Not the Best Look, Congresswoman Demings

I get lots of political emails.

In the last 24 hours, I've received two Florida-related political emails that draw an interesting contrast.

One is from US Senator Rick Scott (R): "A Guide to Federal Resources Following Hurricane Ian."

The other is from US Representative Val Demings (D): "Will you chip in $10 or more right now to help me defeat Marco Rubio and defend our Democratic Senate majority and help Adam [Schiff] defend our majority in the House?"

Right now, in Florida, one of those emails is a smart political move and one, well, isn't.

Wordle 468 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle session started off just like yesterday's, but by the end I felt only contempt for it.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 467 Hint

Hint: If you find yourself in hot water trying to solve today's puzzle, try this:

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

New to Wordle? Here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: S

Wordle 466 Hint

Hint: If you don't solve today's Wordle, you may feel the solution was unjustly taken from you.

Note: I live in the possible path of Hurricane Ian, so it's possible that this daily hint column will disappear for a few days.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

New to Wordle? Here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: U

The First Step is Admitting You Have a Problem

We all saw a lot of crazy stuff during the pandemic. We're still seeing some of that crazy stuff. But what bothers me is the seeming complete non-awareness of people who did (or are even still doing) the crazy stuff that what they did (or are even still doing) is crazy. An example, from The Atlantic:

When I think about the early pandemic now, it takes effort not to conjure the memories that everyone I know shares -- stockpiling beans, improvising face coverings, wiping down the light switches with bleach -- and to remember, instead, how much time I spent in those months trying to soothe my dog while she barked at maskless strangers in my building.

Here's the thing about dogs: They take their emotional cues from their humans. If your dog is upset by "maskless strangers in your building," it's almost certainly because you are upset by "maskless strangers in your building."

In late 2022, it's reasonable to look back at "wiping down the light switches with bleach" and being upset by "maskless strangers in your building" in early 2020 as regrettable but understandable collapses into temporary insanity.

In late 2022, it's not reasonable to continue to think that "wiping down the light switches with bleach" and being upset by "maskless strangers in your building" in early 2020 were sane reactions to COVID-19.

If that's what you're thinking (and the author's writing seems to imply that that's what she's thinking), the insanity wasn't temporary. You've got a chronic mental health issue and you should get help.

Week 4 NFL Picks

Well, Week 3 was a disaster -- I racked up a total of NEGATIVE 123.7 points,  picking only seven of 16 games correctly and ending up with an aggregate score of -121.2 points for the season (26th percentile) in FiveThirtyEight's NFL Forecasting Game. The FiveThirtyEight Model only got eight picks right but only lost 63.4 points because it doesn't bet as big as I do on the Chiefs.

On the up side, I did pick a couple of upsets correctly: The Dolphins beat the Bills, and after looking at the injury list I changed my pick to correctly predict the Jaguars' defeat of the Chargers.

My Week 4 picks:

Miami Dolphins beat Cincinnati Bengals -- 61%
Minnesota Vikings beat New Orleans Saints -- 61%
Buffalo Bills beat Baltimore Ravens -- 61%
Chicago Bears beat New York Giants -- 53%*
Cleveland Browns beat Atlanta Falcons-- 61%
Philadelphia Eagles beat Jacksonville Jaguars -- 79%
Los Angeles Chargers beat Houston Texans -- 71%
Pittsburgh Steelers beat New York Jets -- 79%
Detroit Lions beat Seattle Seahawks -- 53%
Indianapolis Colts beat Tennessee Titans -- 61%
Dallas Cowboys beat Washington Commanders -- 61%
North Carolina Panthers beat Arizona Cardinals -- 53%
Denver Broncos beat Las Vegas Raiders -- 59%
Green Bay Packers beat New England Patriots -- 61%
Kansas City Chiefs beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- 100%*
Los Angeles Rams beat San Francisco 49ers -- 59%*

Asterisks indicate where my picks differ from the FiveThirtyEight models.

