Wordle 1016 Hint

Hint: You shouldn't do today's Wordle. Heck, people disapprove of today's Wordle so strongly that you shouldn't even talk about it!

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First Letter: T

Wordle 1015 Hint

Hint: Variants of today's Wordle include (but aren't limited to) "police," "electromagnetic," and "majeure."

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First Letter: F

For Better Or Worse?

I'm thinking in terms of two scales -- one decades long, the other limited to this election cycle.

The question often posed in both cases is "are you better off now than you were then?"

On the long term, I have no doubt whatsoever about the answer. People today not only have vastly more, but mostly better and cheaper, options for just about everything than they did 50 years ago.

Think about your phone, and your phone bill, back then. You paid more for local land line service, using a device tethered to the wall of your home, than a basic (long distance included instead of outrageously priced by the minute) cell plan costs today. And you can get phones that are cheaper than those old ones were, fit in your pocket, and go wherever you go. If you want to pay more, for a "smart" phone, you also get a tiny mobile computer that's probably more far powerful than the ones on spacecraft of that era.

Most stuff is better now than then, and most stuff costs less now than it did then in terms of hours one must work to afford it.

But of course, in politics, the "then" is four years ago.

I'm not sure the question is really fair to Donald Trump, because four years ago we were sinking into the authoritarian COVID-19 panic, and now we're mostly out of that panic. While Trump didn't handle any of that very well (remember when he invoked War Communism to force the manufacture of ventilators -- which the market ended up providing before he could fully go through with it?).

Trying to correct for the COVID-19 stuff, do you think you're better off or worse off now than you were four years ago? And do you credit or blame Joe Biden or Donald Trump for that conclusion? That seems to be the big question politicians are asking -- and trying to provide answers for -- right now.

Wordle 1014 Hint

Hint: An actual kingdom, or a metaphor for one.

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First Letter: R

Wordle 1013 Hint

Hint: Instead of just reading this hint, say it out loud.

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New to Wordle? You can play it at the New York Times, and here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: S

Election 2024: Now The Going Gets Weird (And Maybe The Weird Turn Pro)

So far, in terms of "nuts and bolts election analysis," I've tried to remain reasonably phlegmatic.

Yes, Trump has a huge weak spot in the form of "Republican, but not that guy" primary voters who might stay home or defect.

Yes, Biden has several huge weak spots, including his handling of Gaza (resulting in "uncommitted" primary voters and possible future abstentions/defections), his obvious mental/cognitive deficits (which doesn't seem to hurt Trump nearly as badly), etc.

But so far, I've taken something of a "comes out in the wash" attitude toward those.

And so far, I've treated Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. as a "potential five percent fly in someone's -- probably mostly Trump's -- ointment."

But yesterday he became the biggest third party / independent factor since Ross Perot, and maybe bigger than that.

His vice-presidential pick, Nicole Shanahan, is a multi-billionaire (the estimate I've seen is a net worth of $10 billion).

Presidential and vice-presidential candidates are allowed, even under the US government's draconian campaign finance laws, to spend unlimited amounts of their own money on their own campaigns.

The most recent numbers I've noticed have Biden with more than $150 million in cash on hand, Trump with more than $40 million.

Shanahan can presumably, should she choose, pump a billion dollars or more of her own money into the RFK campaign.

That doesn't necessarily mean RFK can win the election. But it does mean he can completely change how the campaigns are conducted and have a huge effect on how things play out.

Shit's about to get weird, folks.

Convention Wear, En Route

I've wanted one of these t-shirts for years anyway. They're available in many places and at many prices. I grabbed mine from Amazon because I had some gift certificate credit sitting there:

Wordle 1012 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle did cause me some sudden pain, but that's all over now.

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First Letter: S

Ah, A New Research Study!

Starting on May 1, I'll be participating in a flu vaccine study. Three appointments in the first week, but it tails off after that.

And yes, I'll even be getting paid. Which is nice. But mainly I think it's cool to be part of research.

So I'm going to recommend that if you think it's cool to be part of research, you join an organization called All Of Us. They're not, so far as I know, involved in the study I just mentioned (that study is being done by SIMED health on behalf of [I haven't bothered to check yet], the same organization that ran the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine trial I participated in), but they do a lot of cool stuff. For example, I've received DNA information from them that, while probably not quite as detailed, resembles the kind you'd get from companies that charge you to have a DNA sample analyzed (ancestry components, possible health conditions to watch out for, etc.).

I'm sure some of you actively avoid giving your DNA to anyone, and I understand why. Personally, I figure that if the gummint wants my DNA, it either already has it or will get it regardless of what I do, so it was an easy ask for me. To each their own.

Wordle 1011 Hint

Hint: Think LaGuardia, or Pepin the Short.

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First Letter: M

A Couple of Early Thoughts on the Libertarian National Convention

The formal theme of this year's Libertarian National Convention is "Become Ungovernable."

The real theme for most of the delegates I've been talking to is "OK, we shit the bed in 2022; this year, we're trying to hose ourselves off and get the stains out of the sheets."

