. She's the daughter of Trek's founder and the company's former head of European operations.

The second, you'll see cruising up and down Archer Road outside of Gainesville, Florida tomorrow:

Archer Road is a major thoroughfare with high traffic, especially during commute times. There's also at least one polling place along it between the city limits and the turnoff to my place. And there's a very nice bike trail a few feet off the road, where I can fly the Libertarian Party colors very visibly to traffic, hopefully without worrying about getting run down like a dog by some guy in a pickup truck with a "Swamp Life" sticker and pictures of his stick figure family on the rear window.

How to Lose a Tight Election

This:


Rick Scott wasn't doing nearly as well as you'd expect an incumbent to be doing against a flaky party-hopping opportunist like Charlie Crist anyway (see RCP), and now this. Apparently his scheduler got mixed up and told him he was guest-starring on America's Dumbest Douchebag Videos or something.
Go, Adrian!

Election 2014 Handicapping: Florida's Gubernatorial Race

It's really hard to call this early, but my gut feeling is that Republican governor Rick Scott is setting up pretty well for a second term. The polls are back and forth, usually showing Democratic nominee (and former Republican governor) Charlie Crist well ahead of Scott (RCP average right now is Crist +2.4), but two thoughts of my own (first and last in the list below) and three stories featured in Sayfie Review this morning (in the middle of the list below) explain why I think Scott has the initiative:

• Nobody -- nobody -- really trusts Charlie Crist. The Democrats didn't nominate him because they like him, they nominated him because of a knee-jerk feeling that he could win. He's a Republican. No, wait, he's an independent. No, wait, he's a Democrat. He jumps parties like running deer jump fences: Whenever anything gets in the way of the one thing Charlie Crist cares about, which is Charlie Crist.  In November, it will come down to turnout. The entirety of Crist's campaign pitch boils down to 1) "I am Charlie Crist"  and 2) "I am not Rick Scott." It's going to take more than that to get asses out of chairs and down to the polling place.
• Scott is already running an anti-Crist ad blitz. Aaron Deslatte's coverage of that blitz in the Orlando Sentinel tells the tale in eight words: "Outraised 3-to-1 thus far, Crist's campaign ..."  Who's going to give money to Charlie Crist? He has a huge fundraising list -- of people whom he sold himself to as a Republican and who correctly feel betrayed by his "sore loser" moves to independent and then Democrat. He's a tough sell to Democratic donors. Will he still be a Democrat in December, even if he wins? Who knows?
• Scott is campaigning on a "state socialism lite" platform. That may cost him a few Republican base votes (see "Wyllie, Adrian below), but he'll probably more than make up those base votes among independents who like taxpayer-subsidized college tuition and corporate welfare for rail transit.
• How does the third party vote split out? On the one hand, I reject the whole "spoiler" myth. Votes belong to voters, not to candidates. If someone votes for Libertarian nominee Adrian Wyllie or independent Farid Khavari, that's the voter's choice, not a vote "stolen from" one of the major party candidates. On the other hand, it's reasonable to assume that were Wyllie and Khavari not on the ballot, many (not all, but many) of their voters would instead choose one of those major party candidates. And I think those votes will, to the extent that they "come out of a major party candidate's hide," hurt Crist more than they hurt Scott if for no other reason than that Scott already has his base, while Crist is wandering in a partisan wilderness trying to find a new one.

Disclaimers/disclosures: In 2010, before I even lived in Florida, I did some freelance campaign work for Khavari. I stopped voting in 2010, but there's a slight possibility I'll vote this year for various reasons not really that related to politics. If I do, it will probably be for Wyllie.

In Florida, Some Animals Are More Equal Than Others ...

... or at least some tree thieves get a better deal than others.


Exhibit A:

Any person who proves by clear and convincing evidence that he or she has been injured in any fashion by reason of any violation of ss. 812.012-812.037 or s. 825.103(1) has a cause of action for threefold the actual damages sustained ... -- Florida Statute § 772.11

Exhibit A(1):

(1) A person commits theft if he or she knowingly obtains or uses, or endeavors to obtain or to use, the property of another with intent to, either temporarily or permanently:
(a) Deprive the other person of a right to the property or a benefit from the property.
(b) Appropriate the property to his or her own use or to the use of any person not entitled to the use of the property. -- Florida Statute § 812.014

Exhibit B:

Three years after what a grand jury called a flagrantly illegal $2 million tree giveaway to a well-connected Panhandle billboard company, the Florida Department of Transportation settled for pennies on the dollar.

The state agree to accept just $100,000, although $90,000 of that is yet to be collected. The payments will be made interest-free over the next five years. -- Matt Dixon at Politijax

What's There to "Grapple" With?

Florida law and SCOTUS rulings conflict over the matter of life sentences for minors. The courts and the politicians and the prosecutors and the defenders are all tangled up in what to do about that.