I usually don't make many changes. Any changes I make will be noted in updates below this post and will be made before the game times involved. Now that I'm starting to get into this, I'll probably spend a little time most weeks (although likely not this week, as I have hurricane prep to work on) looking at things like updated injury lists and prior team-on-team results.

Wordle 465 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle is kind of like the ground after a significant storm (speaking of which, if this daily hint column disappears for a few days starting later this week, it's because my home lies in the projected path of Hurricane Ian and extended power outages are likely).

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

New to Wordle? Here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: S

Wordle 464 Hint

Hint: The breeze was a little chilly outside this morning, but that just energized me to come inside and solve the day's Wordle.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: B

The Up Side to a Hurricane ...

... is that unless you live in a remote cabin in a swamp with no radio, television, Internet or human contact, you're generally going to have several days' notice that one is coming (or might be coming) your way.

I've been through numerous tornadoes and a few earthquakes (none of the latter especially major).

If you live in or near a town in a tornado-prone area, you might get a warning siren or whatever a few minutes before it's on top of you.

I understand the guys in lab coats are getting better at predicting earthquakes, but the first notice I've ever had of being in the middle of one was when things started shaking. That was California in the 1980s (and once, in the early 2000s, a quake I barely felt but instantly recognized in Missouri).

Here in Florida, you can pretty much count on 5-7 days of time to do things like:

1. Think about whether to stay or leave (we thought about leaving for one storm, and fortunately decided not to, since it ended up going right to our likely destination, Tupelo);
2. If you're leaving, make travel arrangements;
3. If you're staying, start putting away stuff that can get blown around, start laying in bottled water, pick up any additional food that you think might come in handy, check/buybatteries for lanterns, charge up your power banks for phones, etc.

Here in Gainesville, we're working on (3) at the moment, and it seems pretty well in hand. Hurricane Ian's storm cone keeps shifting. A couple of days ago, we were right in the middle of it. Yesterday, it looked like we'd be northwest of the center. Today, it looks like the center will pass west of us. Hell, it may decide to vacation in Acapulco for all I know. But we're getting ready, and will decide whether to ride it out at the house or seek more sturdy shelter on, probably, Wednesday morning.

Wordle 463 Hint

Hint: Come on in and listen to me confess that for some reason today's Wordle took me all six tries to solve.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: A

Wordle 462 Hint

Hint: If you like to mince words, you shouldn't have a shred of trouble with today's Wordle.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: G

If This Blog Was A Person ...

... it would be old enough to vote as of today.

I don't know why I find it humorous that the very first post is just an excerpt/link to a review at a site that no longer exists (except in the WayBack Machine).

KN@PPSTER is far from the oldest or longest-living blog on the Web, of course. I came late to the blogging idea. On the other hand, many have come and gone while this one just keeps ticking along. This is its 5,247th post, and the 385th so far this year.

And yes, I intend to increase my average posting goal from one post per day (365 posts per year) to 1.5x posts per day (550 posts per year) for 2023. The daily Wordle hint already gets me to the old goal, assuming I continue to do it. I'm not ready to double the old goal yet, although I might do that for 2024.

Wordle 461 Hint

Hint: Good morning! What's the story on today's Wordle?

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First Letter: G

Thankfully, Some Guitar Problems Come With Their Own Solutions

One of the first things I did upon receiving my Glarry GTL Semi-Hollow Electric Guitar (not an affiliate link) was order new strings for it. The included strings weren't bad, mind you, but I like good strings. The classic Telecaster (this is a Tele clone) strings are Fender Super 250s, which were on sale at Amazon for $3.99 (not an affiliate link).

They arrived over the weekend, but I only got around to re-stringing the guitar yesterday, and ... well ... see if you can spot what's wrong with this picture:

See that little blue ring at the lower left? That's the end of the high E string. The other five strings come in through holes in the rear ... but that saddle was screwed on to the instrument slightly mis-aligned with the holes. I spent about 15 minutes trying to get the string in from the rear before I gave up.

Fortunately, the saddle is built so that you can string the guitar using the rear holes or holes at the back of the saddle. I'd generally do them all the same way, but the high E was the last string I got to and I didn't feel like removing and redoing all the others.