Which, to me, means that, unlike most presidential nomination years, less media coverage is better.

But if RFK Jr. throws in -- as he seems to be considering, and as he's seemingly being encouraged to do by the current chair of the Libertarian National Committee -- the media coverage suddenly goes on steroids.

I frankly doubt that he'd get the nomination, but I don't think that's the point from McArdle's vantage point.

I think the Mises PAC's goal (the Mises PAC currently controls the LNC, and McArdle was their pick for chair in 2022) is to make the Libertarian Party look so weird and stupid that even Donald Trump is preferable. And I've pretty much always thought that, and their actions have pretty much always tended to confirm it.

Some otherwise undecided voters would give up on the LP as a prospective vote this year if the party nominated RFK Jr. because he's "fringe." And if it didn't nominate him, other undecided voters would give up on the LP as a prospective vote because hell, what kind of party doesn't nominate someone with huge name recognition and, after his VP selection, possibly a lot of money?

Having him in the nomination mix is pretty much a lose-lose for the party, but a lose-win (if he's nominated, the votes lost probably go to Biden; if he's not nominated, the votes lost probably go to Trump) for the Mises PAC. And since they look set to lose control of the party, they're willing to take a chance on getting some more damage done on their way out.

Wordle 1010 Hint

Hint: If used as a proper noun, today's Wordle is long, tall, and drives a 1965 Mustang.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1009 Hint

Hint: Knowing where today's Wordle is comes in handy, especially if you're 1) wet, 2) a galactic hitchhiker, or 3) both.

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First Letter: T

Still Not Going Down The Road, But Also Not Feeling Nearly As Bad

Whatever it was that got me -- flu bug of some kind, maybe? -- seems to be receding. So I got a Garrison Center column written today.

I don't think it's my best (one way to tell I'm having a hard time is the length -- the longer it is, the more trouble it gave me, and this is smack at my 500-word limit), but it got written. So there's that, anyway.

Mostly, I am chilling, consuming fluids, and watching TV, so that I can hopefully be back on my game tomorrow or Monday.

As to TV, not Suits -- season 4 gets suddenly and massively even "soapier" than the first three seasons. I'm taking a break from it and may or may not try to get back to it.

I am, however, on the second episode of the 8-episode Netflix series 3 Body Problem, and so far it's quite compelling. The episodes cover the first volume of a trilogy of novels, and I'm assuming the other two volumes are already, or soon will be, in the pipe. I haven't read those novels. Yet.

Wordle 1008 Hint

Hint: The word for your status if you were dead, but aren't anymore.

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First Letter: R

Not Going Down the Road, But ...

I felt terrible yesterday. So terrible that I ended up not getting a Garrison Center column written. Bad enough to see if COVID-19 is making the rounds in my area again in a big way (it isn't). No fever, just some cough, stomach upset, and general body aches.

I don't feel worse today, but I'm not sure yet whether I feel much better either. Maybe as the day goes on, I will, and feel up to knocking out a late mid-week column today and a weekend column on Sunday. If not, I'll probably just do a weekend column on Saturday and chalk up a miss. A nap should resolve the question!

Wordle 1007 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle is just nothing but rot.

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First Letter: D

The March Through May Austerity Agenda

As you may have inferred from a previous post, I'll be attending the Libertarian National Convention in Washington, DC over Memorial Day weekend.*

Thanks to the generosity of one of this blog's readers who seems to enjoy my company for reasons I can't fathom, my travel and lodging expenses are covered so that I can accompany him. Since Jimmy Carter was living in the White House the last time I saw it, there's no way I'm turning down a chance to visit DC again, hopefully with time to revisit some of its features and visit others for the first time.

But outside travel and lodging, I have a standing personal "bring cash" rule: At least $100 per day for any multi-day trip to cover things like food, drink, and local transport with a reasonable "cushion" for semi-emergencies.

Therefore, I am saving my pennies so as to amass the cash reserve in question. I won't be missing any meals unless I'm just not hungry, but I also won't be buying electric dog-polishers or other frivolous things, and I am also going to put off the school for getting my motorcycle license, and the question of buying a bigger scooter, until June.

At this point, I'm actually more intent on getting the license than I am on getting the vehicle anyway. Having the license means I have the ability to buy and license the vehicle any time I get around to it, which means I can just keep an eye out for a good deal while continuing to putter around town on my perfectly good, though slow, 50cc machine, which is licensed through late November anyway (I'll probably keep it to hand off to my youngest, but if not, why waste the entire remaining eight months of "it's legal" time by selling or trading it right now?).

* I won't necessarily be a delegate to the convention, with the power to debate and vote on e.g. the presidential nomination, party leadership, proposed platform amendments, etc. But I'll be staying at the convention hotel, socializing with party activists (many of whom I've known for nearly 30 years), maybe doing volunteer work for caucuses and candidates I support, etc.