It shouldn't be a big deal, because this is a simple issue. I'm not big on the death penalty, but one of the few exceptions I'm willing to make is for politicians who legislate, or prosecutors who invoke, the prosecution of minors "as adults." They're right up there with Third World rebels who conscript child soldiers and require them to rape and kill their mothers as a rite of passage. They should be shuffled off to Starke in leg irons and orange coveralls and, as per Florida practice, be given their pick between electrocution or lethal injection.

Like most states, Florida makes very specific distinctions in law between categories of people designated "children" (or "minors") and "adults." If such distinctions are going to be made, they need to run equitably in both directions.

If the law says you're "not old enough" to drive a car, vote in an election, have consensual sex, marry without your parents' permission, enlist in the military, file a lawsuit, incorporate a business, sign a lease, buy a copy of Penthouse, get a tattoo, smoke a cigarette or drink a beer, how the hell can you be "old enough" to be reasonably expected to parse and comply with the 1013 chapters (split out under 48 separate titles) of Florida statute, under threat of the penalties prescribed therein for those who are considered "old enough" to do those other things?

You can't, and anyone who says you can is a lunatic, a cannibal or both.

They're kids, or they're not kids.

It's one or the other.

They can't be kids when you don't want them to puff on a Marlboro or make the beast with two backs with their BFF on your sofa while you're out golfing, then magically transform into adults the instant they run an old lady down in the crosswalk or stab the neighborhood crack dealer to death for a rock or two and some quick cash.

Florida is the fourth most populous state (After California, Texas and New York), but has America's third largest prison population, with nearly twice as many inmates as fourth-place New York¹ (and somehow, even without -- or perhaps because it's without -- all that incarceration, New York manages to keep its rate of violent crimes per capita down to about 60% of that of Florida²).

Florida's politicians are looking for ways to cut the cost of keeping so many people in cages.

Here's one: Stop putting kids in those cages.

-----
1. US Bureau of Justice Statistics [PDF].
2. Statistical Abstract of the United States, Violent Crimes per 100,000 Population -- 2006.

Well

That's a deep subject, isn't it?

Yes, I blew the Florida primary prediction, big-time -- looks like by about 23 points or so. Hey, it happens.

Mitt Romney needed to win by 10 points or more to really get back in this race. It looks like he won by 14.

BUT! Lookit:

 

I grabbed that graphic from Fox News, on the supposition that a generic state map with colored counties reflecting public information probably is probably fair game for fair use. Red is for Romney, green is for Newt Gingrich.

Yes, Romney won the state fair and square. But if you take a gander at the geography there, it doesn't look very good for Romney in future GOP primaries or for the GOP itself in the general election.

In the panhandle, where the GOP primary electorate looks a lot more like most of Republican America and especially southern Republican America, Gingrich whipped Romney's ass. If he has the money/backing to stick with this, Gingrich probably has North Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Lousiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas in pocket. And, of course, his home state of Georgia.

In southern Florida, where the GOP primary electorate is more moderate, Romney proved that he can beat candidates perceived as more conservative. But in November even Romney, if he's the nominee, will be the putative conservative. And the GOP is unlikely to win the White House if it can't win Florida.

This is Romney's fourth time out in this cycle. He's 2 for 4, and has yet to break 50% anywhere. The majority of Republican primary voters keep saying "not Mitt." By Super Tuesday, I predict that that "not Mitt" vote will have largely coalesced to "yes Newt."

Contra Epstein

Reid J. Epstein @Politico:

Gingrich needs a close race more than Romney needs a blowout victory.

I disagree. Anything but a blowout for Romney today is effectively the end of his campaign.

If Gingrich wins Florida, "prohibitive frontrunner" and biggest spender Mitt Romney will be 1 for 4, and that one an underwhelming win in the smallest contest thus far.

If Romney wins but it's close, he continues to be what he's been since Iowa -- "the walking dead." He may hold on until Super Tuesday before going down, but down he shall go.

He needs to win by at least 10 points to really get back in the race.

With the polls now open, I'm still calling Florida for Gingrich.

"Dead heat in Florida ahead of debate"

Image via Wikipedia

That's not the headline you want to see if you're Mitt Romney and guy you're within the margin of error of and about to debate is Newt Gingrich.

A lot of people, especially pundits, have been giving themselves whiplash from watching the polls jump around this campaign season.

Rest that neck. Put on a cervical collar and stick with me here. I predicted Newt would be the nominee right after Iowa. I predicted his performance, and Romney's, in South Carolina to within 2 points each. And I'm sticking by my Florida prediction:

Gingrich: 42%
Romney: 33%
Santorum: 13%
Paul 12%

And frankly I think I may be over-predicting Santorum at Gingrich's expense, and under-estimating Paul a bit.

