- The objective of the Russian invasion is to secure the "separatist areas" in the Donbas region, aka the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, and a land corridor along the Sea of Azov to connect the DPR/LPR to Crimea.
- All other Russian operations, including the supposed attempt to take Kyiv, are feints intended to "fix" Ukrainian forces in the west so that they can't interfere with (1).
- When and if (1) is accomplished, Putin will declare victory, pull his forces in western Ukraine out, and unilaterally assert a new border with Ukraine incorporating Russian annexation of those LPR/DPR/land corridor takings.
As of yesterday, per Axios:
Top Russian military officials said Friday the operation in Ukraine was entering a new phase focused on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Donbas region, claiming Russia's assault on cities like Kyiv was part of a strategy to distract Ukrainian forces.
Does that mean I was right?
Well, maybe.
The three possibilities, as I see it, are:
- Yes, I was right. The DPR/LPR/land corridor objectives are the real ones, everything else was just a feint; or
- I was wrong, but the Kyiv attack, etc. have gone so badly that the Russians are going sour grapes -- pretending those other things were just feints and lowering their expectations; or
- This statement is the feint, and they're about to go all-out to e.g. take Kyiv.
Naturally, I think that (1) is the case. But as always, I could be wrong.
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