Saturday, December 31, 2022
Public Key Housekeeping ...
A Little Bit of a Statement
The CT chest results came back abnormal. Please keep your appt in January, we will discuss this in more details. I will also send the referral to the lung doctor.
- Mortality: Absent massive advances in medicine and technology and so forth, we're all going to die. I won't try to bullshit you by claiming I like the whole idea, but at least as far back as my teens I've accepted the proposition, and for a long time expected my own death to come fairly early. I drove fast. When I joined the Marine Corps, my wanted and expected MOS was infantry, not admin clerk. Both in and out of the Corps, I engaged in reasonably risky physical behaviors like crawling through caves, rappelling off of cliffs and helicopters, etc. I tried several ("illegal") drugs widely considered scary and dangerous, although I never became a habitual user of those. And yes, I started dipping snuff at 12 and smoking at 16. It's not that I believe in a Big Rock Candy Mountain afterlife or anything like that (I just don't know what, if anything, happens after one dies, although I engage in some comforting speculations and childhood-inculcated fears). It's that I have preferences as to how to live, and that I've allowed those preferences to outweigh any dread of dying.
- Responsibility: That's mine. All mine. Big Tobacco didn't tie me down and shove cigarettes in my mouth. I knew from childhood ("Surgeon General's Warning ...") that they were referred to informally as "coffin nails" for a reason. The Marine Corps' (very effective) recruitment approach is to discourage potential enlistees with stories about how difficult and dangerous it is, and I grew up in the shadow of Vietnam with stories from veterans (and their surviving family members), e.g. Apocalypse Now on the screen, etc. I heard the "just say no to drugs" messaging. I got the lectures on how I was going to get myself killed skateboarding, rock-climbing, etc. I cannot say I wasn't warned, repeatedly and stridently, about every dangerous decision I made. I made them. Me. Nobody else. If I die because I did stupid things, the stupidity involved was and is mine and mine alone.
- Options: Here's where it gets variable. I've known many people with terminal or likely-terminal diagnoses/prognoses. Some of those people have chosen to take every conceivable offered measure to extend their lives. Their call to make. For me, it's a cost-benefit thing. If I'm told I have six months to live in relative comfort, or that I can possibly extend that to 12 months with a series of measures that are painful to me and inconvenient to my family, I plan and hope I'll stick with the plan, to go with the six months. I've always thought I'd rather have six not-too-terrible months than 12 really bad months, knowing that the end is coming either way. But I suppose I might change my mind when it actually comes to that fork in the road.
Wordle 560 Hint
Hint: Today's answer could be like the guy in Old Spice Commercials, or like a beach-side Sydney suburb in Australia.
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Friday, December 30, 2022
After 40 Years of Smoking ...
- "Finding suggestive of pulmonary Langerhans' cell histiocytosis with multiple pulmonary nodules ..."
- "Nodular contour of the liver which can be seen with chronic hepatocellular disease."
- "Probably benign finding: 1-2% risk of malignancy"
- "Clinically significant or potentially significant non-lung cancer finding." (I think that may be referring to the liver part)
- "Mild mixed emphysema."
- "[I]nnumerable bilateral pulmonary nodules measuring up to 4 mm."
I Like Silver ...
Wordle 559 Hint
Hint: Sink your teeth into today's puzzle, but be prepared for a grind.
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Thursday, December 29, 2022
Next Up in the Never-Ending Quest for My Ideal Desktop Machine ...
... is the ATOPNUC Mini PC. About $105 including tax and a $10-off coupon at Amazon (not an affiliate link). That's for the model with Ubuntu instead of Windows 10, and with 8Gb of RAM instead of 4. Call it my Christmas present to myself, although it won't be here until next week.
I've been using the Raspberry Pi 4B as my "daily driver" desktop machine since August of 2021 and I can't say I'm terribly unhappy with it.
But what I really want is: An 8Gb Chromebox that doesn't cost several hundred dollars.
Why? Because other than an occasional game of a Connect 4 clone, I don't really use the operating system.
I've gone through 32-bit Raspbian, 64-bit Raspberry Pi OS (which was buggy and kept freezing), Manjaro Linux in both KDE Plasma and xfce desktop editions. And all of them are just more operating system, using more resources, than I need. I use 1) the Chromium or Chrome browser, and 2) a text editor that's a Chrome/Chromium extension. Or, to put it a different way, I'm using the features of a Chromebook or Chromebox, with a bunch of other resource-consuming crap just taking up space and CPU time.
