Wednesday, January 01, 2020

My Latest PredictIt Buy

Actually it's an offer (just put in, no takers yet) of 43 cents per share for 23 shares of "yes" to the question "Will the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucuses also win New Hampshire?"

I don't know that I'll ride this one out, but here's my logic:

Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, and Warren are all clustered fairly close together in both states per the RealClearPolitics polling averages.

I expect the price to go up under one of two circumstances:

  1. One of those four candidates starts to pull noticeably ahead in Iowa before the caucus and people start to sense momentum (price goes up before the caucus)
  2. One of those four candidates wins in Iowa (price goes up between the caucus and the primary)

I only expect the price to go down if someone who's just got no mojo at all in New Hampshire suddenly surges big-time in Iowa (Klobuchar's the most likely suspect there).

So I expect to sell at a profit (probably a relatively small one) either before the caucus or between the caucus and primary.

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