Wordle 1006 Hint

Hint: Looking for the answer to today's Wordle? It's under that tree over there.

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First Letter: S

Election 2024: More Bad News for Trump

Florida held its presidential primary yesterday.

Let me get the bad news for Democrats out of the way first. There was no Democratic presidential primary.

The Democratic Party asked that one not be held because there was supposedly no significant opposition to incumbent Joe Biden.

But the presidential primary drives turnout to local and county elections ... and Republicans romped in those elections, because most Democratic voters didn't bother to vote. That was a huge own-goal driven entirely by fear of Biden getting embarrassed.

But back to a theme you may be getting tired of hearing from me:

Trump broke 80% in the GOP primary ... barely. 81.19%.

18.81% of Florida GOP voters didn't want him.

And worse, the bulk of that non-Trump vote did not go to "favorite son" Ron DeSantis, the incumbent governor, who was still on the ballot even though he dropped out after Iowa. He only knocked down 3.68%.

Nikki Haley, who also dropped out (after Super Tuesday) took 13.86%.

Trump won Florida by 1.2% in 2016 (after winning the primary with only 45.72%), then got more popular, winning the 2020 GOP primary with 93.79% of the vote and beating Biden by 3.35% in November.

Granted, in 2020, Trump was a de jure, rather than merely de facto, incumbent as he is this year. But it should still worry him that about 1 in 7 Republican voters chose an anti-Trump alternative rather than Trump himself or his "favorite son" Mini-Me.

High Democratic turnout and 1 in 7 Republicans either too apathetic to vote at all, or so anti-Trump that they pick Biden, could put the state in play.

And I expect extra-high Democratic turnout in November in Florida, as there will almost certainly be two ballot measures (abortion protections and recreational marijuana legalization) well-suited to driving that turnout.

"In play" doesn't necessarily mean that Florida goes blue. But it does mean Trump and the GOP being forced to pour money and work into Florida -- money and work that can't be used in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, or Wisconsin, all of which Trump will probably have to win to win the election.

In Which I Agree With Someone Else, and Elaborate as to Why

Kevin D. Williamson at The Dispatch:

Graciela Mochkofsky, dean of CUNY’s graduate school of journalism, has a proposal for the education of new journalists. Headline: 'One Way to Help a Journalism Industry in Crisis: Make J-School Free.' ... Undergraduate journalism education is an entirely worthless endeavor, and journalism majors would be far better off studying almost anything else, from economics to French novels; graduate journalism education is a mostly worthless endeavor, and the real value of prestigious programs such as Columbia’s is in signaling and networking.

While I'm not sure I'd go so far as "entirely worthless" -- to the extent that J-School may teach very specific technical skills for certain varieties of journalism (I'm thinking of video editing and such), it may be useful -- the main elements of every kind of journalism are combined functions of three things:

1. Spelling, grammar, and sentence construction that are taught (or at least used to be taught) at the elementary and junior high school levels;
2. The five point lede formula, which I learned in a single one-hour session of my junior high school newspaper's class; and
3. For specialized variants -- everything from sports to weather to opinion journalism -- experience or education in the specialization rather than the journalism proper.

A story I've told before, maybe even on this blog:

When I was in elementary school, I started an independent weekly student newspaper. Nothing especially racy, and nothing especially good (the only feature I recall is "Guitar Chord of the Week."

Around that time (age 12), my oldest brother, who knew I wanted to be a writer (I wanted to be JRR Tolkien or Robert Heinlein, but I don't think he really noticed that distinction), made me an offer: If I would attend meetings of the Laclede County, Missouri Beekeepers' Association and take notes, I could write those notes up and the local newspaper, the Lebanon Daily Record, would publish them. That's when I became a "journalist." Not a good one, I'm sure.  The main thing I learned from that experience was how to cram X agenda items into Y words to fit the paper's maximum allowed count.

I got the five point lede education in my first day or three on my junior high newspaper, and was off to the races. After the junior high paper, I applied and was accepted by the high school's "cultural journalism" magazine (Bittersweet); that happened to be the magazine's last year of publication. I spent my junior and senior years on the high school newspaper. I also participated in a couple of fanzine projects.

At some point in my junior year, I saw that the aforementioned Lebanon Daily Record was advertising for a part-time reporter. I was called for an interview.

As it happened, I'd made a mistake on my application. It's a mistake I've made many times: Under "date of birth," I accidentally used the current year (1983 or 1984) instead of my birth year. So the first question at the interview was "how old are you?" and when I replied that I was 16 or 17 (I forget which), I was told that I couldn't be hired because they needed an 18-year-old.

I was also told that mine had been the single best resume the editor had received. that felt good.

I went on to write for my college newspaper, do some occasional local stringing in another town, and become first a frequently published letter-to-the-editor writer, then an occasionally assigned op-ed writer, and a "public representative" member of the editorial board, for a 60k+ circulation daily, with occasional publication in larger newspapers and national magazines (hanks to that newfangled Internet thing).