Last week, I tried installing the Raspberry Pi build of ChromiumOS, and it was just dreamy -- except that some things simply didn't work, and I was unable to successfully troubleshoot them.
I'm hoping that ChromiumOS (or ChromeOS Flex, if there's a build for this AMD 9400 CPU , which there may or may not be) will work on this new machine.
It's got a small physical footprint, which I like.
It's got two HDMI out ports, so I won't need adapters, etc. to use it with my two monitors.
I am a little worried about its power consumption. Its power supply is 12 volt/3 amp, so it could conceivably draw up to 36 watts, while the Pi hardly ever breaks 10 watts even under load, and I'm trying to run entirely from solar power via a 160-watt panel and 300 watt-hour power station.
I guess we'll see. Worse comes to worst, it will end up as yet another project machine for my son to turn into a weird retro gaming box or something. But I'm hoping for the best.
Week 17 NFL Picks
Arizona Cardinals beat Atlanta Falcons -- 53%*
Carolina Panthers beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 53%*
Detroit Lions beat Chicago Bears -- 71%
Washington Commanders beat Cleveland Browns -- 53%
Kansas City Chiefs beat Denver Broncos -- 100%
New York Giants beat Indianapolis Colts -- 53%
Jacksonville Jaguars beat Houston Texans -- 100%
New England Patriots beat Miami Dolphins -- 61%
Philadelphia Eagles beat New Orleans Saints -- 100%
Seattle Seahawks beat New York Jets -- 67%
San Francisco 49ers beat Las Vegas Raiders -- 71%
Los Angeles Chargers beat Los Angeles Rams -- 79%
Minnesota Vikings beat Green Bay Packers -- 91%
Baltimore Ravens beat Pittsburgh Steelers -- 67%
Cincinnati Bengals beat Buffalo Bills -- 61%
Wordle 558 Hint
Hint: Got some mean dogs? Cry this before letting them off their leashes.
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Wednesday, December 28, 2022
And Again with the Damn Grids ...
There are only two ways to go: change the plan to destabilize the grid with politically favored renewables, or try to change people’s idea of normal grid operations.
Transformers blow. Drunk drivers, hurricanes, or ice storms take lines down or flood/freeze pumps. Trains full of coal derail. Pipelines leak.When those problems occur, “intermittency” goes to “non-existence,” and “density” falls to zero, until they’re fixed, for every customer downstream of the problems.If a squirrel chews through the wires connecting your solar panels to your internal home “grid,” your neighbor’s refrigerator doesn’t miss a beat.
As with everything, there's a cost-benefit analysis involved.
Maybe, for example, home (or neighborhood) solar or wind with ample battery storage (for cloudy or windless days) is more expensive per installed kilowatt-hour than is centrally-generated, grid-distributed coal, gas, hydro, or nuclear.
On the other hand, less centralization of power generation delivering to many usage nodes via a grid means that fewer people are affected when there's a problem at the generation or grid level.
Do you prefer cheaper power, or do you prefer to have your lights on even when there's a problem elsewhere (and for your neighbor to have his lights on even if yours are out)?
Another "Why Do These Not Exist" Thought
Gift cards for real estate.
Not sure why that popped into my head*, but it did and when I went to search for it all I found were 1) greeting cards for real estate agents and 2) gift cards for some outfit that supplies real estate agents with leads.
But why not a gift card that can only be spent as a down payment or mortgage payment on real estate?
Seems like a seller of real estate or a mortgage broker would make out well on the proposition -- cash flow coming in before anyone even looks at a house or lot and wants to buy it.
And it could be a good savings tool for people who keep thinking about buying a house but tend not to be great at saving.
And those people's friends and family might like to give them a gift card that gets spent (eventually) on something more substantial than dinner out or the latest game console.
I wonder if there are regulatory problems with the idea, or what?
* It probably popped into my head because I recently found what I consider, but Tamara doesn't, the perfect retirement spot, a nearly 1-acre lot in Golden Valley, Arizona, for single-digit-thousands of dollars. She objects to it being in the desert, being a "water haul" (i.e. no well or city water, you have a big tank and a truck comes by to fill it), etc. I was thinking about buying it anyway as an "investment" and then trying to get her out to it for a camping trip and hope she falls in love and says yeah, let's find a cheap RV to live in until we can afford to have a larger mobile home placed there.
