KN@PPSTER LiveBlogs the Second 2016 GOP Presidential Debate -- Kids' Table Edition

7:41 -- Final question: What is the one thing you offer that the top tier does?

7:47 -- Quick reaction: Pataki probably won the "serious guy" contest. Santorum probably won the "how does the GOP appeal to proles" contest. Graham actually was kind of authentic but didn't win much -- just too crazy on foreign policy and Santorum stole his "poor guy up by my bootstraps" thunder. Jindal should probably get about shutting his campaign down. He MAY have done OK with evangelical Christians, but I wouldn't count on that even. Back in another post in a few minutes for The Big Shew.


Pataki: TWO things. We have to win the election. None of it matters unless we win. And then we have to govern successfully. You need a leader who actually gets a conservative agenda through. I did that in New York, one of the most liberal states in American.

Santorum: Came to Washington in unlikely way, defeated Dem incumbent. Only thought I'd be there one term, shook things up, ended 40 years of Democratic control. I led that fight.  Outsider, got conservative things done. Now after ten years of seeing GOP retreat, they need me, outsider, to go back and get things done.

Jindal: I'm a doer not a talker. Idea of America is slipping away. If you want incremental change, vote for someone else. Planned Parenthood is selling baby parts and Washington GOP can't find its testicles to fight. Time to take on DC permanent government class. I'm the only guy who has actually shrunk government.

Graham: I will win a war we can't afford to lose, even though everything I've ever suggested on foreign policy before has turned out to be completely wrong and I'm still suggesting the same idiotic policies. Trump is a cartoon character. Kasich wants to close more basis. I want to spend all your money on the military. I'll make your family safe even though it does not seem like it.

7:25 -- Graham, you all oppose nuke deal with Iran. Yahoo John Bolton wants strike Iran. You? Graham: If I believed they were trying to get a bomb, I would. And they know it. We need to stop increasing military spending so little and just put everything into getting as many Americans either dead or in the poorhouse as possible. Kasich wants to sensibly close more basis. The worst nightmare in the world is some Lockheed-Martin executive not being able to buy a private island and a gold-plated bathtub. Spend, spend, spend, and kill as many as we have to to keep the spending up.

Pataki, there are other ways than bombing. Santorum wants to assassinate scientists. What do you think? Pataki: We need a strong America, we need to reject the deal and reimpose sanctions. We should give Israel big bombs to do our dirty work for us. And Clinton was Senator from New York on 9/11 and has been a complete fuckup ever since. We have got to beat her.

Santorum, any means necessary? Still on the table? Santorum: 12 years ago I authored a sanctions bill on Iran and fell four votes short. I've been laser-focused on getting us into war with what I believe to be a massive death cult because getting us into wars with massive death cults isn't batshit insane or anything. On day one, I tell Iran that if they don't consent to be my bitch, I'm going to have my way with you.

Graham, Putin is sending more stuff to Syria to support Assad. Trump says he can get along with Putin. Why would your confrontation work better than Trump's deal-making. Graham: It's all Barack Obama's fault for not getting enough Americans killed. I've told you, I'm willing to kill as many Americans as you'll let me kill, because I'm completely nuts and more bloodthirsty than Manson.

Jindal, how would you get Russians out of Syria? Jindal: I'd rather talk about Iran, which means I'd rather blame Obama for everything. I want to ask Graham, are Senate Republicans willing to get rid of filibuster to kill the Iran deal and get us into the war all of us crazy people want? What's the point of a majority if we're not getting Americans killed?

Graham: Bobby, you were in Congress. If you want to repeal ObamaCare, get a new president. If you want to end Planned Parenthood's corporate welfare, get a new president. We need 67 votes to override Obama's veto, but we need to elect a Republican president, not play shutdown games. I want to lead the party to winning.

Jindal: You just heard a Republican say we can't do anything. Democrats forced ObamaCare without 60 votes, don't Republicans have any fight? If not, it's time to be done with the GOP. No point in being cheaper Democrats. Maybe start a new party. At least Reid and Pelosi fight for what they believe in.