After which I moved back to my home town, saw another part-time reporter ad in that hometown daily, and applied, with an updated resume. Again, I was called for an interview. Again, although I wasn't told so, I'm reasonably sure that mine was the best resume on the (new, younger) editor's pile.

But this time the first question was: Where did you go to journalism school?

The answer, of course, was that I hadn't.

And he wasn't going to hire anyone for his (usually four-page daily, eight-page Sunday) 5,000 or less circulation daily, which I mainly read each day to count the typos and grammatical errors, who hadn't gone to journalism school.

At least that's what he said. Maybe it was because I had burst out laughing when he asked.

I am far from the most accomplished journalist in my county, let alone the world. But I'm also a far more accomplished journalist than many who went to J-School.

In my opinion, if you don't already have a decent grasp of journalism by the time you apply for J-School, you have no business going to J-School.

And, also in my opinion, if you do already have a decent grasp of journalism by the time you apply for J-School, you don't really need J-School as such. You should major in something around or adjacent to the kind of journalism you want to do (sports management, meteorology, music, political science, etc.), and see if there are a few specifically J-School type electives that might be useful to you.

And finally, again, in my opinion, if you're looking to hire a journalist, you should look for someone who's learned, or is equipped to quickly learn, the practice of the kind of journalism you're after, not someone who's graduated from a school supposedly teaching the general skill.

Wordle 1005 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle usually refers to a professional or other "in-group" specific subset of language.

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First Letter: L

Just In Case ...

... I should happen to be in Washington, DC over Memorial Day weekend; and

... some state delegation should happen to have an empty delegate slot it needs/wants to fill; and

... that state should happen to accept out-of-state Libertarian Party members as delegates.

Been Scootin'

 

Finally took the time to get an accurate mileage test (fill to the brim, run until nearly empty, refill to the brim, divide miles traveled by gallons of gas it takes to refill). A little over 80 miles per gallon. In theory I should be getting more like 100mpg, but I mostly take short trips, and starting an engine uses more gas than running it.

Wordle 1004 Hint

Hint: The Dude does this.

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First Letter: A

Dog Bites Man: It's the Government's Fault, as Usual

Per Julian Roberts-Grmela at The Daily Beast:

The press release was an endorsement of adaptive driving beams (ADB), a headlight technology that has been available in Europe and Canada for years but which was just legalized for installation in the U.S. in 2022. ... NBC News reported that there are no vehicles with ADB headlights available for sale in the U.S. Brumbelow said that it’s still “a few years away” before ADB headlights will be available to U.S. consumers. The reason that consumers can’t buy cars with ADB lights, despite the law enabling them to since 2022, is due to NHTSA regulations that came along with their legalization of the technology, according to [Mathew Brumbelow, a senior research engineer at the vehicle research center at the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS)].

The usual arc of automotive improvements (whether they're about safety or anything else) is:

1. Something's invented that makes things better; but
2. The US government prevents it from being adopted; until
3. The US government makes it adoptable, but only under idiotic conditions;
4. The US government finally allows it to be adopted; then
5. The US government requires it to be adopted whether the car companies are ready to adopt it or not and whether customers want to buy it or not.

This thing is at stage 3.

I'd rather it never reached stage 5, but I think that at stage 4 it would at least get WIDELY adopted, and would thus HELP WITH several problems, including pedestrian deaths at night and high-beam glare blinding people (something I have a problem with, especially when my eyeglass prescription needs updating).

And such things should go from stage 1 to stage 4 with no intervening steps, in about 30 seconds.

Wordle 1003 Hint

Hint: You don't need to eat your Wheaties [TM] before getting to work on today's Wordle, but a bowl of farro wouldn't hurt.

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First Letter: S

The Very Short Case Against The TikTok Ban Bill

1. Code is speech;
2. TikTok is code; therefore
3. TikTok is speech; and
4. "Congress shall make no law ... abridging the freedom of speech"

Wordle 1002 Hint

Hint: A nosy noise, or perhaps a single shot of bourbon.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 1001 Hint

Hint: Humans just get to pick our poison; some other creatures make their own.

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First Letter: T

Wordle 1000 Hint

Hint: Singular, think lava. Plural, think rash.

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First Letter: E

Wordle 999 Hint

Hint: The period intervening between "that was then" and "this is now."

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First Letter: S

Election 2024: Georgia On My Mind

There were three presidential primaries in the US yesterday, and one of them was Georgia, one of the four "toss-up" states in play according to 270 to Win (the other three are Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin).

Absent some kind of major realignment between now and November, Joe Biden only has to win one of those "toss-up" states to win the election, while Trump has to win all four.

In 2020, Trump lost Georgia to Biden by less than one quarter of one percent of the vote.

My perception is that since that time the overall lean of the state has moved toward the GOP.

But it's still likely to be close.

And it isn't looking as good for Trump as I'd have expected it to.

More than 15% of the vote went to candidates who've either dropped out of the race or that nobody's ever heard of.

The bulk of that "no way I'm voting for Trump even though he's the only one left" vote (13.23%) went to Nikki Haley.