Wordle 557 Hint
Hint: Don't feel up to Wordle today? I urge you to get on with it anyway!
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Tuesday, December 27, 2022
Wordle 556 Hint
Hint: When an apartment is for sale, not for rent, it's usually one of these.
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Monday, December 26, 2022
Fairly Short and Hopefully Spoiler-Free Review(s) -- The Knives Out Flicks
WTF?
Wordle 555 Hint
Hint: Most people do this all the time, but some people do it for a living while wearing robes (and even, in some places, wigs).
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Sunday, December 25, 2022
Brrr
Wordle 554 Hint
Hint: The holidays are a great time to treat yourself to a little bit of this.
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Saturday, December 24, 2022
Wordle 553 Hint
Hint: Obsessing over Wordle? Try to keep a sense of balance and equilibrium.
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Friday, December 23, 2022
Wordle 552 Hint
Hint: Have a heart (and one of these to handle outgoing traffic)!
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Thursday, December 22, 2022
NFL Week 16 Picks
Baltimore Ravens beat Atlanta Falcons -- 61%
Buffalo Bills beat Chicago Bears -- 91%
Cincinnati Bengals beat New England Patriots -- 53%
Detroit Lions beat Carolina Panthers -- 53%**
Tennessee Titans beat Houston Texans -- 73%
Cleveland Browns beat New Orleans Saints -- 71%
Minnesota Vikings beat New York Giants -- 79%
Kansas City Chiefs beat Seattle Seahawks -- 100%
San Francisco 49ers beat Washington Commanders -- 91%
Philadelphia Eagles beat Dallas Cowboys -- 53%*
Las Vegas Raiders beat Pittsburgh Steelers -- 53%*
Miami Dolphins beat Green Bay Packers -- 91%
Denver Broncos beat Los Angeles Rams -- 53%
Arizona Cardinals beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 53%*
Los Angeles Chargers beat Indianapolis Colts -- 53%*
Password Management: Moving On
Wordle 551 Hint
Hint: I'm good. Very good. Especially at using a particular spreadsheet application.
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Wednesday, December 21, 2022
Thirteen Days
Wordle 550 Hint
Hint: When I finally solved today's Wordle, I was over the moon about it.
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Tuesday, December 20, 2022
I Never Really Do Get Away From Google ...
Wordle 549 Hint
Hint: If your first and second guesses aren't correct, that next time may be the charm.
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Monday, December 19, 2022
Wordle 548 Hint
Hint: If Wordle ever runs for public office, it should do so as part of a group with Scrabble and Wordscapes.
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Sunday, December 18, 2022
Wordle 547 Hint
Hint: If you're feeling retro, turn off that lamp and work by the light from one of these to solve today's Wordle.
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Saturday, December 17, 2022
Odd Take, IMO
Best Mini-Vacation Ever
Wordle 546 Hint
Hint: If today's Wordle had two more of these and some truth, it would be a country song.
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Friday, December 16, 2022
Wordle 545 Hint
Hint: Today's puzzle requires further investigation. Poke and prod it a little bit.
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Thursday, December 15, 2022
Wordle 544 Hint
Hint: Why should I even give you a hint today? To the extent that Wordle is a contest, you're my opponent, right?
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Wednesday, December 14, 2022
NFL Week 15 Picks
Minnesota Vikings beat Indianapolis Colts -- 71%
Baltimore Ravens beat Cleveland Browns -- 53%
Miami Dolphins beat Buffalo Bills -- 53%*
Atlanta Falcons beat New Orleans Saints -- 53%*
Jacksonville Jaguars beat Dallas Cowboys -- 53%*
New York Jets beat Detroit Lions -- 53%
Kansas City Chiefs beat Houston Texans -- 100%
Philadelphia Eagles beat Chicago Bears-- 91%
Carolina Panthers beat Pittsburgh Steelers -- 67%
Arizona Cardinals beat Denver Broncos -- 53%*
New England Patriots beat Las Vegas Raiders -- 53%*
Cincinnati Bengals beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 79%
Tennessee Titans beat Los Angeles Chargers -- 59%*
Washington Commanders beat New York Giants -- 61%
Los Angeles Rams beat Green Bay Packers-- 53%*
Wordle 543 Hint
Hint: The type of suspects you normally round up, or the drink you normally order.