Graham: We're running for POTUS. With that comes certain amount of honesty. Tired of telling people what they want to hear. I would not give Planned Parenthood money as president, but I'm not going to shut down the government now.

Break.

7:17 -- Graham, minimum wage. Santorum wants to increase it. You? Graham: If you increase minimum wage, hard to hire more people. Clinton has a list to help the middle class, they've been squeezed hard. I understand the middle class, and I want to grow the economy, not just screw with the minimum wage. No more money for federal government until there's a plan to get out of debt.

Santorum, defend yourself. Santorum: Less than 1% make minimum wage, if you're not for increasing it you're not for a floor wage in America you suck. GOP supported bailouts, I didn't. GOP supported special tax treatment for business, I didn't. Republicans need to support working people by increasing unemployment. 90% of Americans are wage-earners, not business owners and we need to talk to workers.

Break.

7:12 -- Graham: Republicans need to tell Americans that we get who you are, I want to save Social Security.

Pataki, Jeb and Trump want to raise taxes on hedge fund managers. Do you agree? Pataki: I would throw out the whole corrupt tax code. Get rid of exemptions and loopholes, lower rates. I would propose a law that no congress person can ever be a lobbyist afterward.

Jindal, three Republicans running who support higher rate for hedge fund managers. You? Jindal: Lower, flatter, tax rate. I've done that as governor.

Santorum, do you agree with Jeb that limits home mortgage deduction. Santorum: I propose a 20% flat tax on everyone and everything (income, interest, corporate income). I want to make America number one manufacturer in the world, and fantasize that we can compete on wages in manufacturing even though the last 30 years says our future is elsewhere. But I'm Rick Santorum and I can wave my magic wand and make the impossible happen.

Pataki, you said you'd be OK with raising taxes on hedge fund managers, would you also get rid of deductions? Pataki: No, I'd keep deductions. And I also have a magical mystery plan to bring manufacturing back.

Election 2012: GOP handicapping developments

No sooner had I started writing down Jeb Bush's prospects than those prospects began to start looking up.

With the early resignation of US Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL), Bush's name went under the spotlight as a possible interim replacement. He's now officially disclaimed interest, but it's good "pre-trail" publicity, as it points up the fact that he's previously won two statewide elections and is still well thought of in that key state.

Bush's name also appeared on a survey sent out by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, asking respondents about their 2012 presidential preferences. Other names listed on the "proxy ballot" included Mississippi governor Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels (governor of Indiana), Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman (US ambassador to China and former governor of Utah), Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John McCain, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Pawlenty and Mitt Romney.

I'm bumping Jeb up from 5% to 10% on the old KN@PPSTER-o-Meter, and taking that 5% out of Huckabee's (3%) and Gingrich's (2%) hides.

I'm also replacing Fred Thompson's name and mug shot with a question mark, and keeping Thompson's former 5% on it. Henceforth, until things shake out quite a bit more, that question mark will represent the entire "also possibly running" pack, to include Thompson, Barbour, Ron Paul (or a Paul movement "heir"), and oddball possibles like former US Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), who's setting up for an Iowa stump tour this fall.

Hell, the eventual nominee may resolve out of that question mark. But at this early date, I still think we're looking at a likely Huckabee/Gingrich shootout with Huckabee prevailing.

Election 2012: Adjust!

Based in part on some Rasmussen numbers (hat tip -- David Weigel), some significant adjustments to the odds:

- I've taken Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty down from 5% to 1%. As any number of analysists have pointed out -- I think it was Dick Morris talking about Hillary Clinton who first caught my eye with it -- "unfavorables" are at least as important as "favorables" in evaluating a candidate, and a candidate with unfavorables in the 35% or higher range might as well pack it in. Pawlenty's unfavorables are at 34%, his favorables are only at 38% ... and this is before he's really moved into the fight, and a year after the GOP's national convention was held in his state, giving him a chance to showcase himself. I don't see him going anywhere but down from those numbers, and I expect to take him completely off the board soon.

