Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Never Say Never Again Again?

Back in 1997, I noticed a new book advertised in the pages of Liberty magazine (it was edited by the late R.W. Bradford, whom I was later fortunate to be befriended by): Why Bill Clinton Will Be The Last Democrat Americans Elect President (not an affiliate link).

Even at the time I first saw that title, I was rather skeptical of the claim.

Now, in 2020, I hear people saying that Trump will be the last Republican Americans elect president.

Unless the US political system falls completely apart in a big, big way over the next decade or so, I doubt that's true.

Since FDR died, the White House has never gone more than 12 years without one of the two "major" parties replacing the other in it, and that 12 years (Reagan and Bush 41) is an outlier. The other outlier is four years (Carter and Trump). Usually (Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy/LBJ, Nixon/Ford, Clinton, Bush 43, Obama) one party controls the White House for eight years before the other takes it.

I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP became competitive for the presidency again as early as 2028, and I would be surprised if it wasn't competitive for the presidency again by 2036.

Would I love to see the GOP go the way of the Whigs, hopefully to be replaced by the Libertarian Party? You betcha.

But I won't be putting money into prediction market bets on that happening. I think it will take more than this round of weirdness and fuckery to get there.

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