I didn't expect to get a guitar with that particular defect, but I knew it was possible, because I watched several video reviews of this particular instrument before ordering it, and one of the reviewers got a GTL with exactly the same problem. As it happened, that was the only thing that seemed to bother him about it.

For less than $100, I can't reasonably expect perfection from a guitar, and I'm still happy with this one. I'm just glad that there's a built-in way of getting around the problem without removing the saddle, realigning it, and maybe even having to drill a new hole in the body if it can't be aligned as is.

Even if it's True, is it Really Helpful in This Instance?

Donald Trump to Sean Hannity: "If you’re the president of the United States, you can declassify just by saying, 'It’s declassified.' Even by thinking about it."

Do you see the problem here? The evidence for Donald Trump thinking about anything more substantial than his image/brand is pretty weak.

Week 3 NFL Picks ...

... for FiveThirtyEight's NFL Forecasting Game.

I predict:

Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Cleveland Browns -- 53%*
Baltimore Ravens to beat the New England Patriots -- 53%
Miami Dolphins to beat the Buffalo Bills -- 53%*
Cincinnati Bengals to beat the New York Jets -- 59%
Minnesota Vikings to beat the Detroit Lions -- 79%
Chicago Bears to beat the Houston Texans -- 71%
Kansas City Chiefs to beat the Indianapolis Colts -- 100%
New Orleans Saints to beat the Carolina Panthers -- 71%
Las Vegas Raiders to beat the Tennessee Titans -- 53%*
Philadelphia Eagles to beat the Washington Commanders -- 67%
Los Angeles Chargers to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars -- 79%
Jacksonville Jaguars to beat the Los Angeles Chargers -- 53%*
Seattle Seahawks to beat the Atlanta Falcons -- 73%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Green Bay Packers -- 71%
Arizona Cardinals to beat the Los Angeles Rams -- 53%*
San Francisco 49ers to beat the Denver Broncos -- 53%*
New York Giants to beat the Dallas Cowboys -- 71%

Asterisks indicate where I disagree with the FiveThirtyEight model's picks. But for ALL picks, the percentage probability I've assigned differs from FiveThirtyEight's. I always go all in on the Chiefs, I usually go bigger than FiveThirtyEight even when I agree with their prediction, and I have a thing about prime numbers.

I had a bad week last week. I only correctly predicted eight of 16 games, and most of my bad picks were for big points. For the season so far, my score is 2.5 points, while the FiveThirtyEight model is as 38.2 points. I'm barely in the top 1/3 of players by percentile and rank 2,083rd of 6,228 players. Let's see if I can make up some ground!

UPDATE, 09/25/22: I've changed one of my picks. I had the Chargers to beat the Jaguars, 79% confidence. Now I've reversed that, 53% on the Jaguars to beat the Chargers. Why? The Chargers have an injury problem. Quarterback Justin Herbert may or may not be in the game due to a rib injury received playing Kansas City Thursday before last, and if he is back he probably won't be at 100%. They've got six players marked "doubtful" or "questionable" for today's game including their quarterback and their center, Corey Linsley. The Jaguars have one (cornerback Shaquill Grifin). The Jaguars had a good game last week, shutting down the Colts 24-0, so they're probably stoked for this game; the Chargers lost last week and half of them seem to be in the hospital. I don't change my picks lightly once I make them, but this one just kept looking more and more doubtful until I couldn't stick with it.

Wordle 460 Hint

Hint: March right into today's puzzle, New Orleans style.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

New to Wordle? Here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: S

Florida Election 2022: My "Endorsement" for Governor

I consider voting neither a "civic duty" nor an initiation of force. It's just making a mark on a piece of paper to indicate a preference from among several choices in a bad system. The system is there whether I approve of it or not, and a governor will be chosen whether I fill in that little circle or not.

I could justify not voting on "who cares?" grounds or on "it won't make any difference" grounds.