If even one-third of non-Trump voters stay home or vote third party or Democrat in November, Trump almost certainly loses that Georgia again.

Wordle 998 Hint

Hint: Like Thornton Wilder's Our Town, (or, in my case, Lanford Wilson's Talley's Folly), today's Wordle hits pretty close to home.

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First Letter: L

Suits: A Couple of Questions For People Who Have Watched the Whole Series and/or Lawyers

CAUTION -- SPOILERS BELOW

REALLY -- IF YOU DON'T WANT SPOILERS FOR THE SHOW SUITS, STOP READING HERE

OK, THIRD WARNING AND THIS SHOULD HAVE USED ENOUGH SPACE AT THE TOP OF THE SCREEN FOR YOU TO NOT HAVE INADVERTENTLY SEEN ANYTHING YOU DIDN'T WANT TO SEE, RIGHT?

OK, so I'm in the second season of Suits. I didn't think the show would really captivate me, but it's pretty damn good. Thing is, I have a couple of questions that, if answered, will be at least semi-spoilers. If you do answer it,  I don't need a bunch of additional spoilers. It's just been bugging the hell out of me.

Suits is the story of a kid with eidetic memory who, due to a series of random but harrowing events, finds himself employed as a lawyer, even though he didn't graduate college, didn't go to law school, etc.

The lack of a law degree is taken care of early on, thanks to a hacker his work involves him with. He's got a law degree from Harvard that, if checked with Harvard, checks out. If anyone looks for an undergraduate degree from anywhere, though, they don't find one (that does come up).

What's never mentioned in the first season and some of the second, though, is the issue of him taking the bar exam, being admitted to the bar, and getting a license to practice law in New York.

Question #1, for those who have watched the whole series: Does any of that ever come up during the series? Since so far quite a bit of the series is about his dirty little secret, it seems like a good hook to keep working that theme on. If it does come up, I don't need to know the details. I'd just like to know if it comes up, or if it doesn't.

Question #2, for lawyers or others familiar with the courts in New York: Do the courts even check that? For example, are lawyers required to put a license number or bar association member number on court filings or any such thing? Or can anyone just put on a suit, walk into a courtroom, pretend to be a lawyer, and not get nabbed unless he screws up in a big way? I'm asking because if it doesn't come up during the show, but would in real life, that seems like a major flaw.

Side Note, for readers: The Rooster Bar is not John Grisham's best novel, but it's not terrible either, and it's based on a similar premise (some law school students decide to just forego getting their degrees, passing the bar, etc., and start taking cases). If you're into legal thrillers, etc., you might want to give it a look.

Wordle 997 Hint

Hint: One might do this with a heavy object and a "ho," or with a sigh.

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First Letter: H

Wordle 996 Hint

Hint: Personally, I found today's Wordle annoying.

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First Letter: P

Perhaps As Soon As Next Weekend ...

... I plan to get the required education for a motorcycle endorsement to my driver's license. I've got the money put back for the class. It's just a matter of scheduling convenience, and I figure any time between now and May works fine.

Why between now and May? Because when the university breaks for summer, I expect to see quite a few used scooters on the market, some of which will likely be in the 150cc-250cc range.

I've been looking at motorcycles, and may start leaning more toward them after I take the classes and find out how comfortable I am with a manual transmission on a two-wheeled vehicle. But at the moment a scooter still sounds good to me, and I've been reevaluating whether I really need a 250cc or larger.

A 150cc can technically hit the required minimum speeds for the freeway. I wouldn't want to travel substantial freeway distances on one, but one exit to the next, no big deal.

The more I think about it, the more I think I wouldn't really do the traveling I fantasize about doing just because I had a "comfortably cruises at 70+mph" vehicle to do it on.

And the more I think about it, the more I think that if I did want to make a fairly long trip or two, I could just map the routes to keep me on the smaller highways.

I could do 480 miles in a day on the 150cc (assuming 12 hours averaging 40mph, accounting for gas stops and such even though I'd top out at 55-60), and how often am I going to need to do more than 480 miles one-way? So often that I really, really, really need to be able to do 600 miles per day instead (12 hours averaging 50mph, even though I'd top out at 70-80)?.

New Orleans is 602 miles from my house (on an "avoid highways" map). If necessary, I could to that in one really long day on the smaller scooter.

Key West is 485 miles. Miami, 345. Atlanta, 367. Those are one-day one-way trips. And even if I had a bigger scooter and got there faster, I wouldn't be going to any of those places without planning to stay at least one night.

Los Angeles is 2,535 miles away. Riding 12 hours a day, averaging 40mph, a little over five days. Riding 12 hours a day, averaging 50mph, a little over four days (I could use the freeways, but that would only save me about 135 miles).

So, two days less for a less-scenic  round trip. But how often do I plan to ride to Los Angeles and back? Not more than once. And even that once, I'd be planning to make multiple stops of one or more days anyway, and keeping those stops a little bit shorter -- getting back on the road an hour or two earlier -- would make up some of the time difference from the big scooter.