Here's why Gingrich is going to pull off a clear win in Florida:

• The debate: When Romney comes under attack, he falls to pieces. He stutters, he stammers, he looks evasive, he comes off as distinctly un-"presidential." When Gingrich comes under attack, he goes on the offensive and doesn't ease up until the floor is soaked in his opponents' blood. Romney will take a 5-10% hit from tomorrow's debate. Gingrich will get a 5-10% bump.
• Another Adelson soft money check is fueling a $6 million Newt SuperPAC media offensive between now and the primary. That's not as much money as Mitt's spending, but it's enough.
• Romney is not as belligerently pro-Israel as Gingrich (Florida has the largest Jewish community of any southern state, and it is politically organized).
• Romney is not as belligerently anti-Castro as Gingrich (Florida has the largest Cuban exile community of any state, and it is politically organized).
• Florida has a large population of immigrants and first-generation Americans. Gingrich has aggressively positioned himself as the least insanely anti-freedom Republican candidate on immigration policy.
• The top two religious demographics in Florida are Roman Catholics (Gingrich and Santorum are Catholic) and evangelical Christians (many, if not most, of whom distrust Romney's religion, Mormonism).

The worse news for Romney is that even if I'm wrong, he's still probably screwed. He doesn't just need to win Florida, he needs to break out a major ass-whipping.

He entered the GOP nomination race as the prohibitive front-runner. He's now won only one of three primaries/caucuses, and that one the smallest, and he only pulled 40% of the vote there when he should have easily cruised past 50%. He's limping. He's bleeding. Barely squeaking by is not going to be enough to get him back in this race for real.

Gingrich, on the other hand, came from double digits back to win in South Carolina, and has now pulled up by double digits to contest a state that was supposed to be a Romney cakewalk. He's got the momentum of a runaway truck. As everyone who's contested an election with him since 1976 can attest, he is not someone you want to see bearing down on you in this kind of fight.

So, I still say Gingrich by nine points, give or take two. But, as always, I could be wrong.

Related articles

• CNN/Time Poll: Dead heat in Florida ahead of debate (Kevinliptak/CNN) (memeorandum.com)
• Beware of Early Florida Polls (theothermccain.com)
• New poll suggests Gingrich surging in Florida (politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com)
• Newt Gingrich Gets Key Endorsement Ahead of Florida Primary [Video] (inquisitr.com)
• 'Remain Calm! All Is Well!' (theothermccain.com)

The power of Crist compels you

Back on April 19th, The Other McCain asked "how stupid is Charlie Crist?"

And, as booze-addled Peckerwood Populist pundits are wont to do, he answered his own question: "Stupid enough to think he can get elected as an independent ... my own opinion is that it would be a very good thing for Crist to run as an independent and get his ass kicked nine ways to Sunday by Marco Rubio."

My reply at the time (see comments on post linked above) was seemingly wrong also, but not quite as wrong as Stacy's take -- I predicted a Crist win, but consigned Rubio to third, not second, place.

Right now, Crist is up on Rubio by 11 points, but Rubio leads Democrat Kendrick Meek by 17.

I'm going to stand by my prediction though -- I expect to see Rubio come in below 20% in November. We haven't heard the last of his personal financial imbroglios or his alleged abuses of GOP credit cards, nor does the current polling capture the likely positive (for Meek) Election Day effect of Democratic GOTV ops.

Florida: GOP primary prediction

Running a little late here (I wanted to give Kubby's State of the Union address as much time up top as possible), but the usual format -- first my unrealistic October prediction, then my final call.

From October, pre-Huckabee-surge, etc.:

1st - McCain (~55%)
2nd - Romney (~30%)
3rd - Ghouliani (~10%)
4th - Paul (~5%)

My final call:

1st - McCain (~38%)
2nd - Romney (~30%)
3rd - Giuliani (~15%)
4th - Huckabee (~12%)
5th - Paul (~5%)

Surprised / Not Surprised

- Surprised if Romney beats 30%.
- Not surprised if Romney nosedives to 25% or less.

- Surprised if McCain garners an absolute majority.
- Not surprised if McCain breaks 40%.

- Surprised if either Giuliani or Huckabee beats 15%.
- Not surprised if they switch places from my prediction -- Hucks small base looks pretty solid, Giuliani's was built on sand and has completely shattered.

- Surprised if Paul hits 10% or falls below 2%.
- Not surprised if Paul gets as much as 8% or as little as 2%.

From here on out, McCain runs the big-state table. Super Tuesday is anti-climax -- Florida is where the deal is sealed.

I originally called Giuliani to win New York and New Jersey, but he's already disintegrating in both those states and after today their walk away from him will become a stampede. His smartest move would have been to drop out and cut a deal before today. After Florida, McCain doesn't need Giuliani and Giuliani doesn't bring anything with him that can save Romney. The GOP nomination fat lady is warming up. Concert's tonight.