I could also justify voting on Rothbardian "defensive" grounds (choose the least bad slave overseer since you're going to be getting one of those whether you like it or not) and on "send a message" grounds. In a particularly close election, I could justify it on "maybe it will make the difference" grounds.

It's pretty much a toss-up.

So, let's have a look at the race for Florida governor. Should I vote? If so, who should I vote for (or against)?

As I've pointed out elsewhere, the two "major party" candidates on my ballot -- Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Charlie Crist -- are "both swamp creatures, political careerists, tax parasites who’ve spent their entire adult lives either on, or trying to get on, government payrolls." There's absolutely nothing whatsoever that would justify a vote for either one of them.

That said, if the polls had the election within a single percentage point, I might consider choosing Crist as my vote against DeSantis. Not because I think Crist would be a better governor, but because losing this election would effectively take DeSantis out of the running for president in 2024 or 2028. If he can't get re-elected in his own state, he's just not national material. And I do not want a President Ron DeSantis.

What do the polls say? FiveThirtyEight's average has DeSantis up by 6.2%.

That could change (or the polling could be off due to sampling issues) as Latino voters whose parents fled Cuba or Venezuela take note of his idiotic "fly Venezuelan immigrants from Texas to Massachusetts to OWN THE LIBS" stunt.

But for the moment, the chances of my vote affecting the outcome between them are as low as is usual in large elections, which is to say effectively zero. I don't have to vote "for" Crist on the off possibility that doing so will let me OWN DESANTIS.

Who else do we have?

Carmen Jackie Gimenez lists a bunch of credentials and embeds Instagram and Twitter feeds on her campaign's "about" page, but there's no issues page. She seems like she may be reasonably good on immigration freedom and immigrant rights. And she's apparently endorsed by Jesus, which I'd expect to be bigger news than it is. But I'm just not getting the vibe that she offers much in terms of "defensive," "send a message," or "make a difference" grounds.

Other than write-in candidates, that leaves Libertarian candidate Hector Roos.

On one hand, he seems a little too closely affiliated with the Republican PAC that recently took over both the Libertarian Party of Florida and the Libertarian National Committee for my taste. And his background looks a little shady.

On the other hand, his campaign web site, minimal as it is, says the right things. And I suspect that the Mises PAC hasn't yet succeeded in its goal of reframing the Libertarian Party's message into "we're even more stupid and evil than the Trumpists, you should vote Republican" such that a vote for Roos would "send that message."

So, if I vote at all, and if the election doesn't turn into a 1% cliffhanger by the time I do, I'll be voting for Roos.

"The Most Important US Election Ever ..."

... was the fourth US presidential election, held in 1800.

Of course, we tend to hear from one "major" party or the other that every election is the "most important one EVAH."

But yeah, it was 1800's.

Why?

Well, George Washington was elected in the first two, and if he'd chosen to continue running, he'd have continued winning until he died. It's nice that he cut himself off at two terms as an example of "no presidents for life."

The third was the first actually competitive presidential election, but it was an "open seat" rather than someone trying to hold on to power. Neither John Adams nor Thomas Jefferson was the sitting president.

The fourth was John Adams trying to keep the office he was already in, with Jefferson trying to unseat him. If Adams had won, especially after dirty tricks like the Alien and Sedition Acts, we might well have continued from there with a de facto monarchy in the form of "presidents for life."

Because he lost, it wasn't until the late 19th century that elections began to turn into quadrennial coronations of monarchs from sets of candidates limited to two "major parties," and it wasn't until 1932-44 that we got an individual "president for life" (corrected for shortly thereafter with the 22nd Amendment to limit the monarch to two terms).

Wordle 459 Hint

Hint: I'll try to summarize today's Wordle for you, but first let me put my hat back on.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: R

Wordle 458 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle is composed of five different letters (no repeats) ... but together they're all the same.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: A

Wordle 457 Tip

Hint: Feels like it only took an instant to get today's answer hauled in and tied down.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: T

Wordle 456 Hint

Hint: You don't have to yell at your computer screen. You can speak softly and carry the day's Wordle.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: S

Wordle 455 Hint

Hint: Always feel up in the air when starting the day's Wordle? Today's answer will bring you down ... slowly.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: C

Wordle 454 Hint

Hint: Biting your nails over today's Wordle? There's someone who can help you cut back on that kind of thing.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: P

Wordle 453 Hint

Hint: Certainty has no place in today's Wordle.