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Tuesday, December 13, 2022
NFL Week 14: I'm Your Zero
Yesterday morning, in an update to my Week 14 NFL Picks, I changed my Monday Night Football prediction in the FiveThirtyEight NFL Forecasting Game.
I didn't change my prediction as to who would win in the matchup between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals. I changed my prediction of probability from 53% to 61%.
Why? Not because I suddenly had higher expectations of New England -- because up to that point, I was at -9.8 points for the week, and a New England win at 61% probability would net me 9.8 points and make the week a wash instead of a loss. I decided to throw better "money" after what I already thought was decent "money."
New England won, 27-13.
This week, I beat FiveThirtyEight's model. I neither picked up nor lost any points, it lost 11.6 points (but it's still way ahead of me for the season, 423.5 to 61.6). I picked eight of 13 games correctly. The model picked six of 13 games correctly. In both cases where my picks disagreed with the model's, my picks were the right ones. And I'm doing better than 66% of humans playing the game.
Wordle 542 Hint
Hint: OK, who talked? Don't tell me nobody talked -- someone talked!
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Monday, December 12, 2022
I Generally Enjoy Working Outside. This, Not So Much
Wordle 541 Hint
Hint: If you're looking for a job, you'll probably have to do this.
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Sunday, December 11, 2022
Wordle 540 Hint
Hint: Don't try to bring your experience or technique to today's Wordle. Better to approach it with innocence.
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Saturday, December 10, 2022
Wordle 539 Hint
Hint: If you hear this at your front door, it may be a joke. On the other hand, it could be Walter White.
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Friday, December 09, 2022
I'm Going to Call This a Fail ...
Kirsten Sinema is a breath of fresh air in the world of politics. She is a true independent who is not afraid to buck the party line and do what she thinks is best for her constituents and the country.As a member of the United States Senate, Sinema has shown a willingness to work across the aisle and forge compromises on important issues. She has voted with the Democrats on some issues and with the Republicans on others, proving that she is not beholden to any one political ideology.In an era of intense political polarization, Sinema stands out as a leader who is willing to put the needs of the people ahead of party politics. She is not afraid to speak her mind and challenge the status quo, even if it means going against her own party.One of the most impressive things about Sinema is her ability to work with people from all walks of life. She has a reputation for being open-minded and willing to listen to others, regardless of their political beliefs. This is a rare quality in today's political climate, where too many politicians are more interested in scoring political points than in finding solutions to the problems facing our country.Sinema is also a strong advocate for issues that are important to her constituents. She has been a vocal supporter of improving the quality of education in Arizona, and she has also been a leader in the fight to protect the rights of women and the LGBTQ community.In short, Kirsten Sinema is the kind of leader that our country needs right now. She is a true independent who is not afraid to stand up for what she believes in, and she has a proven track record of working across the aisle to get things done. We need more leaders like Sinema in politics, and we are lucky to have her representing Arizona in the United States Senate.
Final Senate Prediction Outcome: Six for Five
No, I did not issue predictions for the 435 US House races, the 36 state and three territorial gubernatorial elections, etc.
I stuck to five the "toss-up" races for US Senate, because I prefer focusing on one thing and actually trying to figure out what's going to happen and why, rather than taking on everything and just guessing.
My six predictions concerning those five races were all correct. That is, I correctly predicted the November 8 general election outcome in all five, and correctly predicted this week's runoff outcome in Georgia.
Given the scope I limit myself to, I think I do a fairly good job. I've predicted 48 of 50 states (and the overall winner) correctly three presidential elections in a row.
Should I broaden my focus? I've thought about it. But covering/predicting 435 US House races, 50 quadrennial gubernatorial races, etc., in a "don't guess, rationally predict" way would be a fairly major investment of time, and probably an investment financially as well (among other things, I'd want to subscribe to Cook Political Report, which costs $350 per year) ... and I think it might move away from "fun" and toward "job," which I don't object to in principle, but I do like me some fun.
Wordle 538 Hint
Hint: If you're pulling your hair out trying to solve today's Wordle, knock that off and try a new hairstyle instead. Don't bob, weave.
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Thursday, December 08, 2022
Solar Update (w/ Mild Complaint)
NFL Week 14 Picks
I can't say that Week 13 was especially good for me -- since I always pick the Kansas City Chiefs with a 100% chance to win (it's a religious thing), I lost a whopping 75 points on their loss to the Bengals. But I did end up in positive points territory with 2.8 points (down from 97.3 last week), even though I lost an easy 20 points or so by somehow accidentally not registering my 79% pick for Dallas to beat Indianapolis. I picked nine of 15 games correctly. At the moment, I am close to, but not quite in, the top third of players in the FiveThirtyEight NFL Forecasting Game.