Meanwhile, back home (which would be 99% of the time), the bigger scooter would have cost more, it would use more gas, it would require more expensive insurance payments, etc. than the smaller scooter.

So yeah, I'm leaning 150cc. It has plenty of power for the country roads in my area, and enough for lengthy excursions in moderation.

Wordle 995 Hint

Hint: Think of today's Wordle as a gripping experience, even if your reach seems to exceed it.

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First Letter: G

Wordle 994 Hint

Hint: Motivational gymnastics, usually in support of other sports.

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First Letter: C

Wordle 993 Hint

Hint: Want to solve Wordle before I post my hint each day? This is when you should get started.

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First Letter: E

Wordle 992 Hint

Hint: Identical, a la Dolly or Boba.

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First Letter: C

Election 2024: What I Learned From Super Tuesday

On the Democratic side, the lesson is simple: If Biden intends to stay in the presidential race, he needs to find a way to flip the script on Israel/Gaza. In Minnesota, 19% of primary voters went "uncommitted" or "no preference." In North Carolina, 13%. Iowa, 4%. In Massachusetts, 9%. Alabama, 6%. Tennessee, 8%. Colorado, 8%. Some of those states are "safe" states that he's either definitely or definitely not going to win in November. Others are closer, maybe close enough that depressed Democratic turnout and/or third party votes from usual Democrats could change the outcome. I'm not convinced that Biden does intend to stay in the presidential race, though. And if he does, I suspect he's preparing some Israel/Palestine moves that might get some of those voters back.

On the Republican side ... of the 15 states in play yesterday, Trump only broke 80% in three (Alaska, Alabama, and Oklahoma), failed to even top 75% in seven (Utah, Colorado, Minnesota, North Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Maine), and lost Vermont.

At present, 270 to Win lists four states as "tossups" -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin. It also evaluates the Democrats as having 267 electoral votes in safe, likely, or leaning Democrat territory, to the Republicans' 219.

Let's make a conservative prediction or two about what happens if Trump loses even a fraction of Republicans who preferred Haley. They don't vote, or they vote third party, or worst of all they completely flip and go for Biden.

Let's be conservative:

Let's pretend that Trump is averaging 80% among Republican voters, even though the actual percentage is much lower.

And let's pretend that 75% of the voters who didn't support him versus Haley will, however reluctantly, still vote for him in November.

And let's further pretend that all of that 5% just stay home or vote third party instead of voting Biden (that is, adding a vote to Biden's column in addition to subtracting a vote from Trump's column).

Basically, let's pretend that only 5% of Republican votes will abandon Trump in November.

In Arizona in 2020, Trump lost to Biden by 0.3%.

In Georgia in 2020, Trump lost to Biden by 0.23%.

In Wisconsin in 2020, Trump lost to Biden by 0.63%.

In Michigan in 2020, Trump lost to Biden by 2.78%.

There's no "tossup" state in which Trump can afford to lose 5% of his 2020 support and still win the election.

Now, go look at those electoral vote numbers again.

Biden needs one of those four  "tossup" states to win the election. Trump needs all four.

What I learned from Super Tuesday (and already pretty much knew) was that if the election was tomorrow and if someone put a gun to my head and forced me to bet $100 on the outcome, I'd be wise to put that money on a Biden win.

The election is eight months away and a lot can happen.

The question is, who will whatever happens be better or worse for?

Wordle 991 Hint

Hint: You must be having trouble with today's Wordle -- you look like you're about to cry.

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First Letter: T

"If You Like This, Tell Someone" -- So I Am

On each episode of Reason Roundtable Podcast, the panel participants each talk about "what we are consuming this week."

On this week's episode, Nick Gillespie discussed Andrew Hickey's podcast, A History of Rock Music in 500 Songs.

Like many podcasters, Hickey seeks/accepts listener support via Patreon, merch sales, etc. But he also makes a point at the end of each episode to ask listeners to tell their friends about the podcast if they like it.

Oh, I like it.

I'm listening to each episode in sequence from the beginning (he's at 172 songs so far), even if a glance tells me I might not find it interesting.

So far, of the nine episodes I've listened to, not a single boring moment. I'm learning a whole lot about musicians I already knew something about and admired (Django Reinhardt and Les Paul come to mind), and about musicians I should have been familiar with (for example, Rosetta Tharpe and The Ink Spots).

If you are into music -- specifically rock music and the genres that preceded and formed it -- your time will be well spent on A History of Rock Music in 500 Songs, even if you pick and choose your episodes instead of taking the whole ride like I am.

Wordle 990 Hint

Hint: Instead of using a logical process of substitution/elimination, try solving today's Wordle by following an intuition.

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First Letter: H

Anyone Here Use Android for Text Editing?

And if so, what's your favored app?

I use, and prefer, Geany on my Linux desktop.