- Newt Gingrich, on the other hand, gets a 5% boost, up to 25%. I was surprised to see his favorable ratings at 65 ... I'd anticipated more in the 50 range. I also expected his unfavorables to be right up against that 35 "doomed, doomed" number, but he came in six points under at 29. He's aggressively promoting himself, and it's working.

- I was surprised to not see Bobby Jindal or Fred Thompson in the Rasmussen field. As much buzz as Jindal's had, I think it was a mistake to exclude him and I haven't adjusted his number. Apparently I over-estimated Thompson's continuing cachet; I've taken him down to 15%, but still think he may throw in and do well.

- I'm now thinking that I got a little prematurely and impulsively bullish on Jeb Bush. Rasmussen didn't bother to include him, and the other McCain usually serves as a pretty good mood barometer for the GOP's Feral Confederate Chihuahua faction. Downgraded from 15% to 10%.

- As has been pointed out, I was probably unfair to Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney by starting them at zero. I still don't think either of them will be viable candidates for the GOP's nomination come 2012, but the numbers say I'm wrong, at least for now. I've redistributed the left-over percentages to them, 5% and 4% respectively, by way of acknowledging that they seem, at least for the moment, to have a shot.

- The Rasmussen numbers confirm my contention that Mike Huckabee is the guy to beat. He has the highest favorable ratings (78%) and the lowest unfavorable ratings (17%) in the field. He's keeping his mug on TV and his voice on radio, and seldom a day goes by that I don't see email promo stuff from him -- stuff which I assume goes to a VERY large list. He stays at 35%, but with a definite bullet.

A lot can change in three years, but as of right now my guess is that we'll end up seeing a Huckabee/Gingrich faceoff for the GOP's 2012 nomination. Huckabee will play it populist and "outside the Beltway;" Gingrich will trot out the latest version of his highbrow/wonky take on Reaganism.

Election 2012: Bush, upgraded

Tucker Carlson interviews Jeb Bush, and Bush displays perfect pitch for a 2012 prospect dipping his toe in the 2009 waters.

In response to the "why not run?" bait:

Frankly I don't wake up each day assuming I'm the solution to life's problems. I think there will be emerging people who have a combination of great ideas, a great ability to communicate those ideas in a relevant way to people, and the ambition necessary to run. You need all three. I am content to be part of the larger effort that creates the fertile ground for those candidates to run.

Circumspect, not coquettish. Door's open a crack, but no wink, wink, nudge play.

This is good stuff, and it's candidate stuff:

- He postures the GOP as having a communication problem, not an ideological problem.

- He never lets the audience forget that he has eight years of experience in the executive saddle as governor of a large state.

- He reminds everyone that he's a Republican who can make bank with the growing Hispanic voter demographic.

- He gets some "regular guy" bumps in there, referring to the necessity of providing for his family's financial security and letting Carlson note that he drove himself to the interview. With his last name, that's something he has to work at -- his personal net worth upon leaving the governorship was reportedly "only" $1.3 million, down from a high of $2 million, but he comes from a monied family (Dad's net worth is in the $25 million range).

- When asked about GOP leaders, he name-checks Gingrich and Jindal, but pointedly ignores the three people most likely to be identified as 2012 contenders at the moment: Huckabee, Palin and Romney.

I wouldn't say he's running, but he's definitely not definitely not running. He's being mindful of what to say and what not to say, keeping his options open and building his cred with modest presentation instead of flash. In other words, good early strategy.

Over on the right you'll see my little "contenders" graphic again, this time with my percentage evaluations of each candidate's chance of securing the 2012 GOP nomination. In subsequent iterations, the numbers will shift as my opinion shifts.

[follow this topic at memeorandum]

Election 2012: Early GOP Handicapping

The 2012 GOP nomination field is already starting to come together in peoples' minds. Is it too early to start eyeballing the horses and making tentative predictions? I don't think it is.