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First Letter: D

Wordle 452 Hint

Hint: Hey, wanna meet up at Scarborough Fair? I'll be there in, say, an hour or so.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: T

Well, That Would at Least Clarify Certain Things

If Rod Dreher is correct and "Ron DeSantis is [American] Conservatism's Future," then  at least we have an end to the pretense of ideology on that end of the political spectrum.

DeSantis's version of "conservatism" is "authoritarian infliction of whatever damnfool ideas strike us as most pleasing to our political base at any given moment, for the purpose of keeping the power and paychecks flowing to lifelong political careerists like me."

If you're thinking to yourself that that sounds a lot like American politics as usual, you're right.

But normally we think of that approach as partisan (Republican/Democrat) rather than ideological (conservative/liberal).

The ideologies get used as excuses for the partisanship: They're the supposed "better angels of the parties' nature," which we're expected to believe sit on the politicians' shoulders and whisper in their ears, whether the politicians really listen or not.

DeSantis has made it clear beyond dispute that the only angel he listens to is the angel who keeps track of polling numbers.

Do most of the voters he's trying to bag think COVID-19 is scary and draconian measures are required? Fine, he'll issue a statewide lockdown order and stick State Troopers at the state lines and airports to force travelers into quarantine.

Uh-oh, have his voters changed their minds, and are they upset that businesses and employees have freedom of association? Fine, he'll not only lift the lockdowns but try to make those mean old businesses and employees do whatever he thinks his voters want.

Does he think he can scare the bejeezus out of his voters with Drag Queen Story Hour or trans kids playing sports? Under the bus, LGBTQIA types -- you probably vote Democrat anyway.

What Dreher is suggesting here is that the "future of conservatism" involves discarding any pretense to morals, values, or principles at all and just openly and unapologetically going full Tammany Hall.

Which I guess is kind of refreshingly honest.

This Week's NFL Picks ...

... since I might as well share them in advance when I remember:

The Chiefs beat the Chargers, 100%

The Giants beat the Panthers, 71%

The Colts beat the Jaguars, 79%

The Dolphins beat the Ravens, 53%*

The Steelers beat the Patriots, 61%

The Browns beat the Jets, 71%

The Buccaneers beat the Saints, 61%

Washington beats the Lions, 67%

The Rams beat the Falcons, 91%

The Seahawks beat the 49ers, 53%*

The Raiders beat the Cardinals, 71%

The Bengals beat the Cowboys, 79%

The Broncos beat the Texans, 61%

The Packers beat the Bears, 79%

The Bills beat the Titans, 79%

The Vikings beat the Eagles, 53%*

While my percentages differ from the FiveThirtyEight model's on every pick, my picks only differ on the three asterisked games. 

Two Libertarian Party Questions and My Answers

Q: Should state Libertarian Parties act in accordance with their own rules/bylaws?

A: Absolutely.

Q: Do the Libertarian National Committee and the LNC-bylaws-empowered Judicial Committee enjoy jurisdiction to issue binding rulings on whether state Libertarian Parties (including those affiliated, or not affiliated, with the LNC) are acting in accordance with their own rules/bylaws, and/or to compel such action?

A: Absolutely not.

The LNC is not the parent organization of the state Libertarian Parties.

The LNC is a mutual affiliation mechanism created by and for the benefit of those state Libertarian Parties.

And just to be clear for the nth time, the problem of the LNC getting too big for its britches and trying to order the affiliated state parties around is not a new problem, nor is it unique to the Mises-PAC-dominated iteration of the LNC. It's been going on for at least two decades and change now. It's just been getting much worse over the last year or so, starting before the Mises PAC took control.