This week's picks:
Las Vegas Raiders beat Los Angeles Rams -- 61%
Baltimore Ravens beat Pittsburgh Steelers -- 53%*
Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns -- 71%
Dallas Cowboys beat Houston Texans -- 100%
Tennessee Titans beat Jacksonville Jaguars-- 67%
Minnesota Vikings beat Detroit Lions -- 71%
Buffalo Bills beat New York Jets -- 91%
Philadelphia Eagles beat New York Giants -- 79%
Kansas City Chiefs beat Denver Broncos -- 100%
Seattle Seahawks beat Carolina Panthers -- 91%
San Francisco 49ers beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 71%
Miami Dolphins beat Los Angeles Chargers -- 71%
New England Patriots beat Arizona Cardinals -- 53%*
Asterisks indicate where my picks disagree with the FiveThirtyEight model's predictions. Any changes to my picks will take place before game kickoffs and will be noted in updates to this post.
Update, 8:50am, Monday, December 12: With only one game left to play (Monday night's), I am changing my prediction from New England Patriots beat Arizona Cardinals -- 53%* to New England Patriots beat Arizona Cardinals -- 61%*. Not because I'm any more confident that the Patriots will beat the Cardinals than I was last Thursday, but because I am at -9.8 points for the week and a Patriots win would get me, you guessed it, 9.8 points for a net zero for the week. So far, all of my bad picks for the week have been picks that agreed with FiveThirtyEight's model, but they're only down 7.4 points because I tend to "bet bigger" than the model does. My only other pick than this one that disagreed with the model was right -- the Ravens beat the Steelers. Unfortunately, I didn't go big on that one and only picked up 2.9 points.
Wordle 537 Hint
Hint: I'm not going to just come out and explicitly give you the answer to today's Wordle. You're going to have to engage in a process of deduction, and/or induction, and/or abduction to work it out for yourself.
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Wednesday, December 07, 2022
Wordle 536 Hint
Hint: To win today's game, you'll need to saddle your horse and armor up.
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Tuesday, December 06, 2022
Wordle 535 Hint
Hint: I may be a sap, but I'm a very old sap.
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Monday, December 05, 2022
The Latest Recombobulation of my Solar Wish List Items
- No supportive fan showed up to make it happen (no surprise there -- when I post these things, I usually assume that it's me who'll eventually get around to doing them ... or not).
- The item I put on the Wish List seems to have disappeared from Amazon.
- On further reading, I see that using these "power stations" as, essentially, uninterruptable power supplies is ... not receommended.
I Have a "Campaign Spam" Theory
Wordle 534 Hint
Hint: Instead of trying to solve today's Wordle in your dreams, wait until after someone's done this for/to you.
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Sunday, December 04, 2022
Wordle 533 Hint
Hint: O Come, let us solve today's Wordle Christmas Carol style.
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Saturday, December 03, 2022
This Sounds Very Familiar ...
I wish I could give credit to whoever mentioned Balaji Srinivasan's The Network State: How To Start a New Country (not an affiliate link) within my field of vision on the Intertubes, but I can't because I can't remember who that may have been.
From the description at Amazon:
This book introduces the concept of the network state: a country you can start from your computer, a state that recruits like a startup, a nation built from the internet rather than disrupted by it.The fundamental concept behind the network state is to assemble a digital community and organize it to crowdfund physical territory. But that territory is not in one place -- it’s spread around the world, fully decentralized, hooked together by the internet for a common cause, much like Google’s offices or Bitcoin’s miners. And because every citizen has opted in, it’s a model for 100% democracy rather than the minimum threshold of consent modeled by 51% democracies.
Sounds like panarchy -- which long-time readers will know is one of my hobbyhorses -- doesn't it?
One of the great joys of Amazon Prime membership is being able to accrue credits toward digital goods by choosing "just in time" shipping versus the normal "two-day shipping" membership benefit, so I just got The Network State at a deep discount.
I'll start reading it at my earliest convenience ... but I think it may deserve more than just a review. This looks like "online book club" material. Anyone else interested in reading it and, here on the blog, discussing it chapter by chapter?