I'm hoping to recreate my desktop work environment  -- tabbed web browser, tabbed text editor, Dropbox for work files -- as closely as possible for the tablet that's supposed to arrive on Wednesday.

If I can come up with a usable clone of that work setup, the tablet with Bluetooth keyboard and wireless mouse might work as a "travel work setup" that's much more convenient for, say, motorcyle transport than my current laptop/travel monitor rig.

Of course, I'd eventually like to deploy a tiny desktop computer (perhaps the ATOPNUC Mini PC that's sitting its box since I upgraded to the CyberGeek Nano J1 Linux Mini PC) with two mini HDMI projectors as "monitors," and a foldable full-size keyboard for "travel work" purposes.

Wordle 989 Hint

Hint: All I have to say about today's Wordle is burn, baby, burn!

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First Letter: F

Fairly Short and Hopefully Spoiler-Free Review: Dune Part 2

But first, let me point you at, and briefly reconsider, my review of Part 1. I rewatched Part 1 at home last week in anticipation of seeing Part 2 (which Tamara and I did at the theater last night), and now I think I was harder on it than it deserved.

Trailers:

TL;DR:

Part 2, added to Part 1, completes the basic story line of the source material, Frank Herbert's 1965 novel. It does so with significant deviations from canon, several of which I find personally dissatisfying. But taken togther, the two films -- total running time about 320 minutes! -- get the job done pretty well.

Longer version:

I'm crotchety about film adaptations abandoning canon. For example, the omission of Tom Bombadil and Glorfindel from Peter Jackson's Lord of the Rings. It bugs me.

That said, any adaptation of a hefty novel or series of novels is going to have to make sacrifices because, well, time.

I noticed the canon sacrifices less in David Lynch's 1984 version of Dune than in this one because ... well, because I hadn't read the book. I'd tried, but just couldn't get past the first 30 pages without starting to get lost in the details. The friends I went with bellyached about omissions, etc., but what the movie did for me was make the novel accessible. I've since read it at least five times, probably more. So now, the canon sacrifices pop right out at me.

Since I don't want to include spoilers, I can't really detail them, except for one, and the explanation for it: Mentats and the Spacing Guild were barely noticeable in Part 1 and are pretty much completely absent from Part 2. A web piece I read the other day explained that this is because director Denis Villeneuve knew he could only do one angle justice and chose the Bene Gesserit as his focus.

One thing I really like about this adaptation is that it sets up "Part 3" and one, i.e. the novels Dune Messia and Children of Dune. Lynch's version treated the first novel as a self-contained story with a positive ending. If you've read the novel you there's no "happily ever after" at its end. There's still plenty of bad shit to come. I won't call the ending a cliffhanger. Rather I'll simply note that it's not an ending.

Great special effects. Great music. Austin Butler absolutely kills it as Feyd Rautha; I was interesting to see if his Elvis turn was one-time lightning in a bottle. It isn't. That guy is good.

Worth seeing. But obviously you have to see Part 1 first, and it would really pay to read the novel, watch the Lynch version, and see if you can find the early 2000s SciFi Channel mini-series (which I haven't seen since its initial run and don't remember well enough to review here) as well. Dune is a planet, but Dune is a universe, and apparently one which Villeneuve, like Herbert and his son and other collaborators, intends to return to in both future and past. Its past is especially relevant now that we're in the age of AI (look up "Butlerian Jihad" for more information if you're lazy).

A Sort of Walmart Potpourri Post

First Walmart potpourri item:

My household recently switched from Instacart to Walmart+ for our "stuff delivered on demand."

Well, OK, we didn't initially switch, but rather bought a one-year Walmart+ membership because we were offered a deep discount and because it comes with Paramount+ streaming, which is nice but not something I was willing to pay for a la carte.

It works well for us. Tamara does a lot of our shopping at Walmart anyway, so the down side of not being able to pick different stores (but not Walmart, at least locally) for Instacart is greatly ameliorated. She's spending less time at the damn store, she's not having to do as much lifting, etc. (when I'm with her at the store, I do the lifting, but I'm usually not with her because she stops there on her way home from work).

So, I'm planning to end our "premium" Instacart subscription as soon as Tamara gives me the OK. We might use them occasionally, but I'll just pay the "non-premium" delivery fee instead of forking over monthly.

No affiliate link or anything, but I do recommend the service if grocery (and everything else Walmart carries) delivery is something you're looking for.

Second Walmart potpourri item:

I'm not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.

As I've mentioned many times, one of the ways I use cryptocurrency is buying gift cards for places we use (Amazon, Walmart, etc.). When it's up, I buy a little. For Walmart, I've occasionally bought them and added them to our Walmart account myself, while other times just giving the number/PIN to Tamara.

When we bought the Walmart+ membership, it didn't show up when I went into the Walmart account on my computer. On closer inspection, I realized that not nearly all the gift card credit I'd bought was in my "wallet," nor were there purchases to explain the discrepancy.

Here's the discrepancy: We don't have a Walmart account. I have one, and Tamara has one. And the Walmart+ account is hers. For some reason I've managed to go for years without ever noticing this.