Wordle 451 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle feels like it should have been the very first. Or like they're switching from English to some ancient language.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

New to Wordle? Here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: A

That Podcast I Told You About is Here ...

It's called "Jake Porter and Friends," and you can listen to about 45 minutes of Jake and I re-hashing the last 20 years of Libertarian Party history in its first episode here.

Me vs. the 538 Model: NFL Forecasting, Week 1

Well, it's that time of year again ... FiveThirtyEight's NFL Forecasting Game ... and I almost forgot!

In fact I did forget until Sunday morning, which means I didn't have a pick in for the Bills/Rams game, and thus neither gained nor lost any points. I suppose I could say that the Bills would have been my (winning pick), but that would be kind of self-serving, wouldn't it?

I picked nine of 15 games correctly. Of those I didn't pick correctly, one I didn't pick at all and the other (Colts v. Texans) was a tie. So those two cost me no points.

The games I blew: I incorrectly picked the 49ers to beat the Bears, the Bengals to beat the Steelers, the Panthers to beat the Browns, and the Titans to beat the Giants. As it happens, every game I picked incorrectly, the 538 model failed on as well, but the model also blew the Buccaneers vs. the Cowboys and the Vikings vs. the Packers.

The final game of Week One is tonight, when the Broncos play the Seahawks. I've picked the Broncos and given them a 67% chance to win. I'll try to remember to update this post after the game.

My score so far: 56.8 points. The 538 model's score: -0.9 points. I am currently ranked in the 98th percentile, in 83rd place among 5,120 participants.

Update, Post-Monday-Night-Football: I gave the Denver Broncos a 67% chance of beating the Seattle Seahawks. FiveThirtyEight made the same pick, with only a 57% chance. The Seahawks won, knocking my score-for-season down by 19.9 points to 36.9, and the FiveThirtyEight model's score down to -8.4. I'm still in the 98th percentile on the leaderboard, but now rank 121st of 5,317 participants.

Wordle 450 Hint

Hint: Today's Wordle nearly drove me to drink. Its ending is the opposite of easy.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

New to Wordle? Here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: B

Wordle 449 Hint

Hint: Most people own two of this ancient Roman musical instrument and carry both of them around 24/7.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

New to Wordle? Here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: T

Wordle 448 Hint

Hint: You might feel this way if you lived in an attic.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

New to Wordle? Here are some thoughts on how I go about solving each day's puzzle.

First Letter: L

KN@PPSTER: Thanks For Asking! Podcast, episode 3

OK, everything seemed to go well for except for a couple of things: I didn't see any listeners listed while I was recording, then as I was hitting "end room" I saw the top of what looked like a listener list with its top cut off at the very bottom of the window. My bad -- I'll try adjusting the display or paging down next time. Also, listening back thru, I hear some audio crackling. I don't know if that was my headset, my connection, or wind, etc. but I'll try to get that figure out. Anyway, here is the direct link (I do wish they had an embed function). :

https://callin.com/link/lxDQlrUsEW

If you prefer to listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, it seems like the lag time for that is usually 24 hours or so.

Thanks For Asking! Podcast Today at Noon Eastern

I'm sticking with Callin for at least one more try to get past my own competence issues and their growing pains. If everything goes right, the show will kick off at noon Eastern time today, here:

https://callin.com/link/kgKEgAcvMZ

Here are the questions I've got teed up from this month's Thanks For Asking! thread:

THIS SPACE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK

But there's still time to get your question in, preferably by 11:30am or so.

If nobody bites, I'll take questions live and/or just answer whatever unasked questions I feel like answering.

If Callin 1) works well and 2) gets participation, I'll stick with it.

I find it preferable to Twitter Spaces, even though Twitter obviously has a larger user base, because for the moment Twitter makes it a pain in the ass to download/edit/convert/publish Spaces audio to other formats/platforms.

If I continue to have problems with Callin, I'm considering Zoom, which I suspect most people have used at this point.

"See" you at noon!

While I Can't Claim Any Special Mastery of the Legalities Here ...