The graphic to the right features eight faces that fit. No, they haven't declared, and some of them may not do so, but that doesn't mean they're not in contention. They've all got buzz to one degree or another as of right now; no one would be surprised to see any or all of them throw their hats in the ring.

I removed one face from the field before I even got the graphic together: Mississippi governor Haley Barbour's. He's apparently already on the stump, but IMO he's just got too much baggage to make it past the Iowa straw poll. I could be wrong. You may see him in future "field pics."

From the top:

Jeb Bush: He's the first Republican to ever manage election to a second term as governor of Florida. He's popular with conservatives. He's popular with Hispanic voters, and especially with the Cuban community. I don't think he'll run, though. Even four years of Obama is probably not going to be enough to give the Bush name a nice ring to the American ear again. It would be an uphill run, and the Bush boys seem to prefer that "sense of inevitability" in their campaigns.

Newt Gingrich: He futzed around with the idea of running in 2008 -- so much so that by Decision Time, everyone was tired of his futzing and the other candidates had left him behind. I think he's learned his lesson, I think he'll get in the 2012 race early and without reservations, and I think he'll do well. I don't think he'll win the nomination, but he's one of three candidates whom I believe might win it.

Mike Huckabee: This is the man to beat. You don't believe me, do you? Just you wait and see. He's got the executive experience (two terms as governor of Arkansas). He's got the populist chops. He gets "I told you so" credit for staying in longer and fighting John McCain harder than any other Republican in 2008. He's keeping his mug out front, but not so far out front as to get it slapped silly in the off-season. When he comes out ... well, like I said, just you wait and see.

Bobby Jindal: Maybe he'll run, maybe he won't. If he does, he'll be an early cull. Unfortunately, he probably won't have a shot at the VP slot, either, since the nominee will be a southern male and will be looking for a running mate from the north or west.

Sarah Palin: I won't be surprised if she runs. I will be surprised if she makes it past the first turn in the primaries as more than comic relief. Even if she manages to hold on to her weird "rock star" shininess for two more years (highly unlikely -- she passed out of "Las Vegas Comeback Special Elvis" territory some time ago and is headed for "Anyone Seen Big White Jumpsuit Elvis? I Think He's In The Bathroom ..." country at ludicrous speed), she'll be running against opponents who haven't resigned from public office twice without completing their terms, and who will be very keen to mention that at every opportunity. She's toast.

Tim Pawlenty: He's going to run. He's going to lose. But if he can avoid getting caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy or dropping the f-bomb in debate, he's got a good shot at the veep nomination. The top slot will go to a conservative southerner; a northern/midwest governor who tries to sell himself as "moderate" fills the bill out nicely.

Mitt Romney: Not a chance. I've already explained why.

Fred Thompson: My third "contender" pick -- but see "Gingrich, Newt" above and double the emphasis. If he wants in, he can't afford to dick around until late 2011 before saying so. He needs to announce early, and be out there throwing hands even earlier (like, say, yesterday). Otherwise, Huckabee and Gingrich will steal a march on him and his campaign will, once again, be over before it gets started.

Right now my money's on Huckabee ... but the campaigns won't be in full swing for two more years and a lot can change in two years. If "national security" issues move back to the forefront in a big way, Wonk Hawk from Hell Newt Gingrich or solid, comforting, "Reaganesque" Thompson may get an inside track.

Well, there you have it. That's the way I see it as of today. I'm sure that I'll see it differently as things progress, and that I'll say so ... but I don't memory hole my predictions when I get it wrong. If I've got it way wrong, well, this post will remain here for you to make fun of in perpetuity.

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Photo Credits:

Jeb Bush -- Government of Florida, public domain
Newt Gingrich -- KyleCassidy, GNU Free Documentation License
Mike Huckabee -- David Ball, used with permission
Bobby Jindal -- Government, public domain
Sarah Palin -- J.delanoy, Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike 3.0
Tim Pawlenty -- Office of Governor Tim Pawlenty, used with permission
Mitt Romney -- Mitt Romney Media, Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
Fred Thompson -- US Senate, public domain