Tuesday, May 03, 2022

My Very First Reaction to the Leaked SCOTUS Abortion Opinion ...

... is that it immediately up-ends the process of predicting this November's midterm election outcomes.

Basically every "toss-up" race for US House and Senate will now "lean Democrat," and every "leans mildly Republican" race will now move into "toss-up" territory.

The decision (if in fact it's for real) might as well have been custom-made for the express purpose of energizing Democratic turnout and depressing Republican turnout.

I already thought the Democrats had a better chance of holding on to their Senate majority than most analysts seemed to believe. Now I'm tempted to say it's a lock. I haven't looked closely at the House races yet, but whatever the Republicans' chances were, they just diminished.

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