... I'm not sure I agree with the opinion pieces I'm seeing decrying a judge's ruling in favor of a "special master" to assess the documents seized in the FBI's raid on disgraced former president Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence.

Most such pieces seem to rely on an opinion that the ruling puts Trump "above the law," but so far as I can tell, no, it doesn't inherently do that. If the special master's purview was limited to looking for documents that would compromise attorney-client privilege, it would be, in my view, perfectly legitimate (an express disclaimer in addition to the implicit one in the title -- I am not an attorney or legal expert).

Here's the thing: The investigators are inherently allied with the prospective prosecution. In terms of incentives, letting them use their own "taint team" to decide what's privileged and what isn't would be the equivalent of letting police departments investigate themselves when one of their cops shoots someone. They're going to be inclined to favor their guys, not the other guys.

So a truly independent "special master" with no investment in the outcome of the case makes sense. He or she can look for documents that reflect confidential attorney-client communications that the prosecution just shouldn't see, or even know about.

A second major objection I'm seeing is that the ruling includes having the special master look for documents that might enjoy "executive privilege."

That objection is entirely correct. The US Department of Justice is part of the executive branch, and since it answers to the executive, there's no reason for a wall between it and information which that executive might direct it to not introduce as evidence, etc. That's an internal executive branch matter. Donald Trump is not the executive, and as such enjoys no "executive privilege."

The third objection that seems to be in the air is that appointing a "special master" would slow down the investigation.

Well, tough. If this matter is about "justice" rather than, say, the midterm elections, then the wheels of "justice" grinding slowly is a feature, not a bug. Getting it right, not getting it fast, should be the goal.

So while I think the ruling should be overturned with respect to the "executive privilege" garbage (and that any documents covered under the Presidential Records Act should be returned to the National Archives, not to Trump, if the special master deems them fruit of the poisoned tree for some reason), A special master makes sense for the attorney-client privilege matter.

Wordle 447 Hint

Hint: "Constantly losing the plot" could be one of these.

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First Letter: T

Wordle 446 Hint

Hint: Plebeians and patricians, even when they're not at school.

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First Letter: C

Wordle 445 Hint

Hint: Approach today's Wordle with caution. It seems kind of suspicious.

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First Letter: L

Wordle 444 Hint

Hint: I feel like today's Wordle is intended to provoke angry reactions.

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First Letter: T

Wordle 443 Hint

Hint: What's that noise? Are you just really excited, or did you perhaps not get vaccinated for pertussis?

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: W

The ONLY Reuben Recipe You'll EVER Need

Ingredients:

• 3 slices rye bread of preference
• 1/4 pound corned beef, shaved or sliced thin
• 3 ounces sauerkraut
• 1 slice Swiss cheese
• Thousand Island dressing to taste
• 1 tablespoon butter or margarine

Preparation:

• Put a cast-iron skillet on your heating surface and begin warming it up to medium heat.
• Lay the three slices of bread side by side on your cutting board or other prep surface.
• On the rightmost slice, place the slice of cheese, then top it with the corned beef.
• Spread the middle slice with Thousand Island dressing.
• Ladle the sauerkraut onto the leftmost slice of bread.
• Add 1/2 tablespoon of butter to your skillet.
• Using a spatula, carefully pick up the leftmost slice of bread w/sauerkraut, walk it over to the garbage can, and throw it in.
• Rinse off the spatula just in case any of that nasty sauerkraut juice got on it, so as not to ruin the sandwich. 
• Flip the middle (now left-most) slice of bread with Thousand Island on it over onto the slice with the corned beef and cheese.
• Using your spatula, place the sandwich in the heated skillet and grill one side for about 2 minutes.
• Lift the sandwich, add another 1/2 tablespoon of butter to the skillet, flip the sandwich, and grill for another 2 minutes or so. Both sides of the sandwich should be golden brown, and the cheese should be melted.
• Set aside to cool briefly while you take the garbage out so you don't have to suffer the smell of sauerkraut in your nostrils while trying to eat.
• Enjoy!

You're welcome.