So, there was a balance in my Walmart account that couldn't be used for Walmart+ grocery deliveries.

Over the last month or so, I've used it to buy things that are shipped, and come with "free" shipping, even for non-Walmart+ members. This morning I decided to use some of it as, well, "mad money."

I've been interested in a "cooling, weighted blanket" for some time, but the prices I found were never right. This morning, one price was right. So I grabbed it.

I've also been thinking for some time about buying an Android tablet, but it was fairly low on my desire list. I already have a touchscreen fold-over Chromebook that can be used as a "tablet" and runs Android apps. I've had that for a year or two. It's my travel computer, and works OK for that purpose. A little too heavy to use as a household tablet, though.

This morning, for about $100, I found a well-reviewed, 10", Android 13 tablet with bluetooth keyboard, wireless mouse, stylus, and case that doubles as a stand.  In other words, something that might work as a replacement "travel computer" and is light enough to do tablet stuff that I don't normally do, like sitting around playing Android games, or watching streaming media, or reading Kindle books. And at a not unreasonable price. Worth taking a chance on, especially since, if it doesn't meet my needs, it will almost certainly be welcomed by some other household member.

If nothing else, I'll have two items I can review here on the blog.

I Just Had An Idea For A Humanitarian Project

Over the years, I've occasionally read news stories about volunteers who venture into the US/Mexico border area and leave supplies -- food and water -- for immigrants who are crossing wilderness areas to avoid molestation by various armed gangs, including but not limited to the "US Border Patrol" and "Immigration and Customs Enforcement" gangs. For example, here's a story on four such activists , members of a group called "No More Deaths," who had their convictions reversed.

I'm not sure why I was thinking about that this morning, but I was ... and it occurred to me that there's another migrant need which a volunteer humanitarian project could work to fill.

Step One: Develop and/or procure inexpensive "one-shot" handguns, similar (or even identical) to the old FP-45 Liberator.

Step Two: Leave them and ammunition (perhaps with some food and water, too!) in border areas where the aforementioned gangs tend to operate, so that migrants have something to defend themselves with if attacked.

I happen to dislike people dying, but if someone's going to die I would rather it was a Border Patrol / ICE gang-banger than an innocent migrant. And while I'm not a utilitarian, it occurs to me that there's probably some threshold of gang-banger casualties that would lead to the gang-bangers fucking off and leaving the migrants alone, reducing both the overall body count and the incidence of abductions.

Wordle 988 Hint

Hint: The world's largest cult, with a sub-sect that seeks/supports/believes in the cult's omnipotence. Since only libertarians are likely to get that hint, here's a second: Think Utah or Quintana Roo.

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First Letter: S

How Airdrops COULD Be Effective In Feeding Gaza's Hungry

Summary: With aid truck convoys facing difficulty delivering food into Gaza and Israeli troops murdering those who go out to meet the trucks when they do get through, the US regime is considering "airdrops" of food aid.

Daniel Larison:

Airdrops are far too unreliable and inefficient. They cannot deliver aid at sufficient scale to make much of a difference. They are used only as a very last resort in situations where no other options are available.

And:

 

The proposed use of airdrops is a pathetic attempt to make it look as if our government is trying to feed the people that its own policies are helping Israel to starve and kill.

The first claim is almost certainly true.

As for the second, well, maybe.

Or maybe not.

What if the actual objective of the airdrops is to produce a confrontration with Israel that allows the Biden regime to materially alter its position on the conflict while saving face and not being seen as "supporting Hamas?"

US transport planes conducting airdrops will presumably be escorted by combat aircraft to protect them from surface-to-air missiles, drones, etc.

What happens when one of those planes gets shot at -- successfully or not, for real or just in the combat pilots' judgment? You know it will happen.

And what happens when Israeli claims that the culprit was, say, a Hamas Strela-2 shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile but the US regime says no, it was, say, an Israeli SPYDER surface-to-air missile?

What happens, most likely, is that Biden publicly informs the Israelis that henceforth aid will be delivered by truck, escorted by US Marines on the ground and by US aircraft above, and that anyone or anything getting in its way will be destroyed. That might get tested ... and if it did the IDF would quickly find itself minus some weapons systems and troops.

Not that I favor that particular course, mind you, but I could see it going that way. Biden would regain some support from Democratic supporters of the Palestinians, while positioning himself as trying to feed the hungry, not hamper Israel's ability to wage war in Gaza, even though the whole thing would have the latter effect.

Wordle 987 Hint

Hint: Eight popes (and one cowboy called Bud).

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First Letter: U

Wordle 986 Hint

Hint: They started out as thieves, but when they tried their hands at assassination Morgiana bested them.

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First Letter: F

Thanks For Asking! -- 03/01/24

Yay! It's the first of the month! Let's make this AMA thing happen!

• Ask me anything (yeah, anything) in the comment thread below this post
• I'll answer in comments or somewhere linked from comments

Hit it.