Wordle 442 Hint

Hint: I really had to dig for the answer to today's Wordle. It was a grave state of affairs.

Not Enough? Get the first letter of today's Wordle after the graphic below.

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First Letter: I

I Have a Weakness for Orphans

Last night I dreamed that I was at a yard sale and found a Martin D-28 for $100.

This morning I went to yard sales. I did not find a Martin D-28 for $100. Yes, I know, shocking.

But then for some reason we wandered into a Goodwill and there it was, sitting all by itself in a box of junk:

It's a Silvertone Model 319. That was a mid- to late-'60s guitar. Some quick web reading seems to indicate that from 1968 on they were manufactured in Japan, and this one is labeled "Made in USA" on the back of the headstock, so presumably pre-1968.

Is it worth the $9.99 I paid for it?

As a musical instrument, I doubt it. The action is almost nothing at the first fret and probably 1/4" at the 12th fret. By ear (I haven't put a tuner on it to check for sure), it does seem to intone correctly (12th fret one octave above an unfretted note). But that action ... although some Model 319s apparently had a truss rod, this one doesn't, so adjusting the action would involve things like raising the nut/lowering the bridge. It would also need new tuning keys and of course new strings. And I wouldn't venture to predict the results.

On the other hand, it's a 50-plus-year-old guitar that someone once loved  (there's even a sticker label with the former owner's name on it on the body below the neck/body joint)  It's beautiful in its own "good old days" way. So maybe I'll hang it on the wall next to my late great-uncle's equally non-functional mandolin. I just couldn't leave it there all by its lonesome.

Wordle 441 Hint

Hint: Some days it's tempting to just ditch Wordle and steal a day away from the trench warfare of puzzle solving. If you do that today, you're all wet.

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First Letter: G

I'm on an Upcoming Podcast ...

... and I think you'll want to listen to it, because it covers a lot of cool stuff.

I can't remember the name of the podcast, but the creator/host is Jake Porter, and this will be the premier episode.

It's a rambling discussion, of an hour or more and covers a lot of cool stuff, including a story I've never been able to publicly tell before (I've shared it confidentially with a few friends) about the time that I was briefly (for an hour or so) the Libertarian Party's presidential nominee. Or at least the avatar thereof.

Jake's been a Libertarian since 2004, when he he must have been too young to vote (I know that factoid due to a later occurrence which is also covered in the podcast). He's done pretty much everything Libertarian Partyish, up to and including managing Jacob Hornberger's 2020 presidential campaign, running for governor and secretary of state of Iowa, serving as a libertarian in one or more appointed gummint positions, etc. Right now he's managing Ricky Dale Harrington's campaign for governor in Arkansas.

I think we talked about every Libertarian presidential cycle from 2004 on, as well as the current situation in the Libertarian Party, etc.

So anyway, hopefully that whets your appetite. When it goes public, I'll point you to it.

Wordle 440 Hint

Hint: Today's puzzle will delight you so much you may decide to show it off by wearing it on your wrist.

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First Letter: C

Well, Who Would Turn Down THAT Deal?

At first, I assumed the ad contained a typo which would eventually be corrected, but I've been seeing it for weeks or months now:

Let's assume -- I'm not even going to bother to check -- that a "custom tailored billionaire suit" normally costs $1,000.

100% off that would make the cost of suit $0.

In the real world, with, you know, math, 800% off means they would pay me $7,000 to accept the suit.

I'm guessing that this ad is not a real-world offer. But if it is, I guess I'm getting a new suit. And a pile of money.

Wordle 439 Hint

Hint: They're among us, including on our dinner plates and in some cases between our toes.

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First Letter: F

Thanks For Asking! -- 09/01/22

OK, so I blew the plan of having this thread up on Monday for a podcast today ... so it's the thread today, podcast next Friday. Unless I mess up again. Anyway:

Ask me anything in comments.

I'll reply in comments, on the podcast, or whatever.

I am doing a podcast on Friday, but it's someone else's podcast and I don't know when it will be publicly available and I'm not telling you who until I have that info, so cope.